All-cause mortality in metabolically healthy individuals was not predicted by overweight and obesity

BACKGROUND Metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) and metabolically healthy overweight (MH-OW) have been suggested to be important and emerging phenotypes with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, whether MHO and MH-OW are associated with all-cause mortality remains inconsistent. METHODS The association of MHO and MH-OW and all-cause mortality was determined in a Chinese community-based prospective cohort study (the Kailuan study), including 93,272 adults at baseline. Data were analyzed from 2006 to 2017. Participants were categorized into 6 mutually exclusive groups, according to BMI and metabolic syndrome (MetS) status. The primary outcome was all-cause death, and accidental deaths were excluded. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 11.04 years (interquartile range, 10.74-11.22 years), 8977 deaths occurred. Compared with healthy participants with normal BMI (MH-NW), MH-OW participants had the lowest risk of all-cause mortality (multivariate-adjusted HR [aHR], 0.926; 95% CI, 0.861-0.997), whereas there was no increased or decreased risk for MHO (aHR, 1.009; 95% CI, 0.886-1.148). Stratified analyses and sensitivity analyses further validated that there was a nonsignificant association between MHO and all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS Overweight and obesity do not predict increased risk of all-cause mortality in metabolic healthy Chinese individuals

The impact of bilateral brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity difference on cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality

BackgroundThis study aims to investigate the association between an elevated bilateral pulse wave velocity difference (BPWVD) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality.MethodsThis study included a total of 38,356 participants. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between high BPWVD and the increased risk of CVDs and all-cause mortality by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals.ResultsA total of 1,213 cases of CVDs were identified over a mean duration of 6.19 years, including 886 cases of cerebral infarction (CI), 105 cases of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and 222 cases of myocardial infarction (MI), along with 1,182 cases of all-cause mortality. The median BPWVD was 42 cm/s (19–80 cm/s). After adjusting for all confounders and baseline brachial-ankle PWV (baPWV), our analysis revealed a significant correlation between a higher risk of CVDs, MI, and all-cause mortality with an increase in BPWVD per standard deviation. HRs (95% confidence interval) were found to be 1.06 (1.01–1.11), 1.11 (1.02–1.21), and 1.07 (1.04–1.10), respectively. Among the participants with higher baPWV on the left side, the HRs (95% confidence interval) were 1.08 (1.02–1.14) for CVDs, 1.27 (1.10–1.46) for incident ICH, 1.16 (1.00–1.24) for incident MI, and 1.10 (1.07–1.15) for all-cause mortality, for per standard deviation increase in BPWVD.ConclusionsOur findings reveal a significant correlation between elevated BPWVD and the risks of developing CVDs and all-cause mortality. This highlights the importance of thoroughly evaluating BPWVD as a means of detecting individuals at risk for CVDs and mortality

Cumulative exposure to remnant cholesterol and the risk of fragility fractures: a longitudinal cohort study

ObjectiveTo investigate the association between cumulative remnant cholesterol (cumRC) and the risk of new-onset fragility fractures.MethodsThis study included individuals who participated in the 2006, 2008, and 2010 Kailuan health examinations. Baseline characteristics were compared between groups according to cumRC quartiles. The incidence density was calculated, and the log-rank test was used to compare the cumulative incidence. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI), and restricted cubic spline was used to examine the possibly non-linear relation between cumRC and the risk of fragility fractures. Additional analyses were performed with stratification by age (≥ or <65 years).ResultsA total of 43,839 individuals were included in this study. During the median follow-up period of 10.97 years, a total of 489 fragility fractures occurred. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model 3 showed that the Q1 and Q4 groups versus the Q2 group were associated with a higher HR of fragility fracture (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.23–2.11; HR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.06–1.81), and restricted cubic spline regression analysis showed a non-linear relationship between cumRC level and the risk of fragility fractures (POverall association < 0.001, PNon-linear association = 0.001). The association was significant in the age group <65 years but not in the age group ≥65 years. The sensitivity analyses were consistent with the main results.ConclusionsBoth too high and too low cumRC levels were associated with a greater risk of fragility fractures, and this association was more significant in young and middle-aged people

The Association Between Diabetic Retinopathy and the Prevalence of Age-Related Macular Degeneration—The Kailuan Eye Study

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) and diabetic retinopathy (DR) and analyze whether DR is a risk factor for AMD. This population-based epidemiological study included 14,440 people from the Kailuan Eye Study in 2016, of whom 1,618 were patients with type 2 DM aged over 50 years, and 409 had DM with DR. We analyzed whether there were differences in the prevalence of AMD between DM with DR and DM without DR, and conducted a hierarchical statistical analysis according to different stages of DR. Using variable regression analysis, we explored whether DR constituted a risk factor for AMD. In the DM population, the prevalence of wet AMD in patients with DM with and without DR was 0. 3 and 0.2%, respectively, with no significant difference (P = 0.607). Meanwhile, the prevalence of dry AMD in patients with DM with and without DR was 20.8 and 16.0%, respectively, with a significant difference. In the subgroup analysis of dry AMD, the prevalence of early, middle, and late dry AMD in DM with DR was 14.4, 5.9, and 0.5%, respectively. In DM without DR, the prevalence of early, middle, and late dry AMD was 10.5, 4.8, and 0.7%, respectively (P = 0.031). In the subgroup analysis of DR staging, statistical analysis could not be performed because of the limited number of patients with PDR. In the variable regression analysis of risk factors for dry AMD, after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, and dyslipidemia, DR constituted the risk factor for dry AMD. In conclusion, DM did not constitute a risk factor for AMD, and the prevalence of wet AMD and dry AMD in patients with DM and DR was higher than that in patients with DM without DR (among which dry AMD was statistically significant). Multivariate regression analysis confirmed that DR is an independent risk factor for dry AMD. Reasonable control of DM and slowing down the occurrence and development of DR may effectively reduce the prevalence of AMD in patients with DM

Waist Circumference Might Be a Predictor of Primary Liver Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background: Waist circumference, as an indicator of central adiposity, has been identified as an important predictor of several specific cancers such as colorectal cancer and gastroesophageal cancer risk, however, a consensus regarding the association between waist circumference and primary liver cancer (PLC) risk has not been reached.Methods: A total of 104,825 males participating in the health checkup were included in the Kailuan male cohort study (2006–2015). Information on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, lifestyle, medical records, and anthropometric measures were collected. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of association between waist circumference and the risk of PLC in males.Results: During a median of 8.9 years of follow-up, 346 PLC cases were newly diagnosed in the cohort. The RCS model showed a U-shaped association between waist circumference and PLC risk (P-overall = 0.019, P-non-linear = 0.017). Overally, males with both high waist circumference (HRQ5vs.Q3 = 1.98, 95%CI: 1.39–2.82) and low waist circumference (HRQ1vs.Q3 = 1.52, 95%CI: 1.02–2.27) had an increased risk of PLC. Especially, the U-shaped association between waist circumference and PLC risk tended to be strengthened among subjects with hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) negativity (HRQ5vs.Q3 = 2.39, 95%CI: 1.43–3.98; HRQ1vs.Q3 = 2.27, 95%CI = 1.29–4.01).Conclusions: Waist circumference might be an independent predictor of PLC risk in males, especially for subjects with HBsAg negativity. Controlling waist circumference in an appropriate range might be an effective primary prevention to decrease PLC risk

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio : a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and nonHDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results: Since similar to 1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at similar to 0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as similar to 0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to similar to 26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.Peer reviewe

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit