Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30–79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30–79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306–359) million women and 317 (292–344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584–668) million women and 652 (604–698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55–62) of women and 49% (46–52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43–51) of women and 38% (35–41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20–27) for women and 18% (16–21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022 : a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

A list of authors and their affiliations appears online. A supplementary appendix is herewith attached.Background: Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods: We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI 2 SD above the median). Findings: From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation: The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.peer-reviewe

Is vigorous-intensity physical activity required for improving bone mass in adolescence?: Findings from a Brazilian birth cohort

Summary: The association between moderate and vigorous physical activity throughout adolescence and areal bone density (aBMD) at 18 years of age was evaluated. Vigorous-intensity physical activity at 11, 15, and 18 years was associated with aBMD in early adulthood, especially in boys. Cross-sectional analyses showed a positive association between moderate physical activity and aBMD. Introduction: To evaluate independent associations of moderate and vigorous physical activity (MPA, VPA) across adolescence with areal bone mineral density (aBMD). Methods: Physical activity (PA) was assessed at 11, 15, and 18 years of age by self-report and at 18 years by accelerometry in the 1993 Pelotas Birth Cohort Study. Time spent in MPA and VPA was determined using metabolic equivalents and specific cutoffs based on raw acceleration. Lumbar spine and femoral neck aBMD were measured by DXA at 18 years. Statistical analyses evaluated the association of MPA and VPA with aBMD, after adjusting for skin color, asset index, current height and age at menarche, and peak strain score (based on ground reaction forces of PA). Results: Lumbar spine and femoral neck aBMD were available for 3947 (49.9% of boys) and 3960 (49.6% of boys) individuals, respectively. Time spent in MPA at 11 and 15 years was not associated with aBMD. VPA at all time points was positively related to both lumbar spine and femoral neck aBMD in boys. Results were consistent for objectively measured VPA. Girls who achieved 75+ minutes/week of VPA in at least two follow-ups showed higher aBMD at 18 years of age. Boys who reached 75+ minutes/week of VPA at all follow-ups had on average 0.117 g/cm2 (95% CI: 0.090; 0.144) higher femoral neck aBMD than those who never achieved this threshold. Conclusions: Self-reported VPA but not MPA throughout adolescence was associated with aBMD. Recommendation for PA in young people should consider the importance of VPA

Association of modifiable risk factors and IL-6, CRP, and adiponectin: Findings from the 1993 Birth Cohort, Southern Brazil.

BackgroundThe literature on the relationship between lifestyle behaviors and inflammatory markers is scarce.MethodsA birth cohort was followed since birth up to 22 years in Southern Brazil. Interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP) and adiponectin were measured in nonfasting blood samples drawn at 18 and 22 years of age. Exposures including smoking, alcohol intake, physical inactivity and obesity, were collected at 15, 18 and 22 years. Cross sectional analyses were based on the number of follow-up visits with these exposures and the association with IL-6, CRP and adiponectin at 22 years old. We also carried out a longitudinal Generalized Least Squares (GLS) random-effects analysis with outcomes at 18 and at 22 years old. All analyses were adjusted for several covariates.ResultsThe sample comprised 3,479 cohort members at 22 years. The presence of obesity at ≥ 2 follow-ups showed the highest mean values (SE) for IL-6 [2.45 (1.05)] and CRP [3.74 (1.11)] and the lowest mean value for adiponectin [8.60 (0.37)] (adjusted analyses, females) compared with other exposures; the highest mean of IL-6 [1.65 (1.05)] and CRP [1.78 (1.11)] and the lowest mean of adiponectin [9.98 (0.38)] were for the number of follow-ups with ≥2 exposures compared to those with no exposures at any follow-up (adjusted analyses, females). The longitudinal analysis showed an increase in obesity associated with IL-6 and CRP in both sexes and an inverse association with adiponectin in females; smoking (in males) was associated with IL-6 and CRP, harmful alcohol intake was associated with CRP in males, and increased in physical activity was inversely associated with CRP in men.ConclusionWe concluded that obesity is the main exposure positively associated with IL-6 and CRP and inversely associated with adiponectin (mainly in females). Smoking is also associated with these markers in the longitudinal analysis (in males)

Are cytokines (IL-6, CRP and adiponectin) associated with bone mineral density in a young adult birth cohort?

Abstract Background Studies have shown that cytokines play a role in bone remodeling. Methods In 1993, all hospital births occurred in Pelotas (Brazil) were identified and a total of 5249 newborns were included in the present cohort. Sub-samples of this cohort were visited during childhood and all members were traced at 11, 15, 18 and 22 years old. At 18 and 22 years the following biomarkers were measured: IL-6, CRP and adiponectin (the last one in a sub-sample) and bone mineral density (BMD-mg/cm2) was evaluated at 22 years. Crude regression analysis as well as adjusted for confounders (birth weight, pregnancy maternal smoking, gestational age, skin color, schooling, income, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, medical diagnosis of asthma, diabetes and hypertension, BMI, height, calcium intake, corticosteroid use, age at menarche, insulin and testosterone) were performed between the three biomarkers and the whole-body, lumbar spine and femoral BMD. Results No statistical significant association was found between IL-6 and CRP with BMD, in males. Significant inverse association in the adjusted analysis, among females, was found for the highest tertiles of CRP at 22 y (beta − 15.2 mg/cm2; 95% CI: -25.4; − 4.9; p = 004), of CRP and IL-6 at 22 years (beta − 20.0 mg/cm2; 95% CI: -31.7; − 8.3; p = 0.003), and of IL-6 and CRP at both ages (beta − 20.3 mg/cm2; 95% CI: -38.0; − 2.5; p = 0.001) with total body BMD. Significant association, among males, was also found between the highest tertile of adiponectin at 22 y (beta − 23.3 mg/cm2; 95% CI: -35.5; − 11.1; p = < 001; beta − 22.5 mg/cm2; 95% CI: -42.9; − 2.2; p = 0.03; and beta − 31.8 mg/cm2; 95% CI: -55.5; − 9.1; p = 0.006) and total body, lumbar spine and femur neck BMD, respectively; and, among females, − 17.8 mg/cm2; 95% CI: -34.9; − 0.9; p = 0.033, with lumbar spine BMD. Conclusion CRP at 22 years, in females, seems to be a marker for total body BMD; adiponectin at 22 years is also a marker for BMD at the three sites, in males, and for lumbar spine BMD, in females

Happiness and depression in adolescence after maternal smoking during pregnancy: birth cohort study.

Prenatal cigarette smoke exposure may have adverse psychological effects on offspring. The objective was to assess the association between parental smoking during pregnancy and offspring happiness at age 18, as well as depression.Participants were part of a birth cohort study in Pelotas, Brazil (5,249 participants). Happiness was measured by the Subjective Happiness Scale, a Likert-like scale with four questions generating a score from 1 to 7, with ≥ 6 indicating "happiness". Depression was measured using the Mini International Psychiatric Interview.About one third of mothers reported having smoked during pregnancy and 4.6% reported smoking 20 or more cigarettes a day. The prevalence of happiness was 32.2% (95% CI 30.8; 33.7), depression 6.8% (95% CI 6.1; 7.6), and simultaneous happiness and depression less than 1%. The prevalence of offspring happiness decreased as smoking in pregnancy increased, even after control for confounding variables, showing an OR = 0.79 [95% CI 0.55; 1.13]. The opposite happened to depression; the prevalence of offspring depression increased as smoking in pregnancy increased (<20 cigarettes/day OR = 1.38 [95% CI 1.03; 1.84] and ≥ 20 cigarettes/day OR = 2.11[95% CI 1.31; 3.40]. Smoking by the partner was associated with decreased offspring happiness after adjustment for confounders, but did no show association with offspring depression.Offspring were less likely to be happy and more likely to be depressed if their mother smoked during pregnancy, and less likely to be happy if their father smoked during mother's pregnancy. Although we can not affirm that this is a "causal pathway", public policies to reduce smoking in pregnancy could improve the health of the offspring in the short and long term

Adiposity during adolescence and carotid intima-media thickness in adulthood: Results from the 1993 Pelotas Birth Cohort

AbstractBackground and aimsAlthough several studies have examined the association between adiposity and cardiovascular risk markers, few have explored the issue prospectively in young populations. We sought to test whether higher levels of body mass index (BMI) and subscapular skinfold at different stages of adolescence were associated with carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in young adulthood.MethodsIn a prospective cohort, we assessed BMI and subscapular skinfold at 11, 15 and 18 years and measured cIMT at 18 years in 3264 individuals. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors and fat mass-mediating effects on cIMT were also assessed.ResultsBoth BMI and subscapular skinfolds were significantly associated with higher cIMT in a cummulative fashion: after controlling for confounders, males and females who persisted overweight/obese at all three assessments, had a mean higher cIMT (5.2 and 3.1 μm, respectively) compared to males and females with normal/healthy BMI at each evaluation (p < 0.001). Moreover, male and females that presented increased fatness in all assessments had a similar pattern of higher cIMT compared to normal/healthy fatness/skinfold at 18 years (mean cIMT 4.6 and 3.0 μm for males and females, respectively; p < 0.001). Associations between adiposity and cIMT were both direct and indirect. Indirect effects were chiefly mediated by fat mass and diastolic blood pressure.ConclusionsOur results suggest adiposity exerts direct and indirect effects during adolescence that result in higher cIMT in young adulthood