Primer on using neural networks for forecasting market variables

Author's OriginalAbility to forecast market variables is critical to analysts, economists and investors. Among other uses, neural networks are gaining in popularity in forecasting market variables. They are used in various disciplines and issues to map complex relationships. We present a primer for using neural networks for forecasting market variables in general, and in particular, forecasting volatility of the S&P 500 Index futures prices. We compare volatility forecasts from neural networks with implied volatility from S&P 500 Index futures options using the Barone-Adesi and Whaley (BAW) model for pricing American options on futures. Forecasts from neural networks outperform implied volatility forecasts. Volatility forecasts from neural networks are not found to be significantly different from realized volatility. Implied volatility forecasts are found to be significantly different from realized volatility in two of three cases. A revised version of this paper has since been published in the Journal of Business Research. Please use this version in your citations.Hamid, S. A. & Iqbal, Zahid. (2004). Using Neural Networks for Forecasting Volatility of S&P 500 Index Futures Prices. Journal of Business Research, 57(10), 1116-1125

Atribuciones causales y nivel educativo familiar en la comprensión del desempeño escolar en alumnos portugueses

Este artigo analisa o contributo específico do nível educativo familiar e das atribuições causais para o bom e fraco rendimento escolar dos alunos na explicação do seu desempenho nas disciplinas de Língua Portuguesa e de Matemática numa amostra de 2.082 alunos do ensino público de 11 escolas de Portugal, incluindo as Regiões Autónomas dos Açores e da Madeira. As atribuições causais foram avaliadas por meio do Questionário das Atribuições Causais para os Resultados Escolares (QARE). O nível educativo familiar foi estimado levando em conta o nível escolar do progenitor com maior habilitação escolar. As classificações obtidas pelos alunos nas disciplinas de língua portuguesa e matemática foram também examinadas. Os resultados apontam para correlações estatisticamente significativas, destacando as atribuições na capacidade para a explicação do rendimento escolar, situação que contrasta com a atribuição dos níveis de rendimento a variáveis externas ao aluno. A análise de regressão permite associar 34,5% da variância no rendimento conjunto em Língua Portuguesa e em Matemática no ensino básico, assim como 21,3% no ensino secundário, às dimensões atribucionais e ao nível educativo familiar. Implicações educacionais são derivadas a partir dos achados.This paper analyzes the contribution of both family educational level and causal attributions in explaining students´ academic performance in Mathematics and Portuguese Language in a sample of 2.082 public school students from mainland Portugal and the Azores and Madeira regions. Causal attributions were assessed by the Causal Attributions Questionnaire for School Results (QARE). The family educational level was estimated taking into account the educational level of the parent with higher academic degree. The academic grades obtained by students in mathematics and portuguese language were also considered. The results show statistically significant correlations between variables. Internal causal attributions such as capacity and study methods were predominant to explain school performance in the sample and stood out in contrast to external attributions explanations. Regression analyses revealed that 34.5% of the variance in the combined achievement on Portuguese Language and Mathematics in primary education and 21.3% in secondary education could be explained by both the attributional dimensions and family education level. Some educational implications are present taking these data.Este artículo analiza la contribución específica del nivel educativo familiar y de las atribuciones causales para el buen y el flaco rendimiento escolar de los alumnos en la explicación de su desempeño en las disciplinas de Lengua Portuguesa y Matemáticas en una muestra de 2.082 alumnos de enseñanza pública de 11 escuelas de Portugal, incluyendo las Regiones Autónomas de Açores y Madeira. Las atribuciones causales fueron evaluadas por medio del “Questionário das Atribuições Causais para os Resultados Escolares” (QARE). El nivel educativo familiar fue estimado teniendo en cuenta el nivel escolar del progenitor con mayor habilitación escolar. Las clasificaciones obtenidas por los alumnos en las disciplinas de lengua portuguesa y matemáticas fueron también examinadas. Los resultados señalaron correlaciones estadísticamente significativas, destacando las atribuciones en la capacidad para la explicación del rendimiento escolar, situación que contrasta con la atribución de los niveles de rendimiento a variables externas al alumno. El análisis de regresión permite asociar 34.5% de la variancia en el rendimiento conjunto de la Lengua Portuguesa y las Matemáticas en la enseñanza básica, así como 21.3% en la enseñanza secundaria, a las dimensiones de atribución y al nivel educativo familiar. Implicaciones educacionales son derivadas a partir de los hallazgos.Editora Universitária São Francisc

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Photoactive assemblies of organic compounds and biomolecules: drug-protein supramolecular systems

[EN] The properties of singlet and triplet excited states are strongly medium-dependent. Hence, these species constitute valuable tools as reporters to probe compartmentalised microenvironments, including drug@protein supramolecular systems. In the present review, the attention is focused on the photophysical properties of the probe drugs (rather than those of the protein chromophores) using transport proteins (serum albumins and 1-acid glycoproteins) as hosts. Specifically, fluorescence measurements allow investigating the structural and dynamic properties of biomolecules or their complexes. Thus, the emission quantum yields and the decay kinetics of the drug singlet excited states provide key information to determine important parameters such as the stoichiometry of the complex, the binding constant, the relative degrees of occupancy of the different compartments, etc. Application of the FRET concept allows determining donor-acceptor interchromophoric distances. In addition, anisotropy measurements can be related to the orientation of the drug within the binding sites, where the degrees of freedom for conformational relaxation are restricted. Transient absorption spectroscopy is also a potentially powerful tool to investigate the binding of drugs to proteins, where formation of encapsulated triplet excited states is favoured over other possible processes leading to ionic species (i. e. radical ions), and their photophysical properties are markedly sensitive to the microenvironment experienced within the protein binding sites. Even under aerobic conditions, the triplet lifetimes of protein-complexed drugs are remarkably long, which provides a broad dynamic range for identification of distinct triplet populations or for chiral discrimination. Specific applications of the laser flash photolysis technique include the determination of drug distribution among the bulk solution and the protein binding sites, competition of two types of proteins to bind a 3 drug, occurrence of drug-drug interactions within protein binding sites, enzymatic-like activity of the protein or determination of enantiomeric compositions. The use of proteins as supramolecular hosts modifies the photoreactivity of encapsulated substrates by providing protection against oxygen or other external reagents, by imposing conformational restrictions in the binding pockets, or by influencing the stereochemical outcome. In this review, a selected group of examples is presented including decarboxylation, dehalogenation, nucleophilic addition, dimerisation, oxidation, Norrish type II reaction, photo-Fries rearrangement and 6 electrocyclisationFinancial support from the Spanish Government (CTQ2010-14882, JCI-2011-09926, RyC-2007-00476), from the EU (PCIG12-GA-2012-334257), from the Universitat Politènica de València (SP20120757) and from the Consellería de Educació, Cultura i Esport (PROMETEOII/2013/005, GV/2013/051) is gratefully acknowledged.Vayá Pérez, I.; Lhiaubet-Vallet, VL.; Jiménez Molero, MC.; Miranda Alonso, MÁ. (2014). Photoactive assemblies of organic compounds and biomolecules: drug-protein supramolecular systems. Chemical Society Reviews. 43:4102-4122. https://doi.org/10.1039/C3CS60413FS410241224

Adjunctive rifampicin for Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (ARREST): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia is a common cause of severe community-acquired and hospital-acquired infection worldwide. We tested the hypothesis that adjunctive rifampicin would reduce bacteriologically confirmed treatment failure or disease recurrence, or death, by enhancing early S aureus killing, sterilising infected foci and blood faster, and reducing risks of dissemination and metastatic infection. METHODS: In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, adults (≥18 years) with S aureus bacteraemia who had received ≤96 h of active antibiotic therapy were recruited from 29 UK hospitals. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) via a computer-generated sequential randomisation list to receive 2 weeks of adjunctive rifampicin (600 mg or 900 mg per day according to weight, oral or intravenous) versus identical placebo, together with standard antibiotic therapy. Randomisation was stratified by centre. Patients, investigators, and those caring for the patients were masked to group allocation. The primary outcome was time to bacteriologically confirmed treatment failure or disease recurrence, or death (all-cause), from randomisation to 12 weeks, adjudicated by an independent review committee masked to the treatment. Analysis was intention to treat. This trial was registered, number ISRCTN37666216, and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: Between Dec 10, 2012, and Oct 25, 2016, 758 eligible participants were randomly assigned: 370 to rifampicin and 388 to placebo. 485 (64%) participants had community-acquired S aureus infections, and 132 (17%) had nosocomial S aureus infections. 47 (6%) had meticillin-resistant infections. 301 (40%) participants had an initial deep infection focus. Standard antibiotics were given for 29 (IQR 18-45) days; 619 (82%) participants received flucloxacillin. By week 12, 62 (17%) of participants who received rifampicin versus 71 (18%) who received placebo experienced treatment failure or disease recurrence, or died (absolute risk difference -1·4%, 95% CI -7·0 to 4·3; hazard ratio 0·96, 0·68-1·35, p=0·81). From randomisation to 12 weeks, no evidence of differences in serious (p=0·17) or grade 3-4 (p=0·36) adverse events were observed; however, 63 (17%) participants in the rifampicin group versus 39 (10%) in the placebo group had antibiotic or trial drug-modifying adverse events (p=0·004), and 24 (6%) versus six (2%) had drug interactions (p=0·0005). INTERPRETATION: Adjunctive rifampicin provided no overall benefit over standard antibiotic therapy in adults with S aureus bacteraemia. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

A multi-country test of brief reappraisal interventions on emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased negative emotions and decreased positive emotions globally. Left unchecked, these emotional changes might have a wide array of adverse impacts. To reduce negative emotions and increase positive emotions, we tested the effectiveness of reappraisal, an emotion-regulation strategy that modifies how one thinks about a situation. Participants from 87 countries and regions (n = 21,644) were randomly assigned to one of two brief reappraisal interventions (reconstrual or repurposing) or one of two control conditions (active or passive). Results revealed that both reappraisal interventions (vesus both control conditions) consistently reduced negative emotions and increased positive emotions across different measures. Reconstrual and repurposing interventions had similar effects. Importantly, planned exploratory analyses indicated that reappraisal interventions did not reduce intentions to practice preventive health behaviours. The findings demonstrate the viability of creating scalable, low-cost interventions for use around the world