Baysian Flexible Mixture Distribution Modelling of Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation with Heterogeneity

This paper considers the performance of a model of mixture normal distributions for dichotomous choice contingent valuation data, which allows the researcher to consider unobserved heterogeneity across the sample. The model is flexible and approaches a semi-parametric model, since any empirical distribution can be represented by augmenting the number of mixture distributions. Bayesian inference allows for simple estimation of the model and is particularly appropriate for conducting inference with finite data sets. The proposed model is compared with other semi-parametric and parametric approaches using Monte Carlo simulation, under alternative assumptions regarding heteroscedasticity and heterogeneity in sample observations. It is found that the mixture normal model reduces bias and improves performance with respect to an alternative semi-parametric model, particularly when the sample is characterized by heterogeneous preferences.Bayesian Econometrics; Mixture of Normals; Choice Experiments

Climate Change-induced Effects on Beach Degradation and Tourist Behaviour: A review of previous studies with potential in an island tourism context

This article conducts a qualitative meta-analysis of papers addressing the topic of climate change impacts on beach loss and degradation, and its relation to tourist behaviour (destination choice, willingness to re-visit, expenditure and willingness to pay). The main aim is to identify values that can be used in future research works in the context of island tourism. We found that the strong specialisation and fragmentation of data and methods limit the transferability potential of previous research analysing climate-induced effects on beaches and tourist behaviour. Researchers from different fields bring their own conceptual models which often address similar problems but use different lenses and measurement units. Among the available studies, the ones with usable potential in a value transfer context are related to willingness to pay for adaptation measures. Overall, findings confirm that a greater transparency in the methodologies used to elicit values and a multidisciplinary approach are needed to ensure a more sustainable use of the information in order to fill knowledge gaps that still hinder the study of climate change

Urban air pollution and emergency room admissions for respiratory symptoms: a case-crossover study in Palermo, Italy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Air pollution from vehicular traffic has been associated with respiratory diseases. In Palermo, the largest metropolitan area in Sicily, urban air pollution is mainly addressed to traffic-related pollution because of lack of industrial settlements, and the presence of a temperate climate that contribute to the limited use of domestic heating plants. This study aimed to investigate the association between traffic-related air pollution and emergency room admissions for acute respiratory symptoms.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>From January 2004 through December 2007, air pollutant concentrations and emergency room visits were collected for a case-crossover study conducted in Palermo, Sicily. Risk estimates of short-term exposures to particulate matter and gaseous ambient pollutants including carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide were calculated by using a conditional logistic regression analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Emergency departments provided data on 48,519 visits for respiratory symptoms. Adjusted case-crossover analyses revealed stronger effects in the warm season for the most part of the pollutants considered, with a positive association for PM₁₀(odds ratio = 1.039, 95% confidence interval: 1.020 - 1.059), SO₂(OR = 1.068, 95% CI: 1.014 - 1.126), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂: OR = 1.043, 95% CI: 1.021 - 1.065), and CO (OR = 1.128, 95% CI: 1.074 - 1.184), especially among females (according to an increase of 10 μg/m³in PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂, and 1 mg/m³in CO exposure). A positive association was observed either in warm or in cold season only for PM₁₀.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings suggest that, in our setting, exposure to ambient levels of air pollution is an important determinant of emergency room (ER) visits for acute respiratory symptoms, particularly during the warm season. ER admittance may be considered a good proxy to evaluate the adverse effects of air pollution on respiratory health.</p

Gamma-ray and radio properties of six pulsars detected by the fermi large area telescope

We report the detection of pulsed γ-rays for PSRs J0631+1036, J0659+1414, J0742-2822, J1420-6048, J1509-5850, and J1718-3825 using the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (formerly known as GLAST). Although these six pulsars are diverse in terms of their spin parameters, they share an important feature: their γ-ray light curves are (at least given the current count statistics) single peaked. For two pulsars, there are hints for a double-peaked structure in the light curves. The shapes of the observed light curves of this group of pulsars are discussed in the light of models for which the emission originates from high up in the magnetosphere. The observed phases of the γ-ray light curves are, in general, consistent with those predicted by high-altitude models, although we speculate that the γ-ray emission of PSR J0659+1414, possibly featuring the softest spectrum of all Fermi pulsars coupled with a very low efficiency, arises from relatively low down in the magnetosphere. High-quality radio polarization data are available showing that all but one have a high degree of linear polarization. This allows us to place some constraints on the viewing geometry and aids the comparison of the γ-ray light curves with high-energy beam models

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio : a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and nonHDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results: Since similar to 1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at similar to 0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as similar to 0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to similar to 26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.Peer reviewe

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Do emotions matter? : coherent preferences under anchoring and emotional effects

Emotions can affect individuals' preferences and economic behavior. In this paper we consider the relationship between emotions and anchoring effects in non-market valuation. The findings show that although anchoring effects are relevant, elicited preferences are coherent, in the sense that they are sensitive to changes in the dimension of the good. Additionally, it is found that the relationship between emotional intensity and the level of anchoring is U-shaped, with anchoring declining as emotional intensity rises until a minimum is reached. Thus, preferences can be substantially less affected by anchoring effects if emotional intensity deviates from extreme values. Finally, it is found that the degree of sensitivity to scope is influenced by the level of emotional load involve in the valuation task.

The role of environmental management in consumers preferences for corporate social responsibility

Consumers in modern societies are increasingly sensitive to environmental performance by large and small corporations, making it a crucial issue in the overall policy of corporate social responsibility. The objective of this paper is to study the role of environmental performance in the profile of corporate social responsibility as perceived by consumers. We utilize a stated preference approach to the study of consumer’s preferences. This approach allows for the evaluation in monetary terms of the trade-offs that individuals can make between various aspects of corporate policy decisions, including the extent of environmental performance. The data is modelled by means of a mixture heuristics approach that allows us to study the utilization of various decision rules in the choice of products with various degrees of environmental performance. The results show that the linear compensatory heuristic is the most extended across individuals and these subjects value most the policies concerned with environmental management. Those subjects opting for the non-compensatory decision rule tend to focus on the attribute of good labour relations as the most salient factor defining corporate social responsibility. In addition, policy measures are relatively more valued for some products rather than for others, suggesting that consumers discriminate between products when valuing companies’ environmental profiles.