Scraping social media photos posted in Kenya and elsewhere to detect and analyze food types

Monitoring population-level changes in diet could be useful for education and for implementing interventions to improve health. Research has shown that data from social media sources can be used for monitoring dietary behavior. We propose a scrape-by-location methodology to create food image datasets from Instagram posts. We used it to collect 3.56 million images over a period of 20 days in March 2019. We also propose a scrape-by-keywords methodology and used it to scrape ∼30,000 images and their captions of 38 Kenyan food types. We publish two datasets of 104,000 and 8,174 image/caption pairs, respectively. With the first dataset, Kenya104K, we train a Kenyan Food Classifier, called KenyanFC, to distinguish Kenyan food from non-food images posted in Kenya. We used the second dataset, KenyanFood13, to train a classifier KenyanFTR, short for Kenyan Food Type Recognizer, to recognize 13 popular food types in Kenya. The KenyanFTR is a multimodal deep neural network that can identify 13 types of Kenyan foods using both images and their corresponding captions. Experiments show that the average top-1 accuracy of KenyanFC is 99% over 10,400 tested Instagram images and of KenyanFTR is 81% over 8,174 tested data points. Ablation studies show that three of the 13 food types are particularly difficult to categorize based on image content only and that adding analysis of captions to the image analysis yields a classifier that is 9 percent points more accurate than a classifier that relies only on images. Our food trend analysis revealed that cakes and roasted meats were the most popular foods in photographs on Instagram in Kenya in March 2019.Accepted manuscrip

Combining Search, Social Media, and Traditional Data Sources to Improve Influenza Surveillance

We present a machine learning-based methodology capable of providing real-time ("nowcast") and forecast estimates of influenza activity in the US by leveraging data from multiple data sources including: Google searches, Twitter microblogs, nearly real-time hospital visit records, and data from a participatory surveillance system. Our main contribution consists of combining multiple influenza-like illnesses (ILI) activity estimates, generated independently with each data source, into a single prediction of ILI utilizing machine learning ensemble approaches. Our methodology exploits the information in each data source and produces accurate weekly ILI predictions for up to four weeks ahead of the release of CDC's ILI reports. We evaluate the predictive ability of our ensemble approach during the 2013-2014 (retrospective) and 2014-2015 (live) flu seasons for each of the four weekly time horizons. Our ensemble approach demonstrates several advantages: (1) our ensemble method's predictions outperform every prediction using each data source independently, (2) our methodology can produce predictions one week ahead of GFT's real-time estimates with comparable accuracy, and (3) our two and three week forecast estimates have comparable accuracy to real-time predictions using an autoregressive model. Moreover, our results show that considerable insight is gained from incorporating disparate data streams, in the form of social media and crowd sourced data, into influenza predictions in all time horizon

Measuring patient-perceived quality of care in US hospitals using Twitter

BACKGROUND: Patients routinely use Twitter to share feedback about their experience receiving healthcare. Identifying and analysing the content of posts sent to hospitals may provide a novel real-time measure of quality, supplementing traditional, survey-based approaches. OBJECTIVE: To assess the use of Twitter as a supplemental data stream for measuring patient-perceived quality of care in US hospitals and compare patient sentiments about hospitals with established quality measures. DESIGN: 404 065 tweets directed to 2349 US hospitals over a 1-year period were classified as having to do with patient experience using a machine learning approach. Sentiment was calculated for these tweets using natural language processing. 11 602 tweets were manually categorised into patient experience topics. Finally, hospitals with ≥50 patient experience tweets were surveyed to understand how they use Twitter to interact with patients. KEY RESULTS: Roughly half of the hospitals in the US have a presence on Twitter. Of the tweets directed toward these hospitals, 34 725 (9.4%) were related to patient experience and covered diverse topics. Analyses limited to hospitals with ≥50 patient experience tweets revealed that they were more active on Twitter, more likely to be below the national median of Medicare patients (p<0.001) and above the national median for nurse/patient ratio (p=0.006), and to be a non-profit hospital (p<0.001). After adjusting for hospital characteristics, we found that Twitter sentiment was not associated with Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS) ratings (but having a Twitter account was), although there was a weak association with 30-day hospital readmission rates (p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Tweets describing patient experiences in hospitals cover a wide range of patient care aspects and can be identified using automated approaches. These tweets represent a potentially untapped indicator of quality and may be valuable to patients, researchers, policy makers and hospital administrators

A systematic review of studies on forecasting the dynamics of influenza outbreaks

Forecasting the dynamics of influenza outbreaks could be useful for decision-making regarding the allocation of public health resources. Reliable forecasts could also aid in the selection and implementation of interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality due to influenza illness. This paper reviews methods for influenza forecasting proposed during previous influenza outbreaks and those evaluated in hindsight. We discuss the various approaches, in addition to the variability in measures of accuracy and precision of predicted measures. PubMed and Google Scholar searches for articles on influenza forecasting retrieved sixteen studies that matched the study criteria. We focused on studies that aimed at forecasting influenza outbreaks at the local, regional, national, or global level. The selected studies spanned a wide range of regions including USA, Sweden, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, United Kingdom, Canada, France, and Cuba. The methods were also applied to forecast a single measure or multiple measures. Typical measures predicted included peak timing, peak height, daily/weekly case counts, and outbreak magnitude. Due to differences in measures used to assess accuracy, a single estimate of predictive error for each of the measures was difficult to obtain. However, collectively, the results suggest that these diverse approaches to influenza forecasting are capable of capturing specific outbreak measures with some degree of accuracy given reliable data and correct disease assumptions. Nonetheless, several of these approaches need to be evaluated and their performance quantified in real-time predictions

Prediction of Disease and Phenotype Associations from Genome-Wide Association Studies

Genome wide association studies (GWAS) have proven useful as a method for identifying genetic variations associated with diseases. In this study, we analyzed GWAS data for 61 diseases and phenotypes to elucidate common associations based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP). The study was an expansion on a previous study on identifying disease associations via data from a single GWAS on seven diseases.Adjustments to the originally reported study included expansion of the SNP dataset using Linkage Disequilibrium (LD) and refinement of the four levels of analysis to encompass SNP, SNP block, gene, and pathway level comparisons. A pair-wise comparison between diseases and phenotypes was performed at each level and the Jaccard similarity index was used to measure the degree of association between two diseases/phenotypes. Disease relatedness networks (DRNs) were used to visualize our results. We saw predominant relatedness between Multiple Sclerosis, type 1 diabetes, and rheumatoid arthritis for the first three levels of analysis. Expected relatedness was also seen between lipid- and blood-related traits.The predominant associations between Multiple Sclerosis, type 1 diabetes, and rheumatoid arthritis can be validated by clinical studies. The diseases have been proposed to share a systemic inflammation phenotype that can result in progression of additional diseases in patients with one of these three diseases. We also noticed unexpected relationships between metabolic and neurological diseases at the pathway comparison level. The less significant relationships found between diseases require a more detailed literature review to determine validity of the predictions. The results from this study serve as a first step towards a better understanding of seemingly unrelated diseases and phenotypes with similar symptoms or modes of treatment