Estimation of the basic reproduction number of measles during an outbreak in a partially vaccinated population

From March to July 1996 a measles outbreak occurred in northern Luxembourg with 110 reported cases centered around two primary schools (85 cases) and the surrounding community (25 cases). Eighty four suspected cases were confirmed serologically. Vaccine coverage was estimated from questionnaire-based surveys at the two primary schools to be 70 and 76%, respectively. Vaccine efficacy during the outbreak was estimated to be 94.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 90·4–97·0]. Using the information from the school surveys, we obtained estimates of the basic reproduction number of measles of 7·7 (95% CI 4·4–11·0) and 6·2 (95% CI 3·5–8·9), respectively. Assuming a 95% vaccine efficacy, these estimates correspond to minimal vaccine coverages of 91·6% (95% CI 81·4–95·7) and 88·3% (95% CI 75·5–93·4) which would have been necessary to minimize the chances of a major outbreak occurring. We can confirm that major outbreaks in similar school settings can only be prevented if vaccination coverage exceeds 90%

Human papillomavirus vaccination coverage in Luxembourg : implications of lowering and restricting target age groups

Background: In Luxembourg, a national Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme was introduced in 2008, targeting 12-17 year old girls offering a choice of bivalent or quadrivalent vaccine free of charge. In 2015, the programme was changed offering the bivalent vaccine only to 11-13 year old girls. The aim of this study was to evaluate the HPV vaccination coverage, to assess the impact of age target changes and compare vaccination coverage to other European countries. Methods: Anonymous HPV vaccination records consisting of individual vaccine doses obtained free of charge in pharmacies between 2008 and 2016 were extracted from the Luxembourgish Social Security database. Additional aggregate tables by nationality and municipality were analysed. Results: Of the target cohort of 39,610 girls born between 1991 and 2003 residing in Luxembourg, 24,550 (62.0%) subjects obtained at least one dose, 22,082 (55.7%) obtained at least two doses, and 17,197 (43.4%) obtained three doses of HPV vaccine. The mean age at first dose was 13.7 years during 200814 and 12.7 years in 2016 after the age target change. Coverage varied significantly by nationality (p < 0.0001): Portuguese (80%), former Yugoslays (74%), Luxembourgish (54%), Belgian (52%), German (47%), French (39%) and other, nationalities (51%). Coverage varied also by geographical region, with lower rates (<50%) noted in some Northern and Central areas of Luxembourg (range: 38% to 78%). Conclusion: Overall HPV vaccination coverage in Luxembourg is moderate and varied by nationality and region. The policy changes in 2015 did not have a substantial impact except lowering age at initiating vaccination. Options to improve coverage deserve further investigation

Estimating infectious disease parameters from data on social contacts and serological status

In dynamic models of infectious disease transmission, typically various mixing patterns are imposed on the so-called Who-Acquires-Infection-From-Whom matrix (WAIFW). These imposed mixing patterns are based on prior knowledge of age-related social mixing behavior rather than observations. Alternatively, one can assume that transmission rates for infections transmitted predominantly through non-sexual social contacts, are proportional to rates of conversational contact which can be estimated from a contact survey. In general, however, contacts reported in social contact surveys are proxies of those events by which transmission may occur and there may exist age-specific characteristics related to susceptibility and infectiousness which are not captured by the contact rates. Therefore, in this paper, transmission is modeled as the product of two age-specific variables: the age-specific contact rate and an age-specific proportionality factor, which entails an improvement of fit for the seroprevalence of the varicella-zoster virus (VZV) in Belgium. Furthermore, we address the impact on the estimation of the basic reproduction number, using non-parametric bootstrapping to account for different sources of variability and using multi-model inference to deal with model selection uncertainty. The proposed method makes it possible to obtain important information on transmission dynamics that cannot be inferred from approaches traditionally applied hitherto.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure

Hypertension and Obesity in Adults Living in a High HIV Prevalence Rural Area in South Africa

Hypertension and excess body weight are major risk factors of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in developing countries. In countries with a high HIV prevalence, it is unknown how increased antiretroviral treatment and care (ART) coverage has affected the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and hypertension. We conducted a health survey in 2010 based on the WHO STEPwise approach in 14,198 adult resident participants of a demographic surveillance area in rural South Africa to investigate factors associated with hypertension and excess weight including HIV infection and ART status. Women had a significantly higher median body mass index (BMI) than men (26.4 vs. 21.2 kg/$m^2$, p<0.001). The prevalence of obesity (BMI≥30 kg/$m^2$) in women (31.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 30.2–32.4) was 6.5 times higher than in men (4.9%, 95% CI 4.1–5.7), whereas prevalence of hypertension (systolic or diastolic blood pressure≥140 or 90 mm Hg, respectively) was 1.4 times higher in women than in men (28.5% vs 20.8%, p<0.001). In multivariable regression analysis, both hypertension and obesity were significantly associated with sex, age, HIV and ART status. The BMI of women and men on ART was on average 3.8 (95% CI 3.2–3.8) and 1.7 (95% CI 0.9–2.5) kg/$m^2$ lower than of HIV-negative women and men, respectively. The BMI of HIV-infected women and men not on ART was on average 1.2 (95% CI 0.8–1.6) and 0.4 (95% CI -0.1–0.9) kg/m2 lower than of HIV-negative women and men, respectively. Obesity was a bigger risk factor for hypertension in men (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.99, 95% CI 2.00–4.48) than in women (aOR 1.64, 95% CI 1.39–1.92) and overweight (25≤BMI<30) was a significant risk factor for men only (aOR 1.53 95% CI 1.14–2.06). Our study suggests that, cardiovascular risk factors of hypertension and obesity differ substantially between women and men in rural South Africa

Prevalence of antibodies against canine distemper virus among red foxes in Luxembourg.

Canine distemper virus (CDV) has a wide host spectrum, and during the past years, distemper has been observed in species that were previously not considered to be susceptible. In this study, we investigated the prevalence of CDV-specific antibodies in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) sampled between May and November 1997. About 9 to 13% of the Luxembourg red fox population is positive for antibodies against CDV. Thus a sizeable proportion of red foxes has been exposed to CDV in the wild. The significance of CDV in red foxes is discussed

Effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination in Luxembourg

Background: In Luxembourg, the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program introduced in 2008, provided either bivalent (BV) or quadrivalent (QV) vaccines to girls aged 12-17 years. Here, we estimate the effectiveness of BV and QV vaccines combined and separately in reducing type-specific HPV prevalence eight years after the introduction of the vaccination program. Methods: A cross-sectional prevalence study was conducted among women aged 18-29 years in 2015-2017. Seven hundred sixteen participants were recruited at family planning centres or private gynaecology practices in Luxembourg. Vaccination records were verified in the social security database. Cervical samples were tested using the Anyplex II HPV28 assay. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated using logistic regression. Results: In total, 363/716 (50.7%) participants were HPV positive with any HPV and 209/716 (29.2%) with carcinogenic HPV genotypes. HPV vaccination offered high protection against HPV16/18 (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.13; 95% CI 0.03-0.63), HPV6/11 (AOR = 0.16; 95% CI 0.05-0.48) and cross-protection against HPV31/33/45 (AOR = 0.41; 95% CI 0.18-0.94). The AORs were generally enhanced when only considering vaccination before sexual debut corresponding to AORs: 0.05 (95% CI 0.00-0.88), 0.08 (95% CI 0.02-0.36) and 0.20 (0.06-0.65) against HPV16/18, HPV6/11 and HPV31/33/45, respectively. We observed significant protection against carcinogenic genotypes included in nonavalent vaccine for BV (AOR = 0.29; 95% CI 0.13-0.67), but not for QV (AOR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.47-1.40) (heterogeneity Chi(2) P = 0.04). Conclusions: Our study suggests high effectiveness of HPV vaccination against HPV6/11, HPV16/18 and a crossprotection against HPV31/33/45. Vaccination effectiveness was slightly higher for women vaccinated before sexual debut

Investigating the host specificity of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli by sequencing gyrase subunit A

Abstract This research evaluated the association between socio demographic characteristics and housing satisfaction of Iranian immigrant’s homeowners in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Data was collected from 325 participants through self-administered questionnaire.  Pearson’s correlation analysis revealed  monthly income of first income earner, total earned income earner, price of residential unit, number of bed room, time owners have been in Malaysia,  had positive significant relationship with housing satisfaction of Iranian immigrants homeowners  in  the study region. Nevertheless, there was no significant association between age, number of bath room, number of dining room, number of living room, length of residence in current house, monthly income of second income earner, number of income earner, number of children, and size of household and housing satisfaction of the immigrant owners’ households. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that housing satisfaction differed between level of education, level of income, and level of price of residential unit. Independent t-test shown that there was significant difference between gender and housing satisfaction of the participants. These associations indicate that those who are females, higher income, higher education, higher residential unit with more room are more satisfied. It is recommended planners and policy makers should prominence on development of housing conditions of immigrant’s households to increase their housing satisfaction. Keywords:background characteristic, housing satisfaction, housing, immigrant’s homeowner’s household

Generalisation of COVID-19 incidences provides a biased view of the actual epidemiological situation.

peer reviewe

Complete genome sequence of a novel human gammapapillomavirus isolated from a cervical swab in Luxembourg

A novel human papillomavirus genotype was detected in a cervical swab specimen by next-generation sequencing after rolling circular amplification. It was fully cloned and characterized. The L1 open reading frame showed 77% nucleotide similarity with the closest genotype, HPV101, belonging to the gamma-6 species