Sensitivity is not an intrinsic property of a diagnostic test: empirical evidence from histological diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We aimed to provide empirical evidence of how spectrum effects can affect the sensitivity of histological assessment of <it>Helicobacter pylori </it>infection, which may contribute to explain the heterogeneity in prevalence estimates across populations with expectedly similar prevalence.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross-sectional evaluation of dyspeptic subjects undergoing upper digestive endoscopy, including collection of biopsy specimens from the greater curvature of the antrum for assessment of <it>H. pylori </it>infection by histopathological study and polymerase chain reaction (PCR), from Portugal (n = 106) and Mozambique (n = 102) following the same standardized protocol.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the Portuguese sample the prevalence of infection was 95.3% by histological assessment and 98.1% by PCR. In the Mozambican sample the prevalence was 63.7% and 93.1%, respectively. Among those classified as infected by PCR, the sensitivity of histological assessment was 96.2% among the Portuguese and 66.3% among the Mozambican. Among those testing positive by both methods, 5.0% of the Portuguese and 20.6% of the Mozambican had mild density of colonization.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study shows a lower sensitivity of histological assessment of <it>H. pylori </it>infection in Mozambican dyspeptic patients compared to the Portuguese, which may be explained by differences in the density of colonization, and may contribute to explain the heterogeneity in prevalence estimates across African settings.</p

The Association between Peptic Ulcer Disease and Gastric Cancer: Results from the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project Consortium

Simple Summary Gastric cancer (GC) is the fifth most common type of cancer and the fourth most common cause of cancer-related mortality. In this meta-analysis, we utilized SToP consortium data to investigate the association between gastric ulcer (GU) and duodenal ulcer (DU) and development of GC. Among 4106 GC cases and 6922 controls, we detected a positive association between GU and GC (OR = 3.04, 95% CI: 2.07-4.49). On the other hand, no significant association between DU and GC was detected (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.77-1.39). In the pooled analysis, incorporating 11 case-control studies revealed positive association between the gastric ulcer and risk of gastric cancer. Background. Gastric cancer (GC) is the fifth most common type of cancer and the fourth most common cause of cancer-related mortality. Although the risk of GC and peptic ulcer disease (PUD) is known to be increased by H. pylori infection, evidence regarding the direct relationship between PUD and GC across ethnicities is inconclusive. Therefore, we investigated the association between PUD and GC in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) consortium. Methods. History of peptic ulcer disease was collected using a structured questionnaire in 11 studies in the StoP consortium, including 4106 GC cases and 6922 controls. The two-stage individual-participant data meta-analysis approach was adopted to generate a priori. Unconditional logistic regression and Firth's penalized maximum likelihood estimator were used to calculate study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between gastric ulcer (GU)/duodenal ulcer (DU) and risk of GC. Results. History of GU and DU was thoroughly reported and used in association analysis, respectively, by 487 cases (12.5%) and 276 controls (4.1%), and 253 cases (7.8%) and 318 controls (6.0%). We found that GU was associated with an increased risk of GC (OR = 3.04, 95% CI: 2.07-4.49). No association between DU and GC risk was observed (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.77-1.39). Conclusions. In the pooled analysis of 11 case-control studies in a large consortium (i.e., the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) consortium), we found a positive association between GU and risk of GC and no association between DU and GC risk

The association between diabetes and gastric cancer

Background: Prior epidemiologic studies on the association between diabetes and gastric cancer risk provided inconclusive findings, while traditional, aggregate data meta-analyses were characterized by high between-study heterogeneity. Objective: To investigate the association between type 2 diabetes and gastric cancer using data from the 'Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project', an international consortium of more than 30 case-control and nested case-control studies, which is large and provides harmonized definition of participants' characteristics across individual studies. The data have the potential to minimize between-study heterogeneity and provide greater statistical power for subgroup analysis. Methods: We included 5592 gastric cancer cases and 12 477 controls from 14 studies from Europe, Asia, North America, and South America in a two-stage individual-participant data meta-analysis. Random-effect models were used to estimate summary odds ratios (ORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by pooling study-specific ORs. Results: We did not find an overall association between diabetes and gastric cancer (pooled OR = 1.01, 95% CI, 0.94-1.07). However, the risk of cardia gastric cancer was significantly higher among individuals with type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.16, 95% CI, 1.02-1.33). There was no association between diabetes and gastric cancer risk in strata of Helicobacter pylori infection serostatus, age, sex, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption, fruit/vegetable intake, gastric cancer histologic type, and source of controls. Conclusion: This study provides additional evidence that diabetes is unrelated to gastric cancer overall but may be associated with excess cardia gastric cancer risk

Fatores de risco cardiovascular em pessoas semabrigo e na população geral da cidade do Porto, Portugal

We described the distribution of risk factors for cardiovascular disease among homeless people living in the city of Porto, Portugal. Comparisons were made between subsamples of homeless people recruited in different settings and between the overall homeless sample group and a sample of the general population. All "houseless" individuals attending one of two homeless hostels or two institutions providing meal programs on specific days were invited to participate and were matched with subjects from the general population. We estimated sex, age and education-adjusted prevalence ratios or mean differences. The prevalence of previous illicit drug consumption and imprisonment was almost twice as high among the homeless from institutions providing meal programs. This group also showed lower mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Prevalence of smoking was almost 50% higher in the overall homeless group. Mean body mass index and waist circumference were also lower in the homeless group and its members were almost five times less likely to report dyslipidemia. Our findings contribute to defining priorities for interventions directed at this segment of society and to reducing inequalities in this extremely underprivileged populatio

Trends in obesity and diabetes across Africa from 1980 to 2014: an analysis of pooled population-based studies

Background: The 2016 Dar Es Salaam Call to Action on Diabetes and Other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) advocates national multi-sectoral NCD strategies and action plans based on available data and information from countries of sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. We estimated trends from 1980 to 2014 in age-standardized mean body mass index (BMI) and diabetes prevalence in these countries, in order to assess the co-progression and assist policy formulation. Methods: We pooled data from African and worldwide population-based studies which measured height, weight and biomarkers to assess diabetes status in adults aged ≥ 18 years. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate trends by sex for 200 countries and territories including 53 countries across five African regions (central, eastern, northern, southern and western), in mean BMI and diabetes prevalence (defined as either fasting plasma glucose of ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, history of diabetes diagnosis, or use of insulin or oral glucose control agents). Results: African data came from 245 population-based surveys (1.2 million participants) for BMI and 76 surveys (182 000 participants) for diabetes prevalence estimates. Countries with the highest number of data sources for BMI were South Africa (n = 17), Nigeria (n = 15) and Egypt (n = 13); and for diabetes estimates, Tanzania (n = 8), Tunisia (n = 7), and Cameroon, Egypt and South Africa (all n = 6). The age-standardized mean BMI increased from 21.0 kg/m2 (95% credible interval: 20.3–21.7) to 23.0 kg/m2 (22.7–23.3) in men, and from 21.9 kg/m2 (21.3–22.5) to 24.9 kg/m2 (24.6–25.1) in women. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes increased from 3.4% (1.5–6.3) to 8.5% (6.5–10.8) in men, and from 4.1% (2.0–7.5) to 8.9% (6.9–11.2) in women. Estimates in northern and southern regions were mostly higher than the global average; those in central, eastern and western regions were lower than global averages. A positive association (correlation coefficient ≃ 0.9) was observed between mean BMI and diabetes prevalence in both sexes in 1980 and 2014. Conclusions: These estimates, based on limited data sources, confirm the rapidly increasing burden of diabetes in Africa. This rise is being driven, at least in part, by increasing adiposity, with regional variations in observed trends. African countries’ efforts to prevent and control diabetes and obesity should integrate the setting up of reliable monitoring systems, consistent with the World Health Organization’s Global Monitoring System Framework

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks