Proposing an approach to calculate headway intervals to improve bus fleet scheduling using a data mining algorithm

Abstract The growth of AVL (Automatic Vehicle Location) systems leads to huge amount of data about different parts of bus fleet (buses, stations, passenger, etc.) which is very useful to improve bus fleet efficiency. In addition, by processing fleet and passengers' historical data it is possible to detect passenger's behavioral patterns in different parts of the day and to use it in order to improve fleet plans. In this research, a new approach is developed to use AVL data to investigate relationship between headway change and passenger downfall rate. For this purpose, a new method is developed that is called Intelligent Headway Selection (IHS) approach. The aim of this approach is finding similar days from passengers' behavior perspective in the dataset and by focusing on unusual patterns of each group, headway changes effects on passenger downfall rate is being studied. In this approach, in the first step, each day is classified into specific time periods (like half of hours) and the passengers' behavior pattern is detected for each day during the specified time periods. Then, in the K-Means algorithm, Euclidian distance measure is replaced with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm to enable the K-Means to compare time series. The modified K-Means algorithm is used to compare days in the dataset and categorize similar days in the same clusters. Then, headway -passenger per minute plot is created for each time period to detect unusual patterns. Then, a Headway Interval Detection Procedure (HIDP) is developed to use these unusual patterns to find suitable headway values for each time period. Afterwards, these plots merged and the final headways are calculated

Nutrition labels� strengths & weaknesses and strategies for improving their use in Iran: A qualitative study

Background This study aimed to explain the strengths and weaknesses of the Traffic light label (TLL) and nutrition facts label (NFL) and the strategies for improving their use in Iran, based on the perspectives of different stakeholders, including mothers, food quality control experts (FQC), nutritionists and food industry experts. Methods We conducted 10 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with 63 mothers, 10 semi-structured interviews with FQCs, 1 FGD with 6 nutritionists and 1 FGD with 8 food industry experts. To clarify some of the questions that arose from the interviews, the researcher interviewed three policy makers who had sufficient information about the TLL. The discussions and interviews were transcribed verbatim and MAXQDA10 software was used for coding. Results The most important findings of this study based on different stakeholders� perspectives were as follows: mothers believed that nutrition labels reduced the consumption of high-calorie products, although they found the TLL to be easier to understand than the NFL because of its red color. However, their weaknesses were their incompatibility with culture and the lack of trust in the information provided by manufacturers. FQCs pointed out the possibility of changing formulations and the appropriateness of the traffic light for patients, but like mothers, they believed that the labels did not suit the governing culture. Further weaknesses were, misleading the consumer, problems in the colorings reported by different laboratories, and different approaches adopted by regulatory experts. The simplicity of understanding TLL for the general public has been suggested by some nutritionists. Nevertheless, the multiplicity of colors of the TLL was the most important weakness presented by nutritionists and food industry experts and the failure to implement nutrition labels was another issue raised by experts. To improve the use of nutrition labels, notification via media especially television, community education and culture building were suggested by all stakeholders. Conclusions The findings of this study underscore the importance of implementing the policy of nutrition labeling in Iran. Mothers and nutritionists believed TLL to be more appropriate for the public to understand, however, FQCs and food industry experts believed that NFL was more suitable in guiding consumers toward healthy food choices. Education and information dissemination via media on interpretive TLL may affect consumer behavior toward food purchases. © 2020 Seyedhamzeh et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Reliability and validity of the Persian version of Food Craving Questionnaire-Trait-Reduced (FCQ-T-r) in overweight and obese women

Introduction: Food Craving Questionnaire (FCQ) is a popular tool in assessing food craving which consisted of a trait (FCQ-T) and state (FCQ-S). The aim of the current study was to provide reliability and validity of the Persian version of FCQ-Trait-reduced (FCQ-T-r 15-items) in overweight and obese women. Material and methods: The subjects were 168 overweight and obese women who were consented to participate. The subjects completed the FCQ-T-r and subsequently, anthropometric, body composition and psychometric assessments performed to assess the inter-correlations and concurrent validity. The confirmatory factor analysis was done to derive the potential factors and internal consistency of the questionnaire was assessed. Two weeks later, FCQ-T-r repeated for 126 subjects to assess test-retest reliability. Results: The confirmatory factor analysis of by varimax rotation, show that three principal components were loaded on expected factors. The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.90. (0.91, 0.78, and 0.71, for factors). The test–retest analysis shows an acceptable level of reliability ( P=0.001) and Pearson correlation coefficient  of 0.92 between the two administrations. In split-half reliability analysis the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of the part 1 was 0.80 and for the part 2 was 0.86. The correlation coefficient between part 1 and part 2 was 0.81. Conclusion: This preliminary study provides evidences in favor of reliability and validity of the Persian version of the FCQ-T-r. In general, the results showed a high level of internal consistency for FCQ-T-r, and none of the 15 items had to be deleted to improve α

Determination of effective factors on geographic distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer in Tehran using geographically weighted Poisson regression model

Background: This study aimed to determine effective factors on geographic distribution of the Incidence of Colorectal Cancer (CRC) in Tehran, Iran using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression Model. Methods: This ecological study was carried out at neighborhood level of Tehran in 2017-2018. Data for CRC incidence was extracted from the population-based cancer registry data of Iran. The socioeconomic variables, risk factors and health costs were extracted from the Urban HEART Study in Tehran. Geographically weighted Poisson regression model was used for determination of the association between these variables with CRC incidence. GWR 4, Stata 14 and ArcGIS 10.3 software systems were used for statistical analysis. Results: The total number of incident CRC cases were 2815 in Tehran from 2008 to 2011, of whom, 2491 cases were successfully geocoded to the neighborhood. The median IRR for local variables were: unemployed people over 15 year old (median IRR: 1.17), women aged 17 years or older with university education (median IRR: 1.17), women head of household (median IRR: 1.06), people without insurance coverage (median IRR: 1.10), households without daily consumption of milk (median IRR: 0.85), smoking households (median IRR: 1.07), household's health expenditure (median IRR: 1.39), disease diagnosis costs (median IRR: 1.03), medicines costs of households (median IRR: 1.05), cost of the hospital (median IRR: 1.09), cost of medical visits (median IRR: 1.27). Conclusion: The spatial variability was observed for most socioeconomic variables, risk factors and health costs that had effects on CRC incidence in Tehran. Spatial variability is necessary when interpreting the results and utterly helpful for implementation of prevention programs. © Iran University of Medical Sciences

Designing a new physical activity calorie equivalent food label and comparing its effect on caloric choices to that of the traffic light label among mothers: a mixed-method study

ObjectiveWe designed a new type of ‘physical activity calorie equivalent’ (PACE) food label in Iran to compare its effect with that of the traffic light food label (TLL) on caloric choices.DesignMixed-method study.ParticipantsMothers of school children between the ages of 6–12 years.SettingIn the qualitative phase, 10 focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with various groups of mothers, and two FGDs were conducted with food science and nutrition experts to design a new PACE label. In the quantitative phase, 496 mothers were randomly assigned to five groups: (1) no nutrition label, (2) current TLL, (3) current TLL + educational brochure, (4) PACE label, and (5) PACE label + brochure. Samples of dairy products, beverages, cakes, and biscuits were presented. ANOVA and multiple linear regressions were applied to examine the association between label types and calories of the selected products as our main outcome.ResultsThe mothers’ perspectives were classified into two sub-themes, the PACE label’s facilitators and barriers. The new PACE label’s characteristics were divided into two subcategories: (a) appearance, and (b) nutritional information, including 14 codes. In the quantitative section, mean calories of the selected foods were lowest in the TLL + brochure group (831.77 kcal; 95% CI: 794.23–869.32), and highest in the PACE label group (971.61; 95% CI: 926.37–1016.84).ConclusionThe new PACE label was a combination of PACE, TLL, and warning labels. It did not significantly affect lower caloric choice, however, the TLL + brochure option was effective in choosing foods with fewer calories.Clinical trial registration: The study was registered in the Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials 23 (IRCT20181002041201N1)

Sustainable supply chain management towards disruption and organizational ambidexterity:A data driven analysis

Balancing sustainability and disruption of supply chains requires organizational ambidexterity. Sustainable supply chains prioritize efficiency and economies of scale and may not have sufficient redundancy to withstand disruptive events. There is a developing body of literature that attempts to reconcile these two aspects. This study gives a data-driven literature review of sustainable supply chain management trends toward ambidexterity and disruption. The critical review reveals temporal trends and geographic distribution of literature. A hybrid of data-driven analysis approach based on content and bibliometric analyses, fuzzy Delphi method, entropy weight method, and fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory is used on 273 keywords and 22 indicators obtained based on the experts’ evaluation. The most important indicators are identified as supply chain agility, supply chain coordination, supply chain finance, supply chain flexibility, supply chain resilience, and sustainability. The regions show different tendencies compared with others. Asia and Oceania, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa are the regions needs improvement, while Europe and North America show distinct apprehensions on supply chain network design. The main contribution of this review is the identification of the knowledge frontier, which then leads to a discussion of prospects for future studies and practical industry implementation

Prevalence and Correlates of Psychiatric Disorders in a National Survey of Iranian Children and Adolescents

Objective: Considering the impact of rapid sociocultural, political, and economical changes on societies and families, population-based surveys of mental disorders in different communities are needed to describe the magnitude of mental health problems and their disabling effects at the individual, familial, and societal levels. Method: A population-based cross sectional survey (IRCAP project) of 30 532 children and adolescents between 6 and 18 years was conducted in all provinces of Iran using a multistage cluster sampling method. Data were collected by 250 clinical psychologists trained to use the validated Persian version of the semi-structured diagnostic interview Kiddie-Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia-PL (K-SADS-PL). Results: In this national epidemiological survey, 6209 out of 30 532 (22.31%) were diagnosed with at least one psychiatric disorder. The anxiety disorders (14.13%) and behavioral disorders (8.3%) had the highest prevalence, while eating disorders (0.13%) and psychotic symptoms (0.26%) had the lowest. The prevalence of psychiatric disorders was significantly lower in girls (OR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.80-0.90), in those living in the rural area (OR = 0.80; 95% CI: 0.73-0.87), in those aged 15-18 years (OR = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.86-0.99), as well as that was significantly higher in those who had a parent suffering from mental disorders (OR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.63-2.36 for mother and OR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.07-1.66 for father) or physical illness (OR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.17-1.35 for mother and OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.10-1.28 for father). Conclusion: About one fifth of Iranian children and adolescents suffer from at least one psychiatric disorder. Therefore, we should give a greater priority to promoting mental health and public health, provide more accessible services and trainings, and reduce barriers to accessing existing services

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations