Time-dependent Stochastic Modeling of Solar Active Region Energy

A time-dependent model for the energy of a flaring solar active region is presented based on a stochastic jump-transition model (Wheatland and Glukhov 1998; Wheatland 2008; Wheatland 2009). The magnetic free energy of the model active region varies in time due to a prescribed (deterministic) rate of energy input and prescribed (random) flare jumps downwards in energy. The model has been shown to reproduce observed flare statistics, for specific time-independent choices for the energy input and flare transition rates. However, many solar active regions exhibit time variation in flare productivity, as exemplified by NOAA active region AR 11029 (Wheatland 2010). In this case a time-dependent model is needed. Time variation is incorporated for two cases: 1. a step change in the rates of flare jumps; and 2. a step change in the rate of energy supply to the system. Analytic arguments are presented describing the qualitative behavior of the system in the two cases. In each case the system adjusts by shifting to a new stationary state over a relaxation time which is estimated analytically. The new model retains flare-like event statistics. In each case the frequency-energy distribution is a power law for flare energies less than a time-dependent rollover set by the largest energy the system is likely to attain at a given time. For Case 1, the model exhibits a double exponential waiting-time distribution, corresponding to flaring at a constant mean rate during two intervals (before and after the step change), if the average energy of the system is large. For Case 2 the waiting-time distribution is a simple exponential, again provided the average energy of the system is large. Monte Carlo simulations of Case~1 are presented which confirm the analytic estimates. The simulation results provide a qualitative model for observed flare statistics in active region AR 11029.Comment: 25 pages, 9 figure

Statistical Models for Solar Flare Interval Distribution in Individual Active Regions

This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems with a conventional procedure to derive probability density functions from any data set and propose a new procedure, which uses the maximum likelihood method and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to objectively compare some competing probability density functions. We found that lognormal and inverse Gaussian models are more likely models than the exponential model for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. The results suggest that solar flares do not occur randomly in time; rather, solar flare intervals appear to be regulated by solar flare mechanisms. We briefly mention a probabilistic solar flare forecasting method as an application of a solar flare interval distribution analysis.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Friction, order, and transverse pinning of a two-dimensional elastic lattice under periodic and impurity potentials

Frictional phenomena of two-dimensional elastic lattices are studied numerically based on a two-dimensional Frenkel-Kontorova model with impurities. It is shown that impurities can assist the depinning. We also investigate anisotropic ordering and transverse pinning effects of sliding lattices, which are characteristic of the moving Bragg glass state and/or transverse glass state. Peculiar velocity dependence of the transverse pinning is observed in the presence of both periodic and random potentials and discussed in the relation with growing order and discommensurate structures.Comment: RevTeX, 4 pages, 5 figures. to appear in Phys. Rev. B Rapid Commu

Finite element and experimental analyses of closure and contact bonding of pores during hot rolling of steel

The closure and contact bonding behavior of internal pores in steel slabs during hot rolling was studied using experiments and the finite element method (FEM). Effects of pore size and shape were investigated, and three different cases of pore closure results were observed: no closure, partial closure, and full closure. The FEM results well reproduced various closure events. Bonding strengths of unsuccessfully closed pores, measured by tensile tests, showed critical effects. Also, there was a difference in bonding strengths of several fully closed pores. Fracture surfaces showed that welded regions could be divided into three (not, partially, and perfectly) welded regions. The pressure-time curves obtained from the FEM results indicate that pore surface contact time and deformed surface length are important parameters in pore welding. Pore size, pore shape, time of pressure contact, and deformed surface length should be considered to completely eliminate pores in final products.ope

Determinants of disease penetrance in PRPF31-associated retinopathy

Retinitis pigmentosa 11 (RP11) is caused by dominant mutations in PRPF31, however a significant proportion of mutation carriers do not develop retinopathy. Here, we investigated the relationship between CNOT3 polymorphism, MSR1 repeat copy number and disease penetrance in RP11 patients and non-penetrant carriers (NPCs). We further characterized PRPF31 and CNOT3 expression in fibroblasts from eight RP11 patients and one NPC from a family carrying the c.1205C>T variant. Retinal organoids (ROs) and retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) were differentiated from induced pluripotent stem cells derived from RP11 patients, an NPC and a control subject. All RP11 patients were homozygous for the 3-copy MSR1 repeat in the PRPF31 promoter, while 3/5 NPCs carried a 4-copy MSR1 repeat. The CNOT3 rs4806718 genotype did not correlate with disease penetrance. PRFP31 expression declined with age in adult cadaveric retina. PRPF31 and CNOT3 expression was reduced in RP11 fibroblasts, RO and RPE compared with controls. Both RP11 and NPC RPE displayed shortened primary cilia compared with controls, however a subpopulation of cells with normal cilia lengths was present in NPC RPE monolayers. Our results indicate that RP11 non-penetrance is associated with the inheritance of a 4-copy MSR1 repeat, but not with CNOT3 polymorphisms

Transverse phase-locking in fully frustrated Josephson junction arrays: a new type of fractional giant steps

We study, analytically and numerically, phase locking of driven vortex lattices in fully-frustrated Josephson junction arrays at zero temperature. We consider the case when an ac current is applied {\it perpendicular} to a dc current. We observe phase locking, steps in the current-voltage characteristics, with a dependence on external ac-drive amplitude and frequency qualitatively different from the Shapiro steps, observed when the ac and dc currents are applied in parallel. Further, the critical current increases with increasing transverse ac-drive amplitude, while it decreases for longitudinal ac-drive. The critical current and the phase-locked current step width, increase quadratically with (small) amplitudes of the ac-drive. For larger amplitudes of the transverse ac-signal, we find windows where the critical current is hysteretic, and windows where phase locking is suppressed due to dynamical instabilities. We characterize the dynamical states around the phase-locking interference condition in the $IV$ curve with voltage noise, Lyapunov exponents and Poincar\'e sections. We find that zero temperature phase-locking behavior in large fully frustrated arrays is well described by an effective four plaquette model.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure

Microflares and the Statistics of X-ray Flares

This review surveys the statistics of solar X-ray flares, emphasising the new views that RHESSI has given us of the weaker events (the microflares). The new data reveal that these microflares strongly resemble more energetic events in most respects; they occur solely within active regions and exhibit high-temperature/nonthermal emissions in approximately the same proportion as major events. We discuss the distributions of flare parameters (e.g., peak flux) and how these parameters correlate, for instance via the Neupert effect. We also highlight the systematic biases involved in intercomparing data representing many decades of event magnitude. The intermittency of the flare/microflare occurrence, both in space and in time, argues that these discrete events do not explain general coronal heating, either in active regions or in the quiet Sun.Comment: To be published in Space Science Reviews (2011

Shrinking a large dataset to identify variables associated with increased risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection in Western Kenya

Large datasets are often not amenable to analysis using traditional single-step approaches. Here, our general objective was to apply imputation techniques, principal component analysis (PCA), elastic net and generalized linear models to a large dataset in a systematic approach to extract the most meaningful predictors for a health outcome. We extracted predictors for Plasmodium falciparum infection, from a large covariate dataset while facing limited numbers of observations, using data from the People, Animals, and their Zoonoses (PAZ) project to demonstrate these techniques: data collected from 415 homesteads in western Kenya, contained over 1500 variables that describe the health, environment, and social factors of the humans, livestock, and the homesteads in which they reside. The wide, sparse dataset was simplified to 42 predictors of P. falciparum malaria infection and wealth rankings were produced for all homesteads. The 42 predictors make biological sense and are supported by previous studies. This systematic data-mining approach we used would make many large datasets more manageable and informative for decision-making processes and health policy prioritization

Global Search for New Physics with 2.0/fb at CDF

Data collected in Run II of the Fermilab Tevatron are searched for indications of new electroweak-scale physics. Rather than focusing on particular new physics scenarios, CDF data are analyzed for discrepancies with the standard model prediction. A model-independent approach (Vista) considers gross features of the data, and is sensitive to new large cross-section physics. Further sensitivity to new physics is provided by two additional algorithms: a Bump Hunter searches invariant mass distributions for "bumps" that could indicate resonant production of new particles; and the Sleuth procedure scans for data excesses at large summed transverse momentum. This combined global search for new physics in 2.0/fb of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV reveals no indication of physics beyond the standard model.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures. Final version which appeared in Physical Review D Rapid Communication