Modelling and Predicting Learners Numeracy Test Results using Some Regression and Machine Learning Classifiers

The prediction of early childhood numeracy skills development is often studied by determining the learner’s performance in a numeracy test. It is an important study area since numeracy impacts on the learner’s mathematical and statistical abilities later in life. Despite having pros and cons over each other, classification algorithms are often applied in the prediction of early childhood numeracy skills development without justifying the choice of a certain algorithm over others. In this paper, the bi-directional stepwise logistic regression model (SLRM), hierarchical logistic regression model (HLRM), classification and regression tree (CART) and Naïve Bayes (NB) were compared in terms of their ability to predict learners’ numeracy test performance. The algorithms were compared using the true positive rate, true negative rate, specificity, sensitivity, classification error, classification accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The results showed that the HLRM which has been applied by several previous studies on the prediction of numeracy test competence is the best classifier followed by SLRM, CART then NB. The study also confirmed some important predictors of the learner’s performance in a numeracy test some of which were also identified by some previous studies on early childhood numeracy development. Some gaps and recommendations for future research pertaining to the classification algorithms as well as implications for practice were also highlighted. We have made the HLRM scoring algorithm generated from SPSS available as a supplementary material and can be used to classify a set of new learners to either the pass or fail group

The Effect of Sample Size on the Efficiency of Count Data Models: Application to Marriage Data

Abstract: Sample size requirements are common in many multivariate analysis techniques as one of the measures taken to ensure the robustness of such techniques, such requirements have not been of interest in the area of count data models. As such, this study investigated the effect of sample size on the efficiency of six commonly used count data models namely: Poisson regression model (PRM), Negative binomial regression model (NBRM), Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), Zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), Poisson Hurdle model (PHM) and Negative binomial hurdle model (NBHM). The data used in this study were sourced from Data First and were collected by Statistics South Africa through the Marriage and Divorce database. PRM, NBRM, ZIP, ZINB, PHM and NBHM were applied to ten randomly selected samples ranging from 4392 to 43916 and differing by 10% in size. The six models were compared using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Vuong’s test for over-dispersion, McFadden RSQ, Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).The results revealed that generally, the Negative Binomial-based models outperformed Poisson-based models. However, the results did not reveal the effect of sample size variations on the efficiency of the models since there was no consistency in the change in AIC, BIC, Vuong’s test for over-dispersion, McFadden RSQ, MSE and MAD as the sample size increased

Trauma research in low- and middle-income countries is urgently needed to strengthen the chain of survival

Trauma is a major - and increasing - cause of death, especially in low- and middle income countries. In all countries rural areas are especially hard hit, and the distribution of physicians is skewed towards cities. To reduce avoidable deaths from injury all links in the chain of survival after trauma needs strengthening. Prioritizing in each country should be done by local researchers, but little research on injuries emerges from low- and middle income countries. Researchers in these countries need support and collaboration from their peers in industrialized countries. This partnership will be of mutual benefice

Barriers to utilisation of antenatal care services in Bloemfontein, sub-district of Mangaung Metro, Free State, South Africa

Background: Maternal and child mortality remain a global health problem, regardless of preventative measures put in place. Antenatal care is crucial to decrease maternal and child morbidity and mortality. However, in Bloemfontein, the sub-district of Mangaung Metro in the Free State, it has been identified that women utilise this kind of service sub-optimally. The study aimed to explore and describe barriers to the utilisation of antenatal care by pregnant women in the Bloemfontein sub-district of Mangaung Metro. Methodology: This study was qualitative and used an explorative, descriptive design. Qualitative data was collected by using focus group discussions and key informants’ interviews. Three focus group discussions with twenty-five pregnant and lactating mothers, aged between 18 and 49 years, were conducted. Participants took part in one focus group discussion at each healthcare facility. Four key informant interviews were conducted with four facility managers and one professional midwife who conducted ANC at the clinic at the time of the study in the three healthcare facilities. A thematic analysis process was used to analyse the collected qualitative data under each identified barrier. The STATA version 15 was used in the analysis of the demographic characteristics of the participants. Results: Most of the participants indicated that they are aware of the importance of attending ANC appointments however, they have voiced that the delayed waiting times and staff attitudes contribute to how they feel about visiting a clinic early. Some of the participants mentioned that they have cultural barriers as they still believe that a traditional pregnant woman should not reveal her pregnancy in the early days but must rather wait until her stomach has grown significantly for her to visit the clinic. Two participants indicated that they had unplanned pregnancies and wanted to do an abortion, but their religious beliefs prevented them to choose to terminate their pregnancies. Economically, not all participants complained about their financial situation though the majority were unemployed and single. Participants from the Bloemspruit facility complained of transport as they stay far from the clinic and they are sometimes forced to walk alone which makes it difficult to attend all their booked sessions with their midwives. The results of the study revealed that there are several factors contributing to late antenatal care attendance namely provider and personal factors contributing to late antenatal care attendance in the Bloemfontein sub-district of Mangaung Metro. Personal factors that were found to be contributing to late antenatal care booking were lack of transport, especially for Bloemspruit participants, unwanted pregnancy, lack of financial support, lack of partner support, cultural and religious beliefs, and lack of knowledge. Provider factors that were found to be contributing to late booking were lack of resources like tools of the trade, long waiting times, poor infrastructure, human resources, and midwives’ attitudes. Recommendations. To deploy qualified midwives to conduct antenatal care clinics, to extend the service over the weekends as participants mentioned that they struggle to get time off from work during the week. Health promotion and community awareness campaigns on the importance of antenatal care may increase the utilisation of antenatal care services.Thesis (MPA) -- Faculty of Health Sciences, 202

Barriers to utilisation of antenatal care services in Bloemfontein, sub-district of Mangaung Metro, Free State, South Africa

Background: Maternal and child mortality remain a global health problem, regardless of preventative measures put in place. Antenatal care is crucial to decrease maternal and child morbidity and mortality. However, in Bloemfontein, the sub-district of Mangaung Metro in the Free State, it has been identified that women utilise this kind of service sub-optimally. The study aimed to explore and describe barriers to the utilisation of antenatal care by pregnant women in the Bloemfontein sub-district of Mangaung Metro. Methodology: This study was qualitative and used an explorative, descriptive design. Qualitative data was collected by using focus group discussions and key informants’ interviews. Three focus group discussions with twenty-five pregnant and lactating mothers, aged between 18 and 49 years, were conducted. Participants took part in one focus group discussion at each healthcare facility. Four key informant interviews were conducted with four facility managers and one professional midwife who conducted ANC at the clinic at the time of the study in the three healthcare facilities. A thematic analysis process was used to analyse the collected qualitative data under each identified barrier. The STATA version 15 was used in the analysis of the demographic characteristics of the participants. Results: Most of the participants indicated that they are aware of the importance of attending ANC appointments however, they have voiced that the delayed waiting times and staff attitudes contribute to how they feel about visiting a clinic early. Some of the participants mentioned that they have cultural barriers as they still believe that a traditional pregnant woman should not reveal her pregnancy in the early days but must rather wait until her stomach has grown significantly for her to visit the clinic. Two participants indicated that they had unplanned pregnancies and wanted to do an abortion, but their religious beliefs prevented them to choose to terminate their pregnancies. Economically, not all participants complained about their financial situation though the majority were unemployed and single. Participants from the Bloemspruit facility complained of transport as they stay far from the clinic and they are sometimes forced to walk alone which makes it difficult to attend all their booked sessions with their midwives. The results of the study revealed that there are several factors contributing to late antenatal care attendance namely provider and personal factors contributing to late antenatal care attendance in the Bloemfontein sub-district of Mangaung Metro. Personal factors that were found to be contributing to late antenatal care booking were lack of transport, especially for Bloemspruit participants, unwanted pregnancy, lack of financial support, lack of partner support, cultural and religious beliefs, and lack of knowledge. Provider factors that were found to be contributing to late booking were lack of resources like tools of the trade, long waiting times, poor infrastructure, human resources, and midwives’ attitudes. Recommendations. To deploy qualified midwives to conduct antenatal care clinics, to extend the service over the weekends as participants mentioned that they struggle to get time off from work during the week. Health promotion and community awareness campaigns on the importance of antenatal care may increase the utilisation of antenatal care services.Thesis (MPA) -- Faculty of Health Sciences, 202

自然災害多発地域における事業継続マネジメント(BCM)の最適化：自動車部品企業の事例

要約のみTohoku University長平彰夫課