Pert using Fuzzy variables and probability distribution function randomly selected

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely used for project management in real world applications. The aim of this paper is to simulate and analyze a PERT network under conditions of uncertainty though a hybrid model. The basic assumption is that a project under extreme conditions of uncertainty can be satisfactorily modelled by using simple fuzzy linguistic variables to estimate activities durations, and a probability distribution function randomly selected in order to measure the activity times. Fuzzy linguistic expressions are used to estimate the activity time. Activity parameters are calculated by using basic operations between triangular fuzzy numbers and centroid method with classical Beta PERT definition. For each activity time a probability distribution function is randomly selected from a set of four possible distributions commonly cited in the literature. Hypothetical projects with 4, 40, 400 and 4000 activities using the proposed model are analyzed; the project duration is estimated through Monte Carlo Simulation. Finally, results are analyzed and compared with classical Beta PERT technique

Proposta de modelo multicritério para avaliação de áreas potenciais para investimento industrial: abordagem MCDA-C: Proposal of a multicriteria model for evaluating potential areas for industrial investment: MCDA-C approach

A presente pesquisa propõe-se a elaborar um modelo multicritério de apoio à tomada de decisão para avaliação de áreas potenciais para investimento industrial observando-se possíveis impactos causados ao público-alvo bem como questões referentes ao desenvolvimento sustentável econômico, social e ambiental da região. Assim, a região analisada, situada ao nordeste catarinense, vem recebendo demanda crescente de potenciais investidores que buscam a melhor opção para viabilizar instalações fabris. Nesta mesma região encontra-se o Porto de Itapoá, cuja atividade está relacionada com o desenvolvimento de apoios estruturais industriais, logísticos, ambientais e de sistemas de informações integradas. Tendo em vista que vários fatores são necessários para a avaliação de áreas potenciais para o investimento industrial, optou-se na presente pesquisa pela elaboração de um modelo de apoio à decisão baseado na abordagem multicritério. Para avaliação foram definidas cinco regiões, das quais duas apresentaram índices considerados de ótimo potencial para instalação industrial. Também foi possível identificar os pontos fortes, fracos, ameaças e oportunidades, e relacionar com a preocupação voltada ao planejamento estratégico e a preservação dos recursos naturais da região analisada. Ao final da pesquisa apresenta-se recomendações para embasamento de planejamento estratégico voltado ao desenvolvimento urbano e industrial

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Pert using Fuzzy variables and probability distribution function randomly selected

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely used for project management in real world applications. The aim of this paper is to simulate and analyze a PERT network under conditions of uncertainty though a hybrid model. The basic assumption is that a project under extreme conditions of uncertainty can be satisfactorily modelled by using simple fuzzy linguistic variables to estimate activities durations, and a probability distribution function randomly selected in order to measure the activity times. Fuzzy linguistic expressions are used to estimate the activity time. Activity parameters are calculated by using basic operations between triangular fuzzy numbers and centroid method with classical Beta PERT definition. For each activity time a probability distribution function is randomly selected from a set of four possible distributions commonly cited in the literature. Hypothetical projects with 4, 40, 400 and 4000 activities using the proposed model are analyzed; the project duration is estimated through Monte Carlo Simulation. Finally, results are analyzed and compared with classical Beta PERT technique