Quantifying the behavior of stock correlations under market stress

Understanding correlations in complex systems is crucial in the face of turbulence, such as the ongoing financial crisis. However, in complex systems, such as financial systems, correlations are not constant but instead vary in time. Here we address the question of quantifying state-dependent correlations in stock markets. Reliable estimates of correlations are absolutely necessary to protect a portfolio. We analyze 72 years of daily closing prices of the 30 stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). We find the striking result that the average correlation among these stocks scales linearly with market stress reflected by normalized DJIA index returns on various time scales. Consequently, the diversification effect which should protect a portfolio melts away in times of market losses, just when it would most urgently be needed. Our empirical analysis is consistent with the interesting possibility that one could anticipate diversification breakdowns, guiding the design of protected portfolios

Asset pricing with downside liquidity risks

© 2016 INFORMS. We develop a parsimonious liquidity-adjusted downside capital asset pricing model to investigate whether phenomena such as downward liquidity spirals and flights to liquidity impact expected asset returns.We find strong empirical support for the model. Downside liquidity risk (sensitivity of stock liquidity to negative market returns) has an economically meaningful return premium that is 10 times larger than its symmetric analogue. The expected liquidity level and downside market risk are also associated with meaningful return premiums. Downside liquidity risk and its associated premium are higher during periods of low marketwide liquidity and for stocks that are relatively small, illiquid, volatile, and have high book-to-market ratios. These results are consistent with investors requiring compensation for holding assets susceptible to adverse liquidity phenomena. Our findings suggest that mitigation of downside liquidity risk can lower firms' cost of capital

A national survey on the patterns of treatment of inflammatory bowel disease in Canada

BACKGROUND: There is a general lack of information on the care of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in a broad, geographically diverse, non-clinic population. The purposes of this study were (1) to compare a sample drawn from the membership of a national Crohn's and Colitis Foundation to published clinic-based and population-based IBD samples, (2) to describe current patterns of health care use, and (3) to determine if unexpected variations exist in how and by whom IBD is treated. METHODS: Mailed survey of 4453 members of the Crohn's and Colitis Foundation of Canada. The questionnaire, in members stated language of preference, included items on demographic and disease characteristics, general health behaviors and current and past IBD treatment. Each member received an initial and one reminder mailing. RESULTS: Questionnaires were returned by 1787, 913, and 128 people with Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis and indeterminate colitis, respectively. At least one operation had been performed on 1159 Crohn's disease patients, with risk increasing with duration of disease. Regional variation in surgical rates in ulcerative colitis patients was identified. 6-Mercaptopurine/Azathioprine was used by 24% of patients with Crohn's disease and 12% of patients with ulcerative colitis (95% CI for the difference: 8.9% – 15%). In patients with Crohn's disease, use was not associated with gender, income or region of residence but was associated with age and markers of disease activity. Infliximab was used by 112 respondents (4%), the majority of whom had Crohn's disease. Variations in infliximab use based on region of residence and income were not seen. Sixty-eight percent of respondents indicated that they depended most on a gastroenterologist for their IBD care. There was significant regional variation in this. However, satisfaction with primary physician did not depend on physician type (for example, gastroenterologist versus general practitioner). CONCLUSION: This study achieved the goal of obtaining a large, geographically diverse sample that is more representative of the general IBD population than a clinic sample would have been. We could find no evidence of significant regional variation in medical treatments due to gender, region of residence or income level. Differences were noted between different age groups, which deserves further attention

S021-04 OA. A large-scale analysis of immunoglobulin sequences derived from plasmablasts/plasma cells in acute HIV-1 infection subjects

Background In acute HIV-1 infection (AHI) there are infectioninduced polyclonal shifts in blood and bone marrow Bcell subsets from naïve to memory cells and plasmablasts/ plasma cells (PCs) coupled with decreased numbers of naive B cells. To study the initial antibody response to HIV, we have used recombinant technology to create a database of PC antibody sequences derived from 3 early stage AHI subjects

Display of probability densities for data from a continuous distribution

Based on cumulative distribution functions, Fourier series expansion and Kolmogorov tests, we present a simple method to display probability densities for data drawn from a continuous distribution. It is often more efficient than using histograms.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, presented at Computer Simulation Studies XXIV, Athens, GA, 201

A Cross-Sectional Study of HPV Vaccine Acceptability in Gaborone, Botswana

Background Cervical cancer is the most common cancer among women in Botswana and elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa. We sought to examine whether HPV vaccine is acceptable among parents in Botswana, which recently licensed the vaccine to prevent cervical cancer. Methods and Findings We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 2009, around the time the vaccine was first licensed, with adults recruited in general medicine and HIV clinics in Gaborone, the capital of Botswana. Although only 9% (32/376) of respondents had heard of HPV vaccine prior to the survey, 88% (329/376) said they definitely will have their adolescent daughters receive HPV vaccine. Most respondents would get the vaccine for their daughters at a public or community clinic (42%) or a gynecology or obstetrician\u27s office (39%), and 74% would get it for a daughter if it were available at her school. Respondents were more likely to say that they definitely will get HPV vaccine for their daughters if they had less education (OR = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.07–0.58) or lived more than 30 kilometers from the capital, Gaborone (OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.06–4.93). Other correlates of acceptability were expecting to be involved in the decision to get HPV vaccine, thinking the vaccine would be hard to obtain, and perceiving greater severity of HPV-related diseases. Conclusions HPV vaccination of adolescent girls would be highly acceptable if the vaccine became widely available to the daughters of healthcare seeking parents in Gaborone, Botswana. Potential HPV vaccination campaigns should provide more information about HPV and the vaccine as well as work to minimize barriers

Multiple publications: The main reason for the retraction of papers in computer science

This paper intends to review the reasons for the retraction over the last decade. The paper particularly aims at reviewing these reasons with reference to computer science field to assist authors in comprehending the style of writing. To do that, a total of thirty-six retracted papers found on the Web of Science within Jan 2007 through July 2017 are explored. Given the retraction notices which are based on ten common reasons, this paper classifies the two main categories, namely random and nonrandom retraction. Retraction due to the duplication of publications scored the highest proportion of all other reasons reviewed

X-ray Absorption and Reflection in Active Galactic Nuclei

X-ray spectroscopy offers an opportunity to study the complex mixture of emitting and absorbing components in the circumnuclear regions of active galactic nuclei, and to learn about the accretion process that fuels AGN and the feedback of material to their host galaxies. We describe the spectral signatures that may be studied and review the X-ray spectra and spectral variability of active galaxies, concentrating on progress from recent Chandra, XMM-Newton and Suzaku data for local type 1 AGN. We describe the evidence for absorption covering a wide range of column densities, ionization and dynamics, and discuss the growing evidence for partial-covering absorption from data at energies > 10 keV. Such absorption can also explain the observed X-ray spectral curvature and variability in AGN at lower energies and is likely an important factor in shaping the observed properties of this class of source. Consideration of self-consistent models for local AGN indicates that X-ray spectra likely comprise a combination of absorption and reflection effects from material originating within a few light days of the black hole as well as on larger scales. It is likely that AGN X-ray spectra may be strongly affected by the presence of disk-wind outflows that are expected in systems with high accretion rates, and we describe models that attempt to predict the effects of radiative transfer through such winds, and discuss the prospects for new data to test and address these ideas.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. 58 pages, 9 figures. V2 has fixed an error in footnote

Lessons from the removal of lead from gasoline for controlling other environmental pollutants: A case study from New Zealand

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It took over two decades to achieve the removal of leaded gasoline in this country. This was despite international evidence and original research conducted in New Zealand on the harm to child cognitive function and behaviour from lead exposure.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To identify lessons from the New Zealand experience of removing leaded gasoline that are potentially relevant to the control of other environmental pollutants.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>From the available documentation, we suggest a number of reasons for the slow policy response to the leaded gasoline hazard. These include: (1) industry power in the form of successful lobbying by the lead additive supplier, Associated Octel; (2) the absence of the precautionary principle as part of risk management policy; and (3) weak policymaking machinery that included: (a) the poor use of health research evidence (from both NZ and internationally), as well as limited use of expertise in academic and non-governmental organisations; (b) lack of personnel competent in addressing technically complex issues; and (c) diffusion of responsibility among government agencies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There is a need for a stronger precautionary approach by policymakers when considering environmental pollutants. Politicians, officials and health workers need to strengthen policymaking processes and effectively counter the industry tactics used to delay regulatory responses.</p

Human papillomavirus and vaccination: knowledge, attitudes, and behavioural intention in adolescents and young women in Italy

This study assesses knowledge, attitudes, and behavioural intention towards human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and vaccination in a random sample of 1348 adolescents and young women aged 14–24 years in Italy. A self-administered anonymous questionnaire covered demographics; knowledge about HPV infection, cervical cancer, and HPV vaccine; the perceived risk for contracting HPV infection and/or for developing cervical cancer, the perceived benefits of a vaccination to prevent cervical cancer, and willingness to receive an HPV vaccine. Only 23.3% have heard that HPV is an infection of the genital mucosa and about cervical cancer. Those older, with at least one parent who is a health care professional, with personal, familiar, or friendly history of cervical cancer, and having underwent a health checkup in the last year with information about HPV vaccination were significantly more knowledgeable. Risk perception scores (range: 1–10) of contracting HPV infection and of developing cervical cancer were 5.8 and 6.5. Older age, not having a parent who is a health care professional, having had a personal, familiar, or friendly history of cervical cancer, and need of additional information were predictors of the perceived susceptibility of developing cervical cancer. The vast majority professed intent to receive an HPV vaccine and the significant predictors were having at least one parent who is a health care professional, a high perceived risk of contracting HPV infection and of developing cervical cancer, and a high belief towards the utility of a vaccination for preventing cervical cancer. Knowledge about HPV infection and cervical cancer should be improved with more attention to the benefit of HPV vaccination