Solving constraints within a graph based dependency model by digitising a new process of incrementally casting concrete structures

The mechanisation of incrementally casting concrete structures can reduce the economic and environmental cost of the formwork which produces them. Low-tech versions of these forms have been designed to produce structures with cross-sectional continuity, but the design and implementation of complex adaptable formworks remains untenable for smaller projects. Addressing these feasibility issues by digitally modelling these systems is problematic because constraint solvers are the obvious method of modelling the adaptable formwork, but cannot acknowledge the hierarchical relationships created by assembling multiple instances of the system. This thesis hypothesises that these opposing relationships may not be completely disparate and that simple dependency relationships can be used to solve constraints if the real procedure of constructing the system is replicated digitally. The behaviour of the digital model was correlated with the behaviour of physical prototypes of the system which were refined based on digital explorations of its possibilities. The generated output is assessed physically on the basis of its efficiency and ease of assembly and digitally on the basis that permutations can be simply described and potentially built in reality. One of the columns generated by the thesis will be cast by the redesigned system in Lyon at the first F2F (file to factory) continuum workshop

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox and Discovery Criteria in High Energy Physics

The Jeffreys-Lindley paradox displays how the use of a p-value (or number of standard deviations z) in a frequentist hypothesis test can lead to an inference that is radically different from that of a Bayesian hypothesis test in the form advocated by Harold Jeffreys in the 1930s and common today. The setting is the test of a well-specified null hypothesis (such as the Standard Model of elementary particle physics, possibly with "nuisance parameters") versus a composite alternative (such as the Standard Model plus a new force of nature of unknown strength). The p-value, as well as the ratio of the likelihood under the null hypothesis to the maximized likelihood under the alternative, can strongly disfavor the null hypothesis, while the Bayesian posterior probability for the null hypothesis can be arbitrarily large. The academic statistics literature contains many impassioned comments on this paradox, yet there is no consensus either on its relevance to scientific communication or on its correct resolution. The paradox is quite relevant to frontier research in high energy physics. This paper is an attempt to explain the situation to both physicists and statisticians, in the hope that further progress can be made.Comment: v4: Continued editing for clarity. Figure added. v5: Minor fixes to biblio. Same as published version except for minor copy-edits, Synthese (2014). v6: fix typos, and restore garbled sentence at beginning of Sec 4 to v

Negatively Biased Relevant Subsets Induced by the Most-Powerful One-Sided Upper Confidence Limits for a Bounded Physical Parameter

Suppose an observable x is the measured value (negative or non-negative) of a true mean mu (physically non-negative) in an experiment with a Gaussian resolution function with known fixed rms deviation s. The most powerful one-sided upper confidence limit at 95% C.L. is UL = x+1.64s, which I refer to as the "original diagonal line". Perceived problems in HEP with small or non-physical upper limits for x<0 historically led, for example, to substitution of max(0,x) for x, and eventually to abandonment in the Particle Data Group's Review of Particle Physics of this diagonal line relationship between UL and x. Recently Cowan, Cranmer, Gross, and Vitells (CCGV) have advocated a concept of "power constraint" that when applied to this problem yields variants of diagonal line, including UL = max(-1,x)+1.64s. Thus it is timely to consider again what is problematic about the original diagonal line, and whether or not modifications cure these defects. In a 2002 Comment, statistician Leon Jay Gleser pointed to the literature on recognizable and relevant subsets. For upper limits given by the original diagonal line, the sample space for x has recognizable relevant subsets in which the quoted 95% C.L. is known to be negatively biased (anti-conservative) by a finite amount for all values of mu. This issue is at the heart of a dispute between Jerzy Neyman and Sir Ronald Fisher over fifty years ago, the crux of which is the relevance of pre-data coverage probabilities when making post-data inferences. The literature describes illuminating connections to Bayesian statistics as well. Methods such as that advocated by CCGV have 100% unconditional coverage for certain values of mu and hence formally evade the traditional criteria for negatively biased relevant subsets; I argue that concerns remain. Comparison with frequentist intervals advocated by Feldman and Cousins also sheds light on the issues.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figure

One Financial Education Intervention, Two Performances, What Happened?

It is often expected that one financial education intervention should offer similar performance in changing financial behaviour to determine its role in social marketing. Behaviour change takes time and it needs different approaches to different segmentations. It involves multifaceted aspects and cannot always be controlled by the organisers. If the performances of an intervention are not consistent, should we reject or endorse it? This paper takes a critical view of the application of social marketing mix concepts from 4Ps and segmentation in designing and assessing the impact of a financial education intervention. The short course “Managing My Money” (the MMM) was designed and delivered through direct and online channels. Using the dataset from a large research project of the True Potential Centre for the Public Understanding of Finance (PUFin) at the Open University in co-operation with the Coventry University, funded by the Money Advice Service’s What Works Fund. There were diversified experiments to explore the impact of one financial education intervention which distributed to specific target audiences in different places. This seeks to explore what works and does not work for different populations in improving their personal financial behaviours including saving and borrowing. This paper selected the datasets of 438 members of New Central Credit Union (NCCU) from 1953 NCCU members and 1257 members of Coventry District Credit Union (CDCU) from 1322 CDCU members who lived in Coventry and categorised into neighbourhood segmentation by wards. The purpose is to explore how a specific neighbourhood environment might influence individual saving and borrowing behaviour. Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) was used to design the experiment and to assess the impact of the intervention toward saving and borrowing behaviours among the control and experimental group. The experimental group received either face-to-face intervention at a workshop or printed materials and an online course, while the control group did not receive any of these treatments. This paper offers a case study to explain why one financial education intervention does not always offer the repeated performance through the lens of social marketing. Some findings are useful to social marketers and educators, in the use and evaluation of a financial education intervention, to promote desirable saving and borrowing behaviours. Changing borrowing behaviour is more multifaceted than changing saving behaviour. It requires a sensitive approach in dealing with simultaneous savers and debtors. Individual financial capacity constrains their saving and borrowing behaviour change. Neighbourhood segmentation is useful in explaining the limitations when intervening in a financial behaviour change

The Voting Behaviour of the Irish parliamentary party on social issues in the House of Commons 1881-90

Most studies of the Irish Parliamentary party and its leaders have, understandably, focused on issues directly concerning Ireland. There have been relatively few studies of the role of the Parliamentary party in broader British politics, particularly in relation to social issues. In order to assess this issue over a period of time, this study examines the division lists of the House of Commons in relation to votes on selected ‘social’ issues in the 1880s. An analysis of the Irish Parliamentary party’s voting record in the 1880s throws some light on the party’s broader views on social issues. The study examines the voting behaviour of the Irish Parliamentary party in the context of that of the other major political groupings in the 1880s Parliament. It looks in particular at i) The extent to which the Irish party members actually voted in comparison with MPs overall; ii) the internal cohesion of the Irish Parliamentary party votes, i.e. the extent to which those members voting expressed the same views; iii) their ‘likeness’ with the voting patterns of other major political groupings, i.e. the extent to which the Irish party votes were in line with other groups; and iv) the extent to which (if any) this changed over time.Roll-call voting analysis; Irish parliamentary party; social issues; nineteenth century Irish history

Community perspectives: the Nevada Bankers Collaborative

Since 2002, bankers in Nevada have been working together to pool resources with the goal of increasing the impact of their community development dollars. This article tracks the progress and activities of the Nevada Bankers Collaborative and discusses some of the lessons learned over the past eight years of community development work.Small business - Finance