MANAGEMENT OF WATER EXTREMES: A SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE ON GUIDELINES FOR POLICY AND STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT

Utilising insights gained from a literature study about the social, economic and political impacts of irrigation droughts, research done on the impacts and management of floods and water restrictions in South Africa as well as analysing the disaster management policy process in South Africa since 1994, this presentation endeavours to present some guidelines for policy and strategy development with regard to the effective management of floods and droughts. In compiling this contribution extensive use has been made from a paper presented at a workshop of the ICID Working Group on Irrigation under Drought and Water Scarcity, Tehran, by G.R. Backeberg and M.F. Viljoen.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

South African Agricultural Policy 1994 to 2004: Some reflections

Time constraints limits this paper to giving a brief overview of a selection of only the most important events on the policy front. The aim is to set the stage for the conference by giving a synoptic overview of South African agricultural policy between 1994 and 2004. To put the policy development in historical and developmental perspective, relevant pre-1994 realities will be mentioned first. After outlining the policy development between 1994 and 2004, the presentation concludes with some 2004 realities and a perspective on the relevance of agricultural economics as a discipline.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Bridging the economic divide in South African agriculture by improving access to natural resources

The paper focuses on improvement in access to the natural resources land and water to bridge the economic divide in South African agriculture. The relevance of the approach to bridging the economic divide, progress made since 1994 in land and water reform and problems experienced and strategies to overcome them are discussed. Challenges imposed by climate change and biodiversity on the effective utilization of land and water resources are also highlighted. Given the broadness of the subject, an overview of some important issues can only be attempted within the allocated time. The presentation starts with background information to place the discussion in context within the national framework and to define certain concepts. Conceptual issues regarding access to natural resources are then presented to serve as an analytical framework for the subsequent discussions on access to land and water, climate change and biodiversity. The presentation concludes by integrating the foregoing discussions and highlighting some challenges for agricultural economists.Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

ERTS-1 imagery as an aid to the understanding of the regional setting of base metal deposits in the North West Cape Province, South Africa

A number of base metal finds have recently focussed attention on the North Western Cape Province of South Africa as an area of great potential mineral wealth. From the point of view of competitive mineral exploration it was essential that an insight into the regional geological controls of the base metal mineralization of the area be obtained as rapidly as possible. Conventional methods of producing a suitable regional geological map were considered to be too time-consuming and ERTS-1 imagery was consequently examined. This imagery has made a significant contribution in the compilation of a suitable map on which to base further mineral exploration programmes. The time involved in the compilation of maps of this nature was found to be only a fraction of the time necessary for the production of similar maps using other methods. ERTS imagery is therefore considered to be valuable in producing accurate regional maps in areas where little or no geological data are available, or in areas of poor access. Furthermore, these images have great potential for rapidly defining the regional extent of metallogenic provinces

Towards Quantifying The Economic Effects Of Poor And Fluctuating Water Quality On Irrigation Agriculture: A Case Study Of The Lower Vaal And Riet Rivers

Irrigation farmers in the lower reaches of the Vaal and Riet Rivers are experiencing substantial yield reductions in certain crops and more profitable crops have been withdrawn from production, hypothesised, as a result of generally poor but especially fluctuating water quality. In this paper secondary data is used in a linear programming model to test this hypothesis by calculating the potential loss in farm level optimal returns. The model is static with a time frame of two production seasons. Linear crop-water quality production functions (Ayers & Westcot, 1983; adapted from Maas & Hoffmann, 1977) are used to calculate net returns for the eight most common crops grown. Results show optimal enterprise composition under various water quality situations. Leaching is justified financially and there is a strong motivation for a change in the current water pricing system. SALMOD (Salinity and Leaching Model for Optimal irrigation Development) is the Excel Solver model used to derive the preliminary results, but is currently being developed further in GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System). Useful results have already been obtained on which this paper is based. The ultimate aim for SALMOD is a mathematical model using dynamic optimisation, simulation and risk modelling techniques to aid in whole farm and system level management decisions to ensure sustainable irrigation agriculture under stochastic river water quality conditions.Crop Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

SALMOD, a Salinity Management Tool for Irrigated Agriculture

This paper presents an irrigation farm management tool, SALMOD (Salinity And Leaching Model for Optimal irrigation Development), that calculates the profit maximizing crop enterprise composition and irrigation management options for farm specific soil type, drainage status and irrigation system composition subject to various regional control measures and expected irrigation water salinities. After stating the water quality problem, and particularly salinisation in Southern Africa, the input data requirements and the results of SALMOD and their usefulness at farm level, are discussed. The impact of various possible regional or policy regulations are then discussed. SALMOD was developed for irrigators in the lower Vaal and Riet Rivers in South Africa. These farmers have been experiencing rapidly fluctuating salinity levels in their irrigation water, resulting in soil salinisation, yield loss and subsequent financial instability. SALMOD calculates the profit maximizing crop choice and distribution over the farm, matching the crop choice with soil type, drainage status and irrigation system, indicating the optimal leaching vs. yield reduction seasonal management options as well as calculate long term management options such as underground drainage installation, a change in irrigation system or the construction of on farm storage dams. Leaching is necessary to maintain an acceptable salt balance in the root-zone of irrigated crops. This however contributes to point and non-point source water pollution externalities if not managed correctly. Results show valuable policy information regarding the interactions between artificial drainage subsidisation, return flow restrictions and on-farm storage.Irrigation, water quality, return flows, salinisation, leaching, non-point source pollution, on-farm storage, SALMOD, linear programming, GAMS, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

Tetra­kis(1,3-diphenyl­propane-1,3-dionato)hafnium(IV)

In the title compound, [Hf(C15H11O2)4], the HfIV atom is coordinated by four 1,3-diphenyl­propane-1,3-dionato ligands with an average Hf—O distance of 2.17 (3) Å and O—Hf—O bite angles varying from 74.5 (1) to 75.02 (9)°. The coordination polyhedron shows a slightly distorted Archimedean square-anti­prismatic geometry. The crystal packing is stabilized by weak C—H⋯O inter­actions

Risk of postoperative pulmonary complications in adult surgical patients with metabolic syndrome: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is defined as an accumulation of risk factors that include chronic hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin resistance and obesity and leads to an increased risk for diabetes, cardiovascular disease and stroke. MetS is widespread and estimated to affect up to a quarter of the global population. Patients with MetS who undergo surgery are associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications when compared with patients with a non-MetS profile. An emerging body of literature points to MetS being associated with a greater risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPC) in the surgical patient. PPC are associated with increased postoperative morbidity and mortality, Intensive care unit (ICU) admission, length of stay (ICU and hospital), health care costs, resource usage, unplanned re-intubation and prolonged ventilatory time. Methods/design: We will search for relevant studies in the following electronic bibliographic databases: EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Scopus as well as scan the reference lists of included studies for potential additional literature. Two authors will independently screen titles and abstracts to identify potentially relevant studies for inclusion based on predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Cochrane Collaboration Review Manager (Review Manager 5) statistical software will be used to conduct this systematic review and meta-analysis and generate forest plots to demonstrate comparison of findings across studies included for meta analysis. Subgroup and sensitivity analysis will be performed to assess the heterogeneity of included studies. A descriptive synthesis of the statistical data will be provided to summarise the results and findings of the systematic review and meta-analysis. Discussion: This review will be the first to report and summarise the risk for and incidence of PPC in adult patients with MetS undergoing surgery across a range of surgical specialities. The results have the potential to inform the development of evidenced-based interventions to improve the management of PPC in the surgical patient with MetS. Findings from this systematic review and meta-analysis will inform a subsequent Delphi study on priorities and responses to PPC in patients with MetS. We will also disseminate our results through publication in scientific peerreviewed journals, conference presentations and promotion throughout our network of surgical safety champions in clinical settings

CREATING AGRIBUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES FOR SMALL SCALE FARMERS IN THABA NCHU BY INTRODUCING WATER HARVESTING TECHNIQUES: A PROFITABILITY AND RISK ANALYSIS

Thaba Nchu is a semi-arid area with low and erratic annual rainfall not exceeding 600mm. Various dryland crops are produced with relatively low yields and high risk of failure. Lack of appropriate technology and other constraints has led to most of the arable land being unused thus restricting agribusiness opportunities in an area where unemployment and food insecurity are thriving. Rainwater harvesting has a huge potential to increase crop yields in Thaba Nchu and reduce the risk of losses, and thus improve food security and enhance sustainability. Different in-field rainwater harvesting (IRWH) techniques have been tested and applied at Glen and Thaba Nchu. This paper gives comparative results for three crops produced with regard to relative profitability and risk of failure. This is done by integrating crop enterprise budgets with crop yield simulations models to calculate per hectare profits over an 81-year period and developing and analyzing cumulative probability functions.Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

Burden of fetal alcohol syndrome in a rural West Coast area of South Africa

Background. Fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) is common in parts of South Africa; rural residence is a frequently cited risk factor. We conducted a FAS school prevalence survey of an isolated rural community in a West Coast village of Western Cape Province, so obtaining the first directly measured rate, focusing specifically on a South African rural area, of FAS and partial FAS (PFAS). Methods. The study area (Aurora village), a community of about 2 500 people in a grain-producing region, has one primary school. All learners were eligible for study inclusion. Initial anthropometry screening was followed by a diagnostic stage entailing examination by a dysmorphologist for features of FAS, neurodevelopmental assessment, and an interview assessing maternal alcohol consumption. Results. Of 160 learners screened, 78 (49%) were screen-positive, of whom 63 (81%) were clinically assessed for FAS. The overall FAS/PFAS rate among the screened learners was 17.5% (95% confidence interval 12.0 - 24.2%), with 16 (10.0%) children having FAS and 12 (7.5%) PFAS. High rates of stunting, underweight and microcephaly were noted in all learners, especially those with FAS or PFAS. Five (18%) mothers of affected children were deceased by the time of assessment. Conclusion. We describe very high rates of FAS/PFAS in an isolated rural part of the Western Cape that is not located in a viticultural region. Our study suggests that the prevalence of FA S may be very high in isolated communities, or in particular hot-spots. It adds to the growing evidence that FAS/PFAS is a significant, and underestimated, health problem in South Africa. Expanded screening and surveillance programmes, and preventive interventions, are urgently needed