Nashville-basin tornadoes: using storm types to elucidate the local climatology and forecasting challenges

Early 3 March 2020 was a devastating night for many middle Tennessee residents. A strong EF-3 tornado tore through Nashville at 65 mph, and another EF-4 killed 18 in Baxter and Cookeville alone. Residents of the Southeastern United States are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes. This study aims to better understand local forecasting challenges by looking at the types of storms that produce tornadoes. Storm types, also known as convective modes, divide tornado-producing storms into categories by length, shape, multiplicity, and intensity. Distinguishing storms by these modes allows for a broader understanding of their occurrences and impacts. This study specifically evaluates three forecasting success metrics for the Nashville county warning area from 2012–2018. This includes probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and average lead time for four convective modes: cell in line, cell in cluster, discrete supercell, and quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). Three models were created to predict warnings, false alarms, and lead time with convective mode, nocturnality, and multiple-tornado days as predictors. The results affirm current literature findings that QLCSs are far more common to the Nashville basin than its surrounding areas, and QLCSs tend to occur at night as outbreaks. For this study period, QLCSs also have the best POD, FAR, and lead time, compared to other convective modes, which creates a unique climatological tornado profile that centers around QLCSs.

Mid-ocean ridge jumps associated with hotspot magmatism

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2007. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters 266 (2008): 256-270, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.10.055.Hotspot-ridge interaction produces a wide range of phenomena including excess crustal thickness, geochemical anomalies, off-axis volcanic ridges and ridge relocations or jumps. Ridges are recorded to have jumped toward many hotspots including, Iceland, Discovery, Galapagos, Kerguelen and Tristan de Cuhna. The causes of ridge jumps likely involve a number of interacting processes related to hotspots. One such process is reheating of the lithosphere as magma penetrates it to feed near-axis volcanism. We study this effect by using the hybrid, finite-element code, FLAC, to simulate two-dimensional (2-D, cross-section) viscous mantle flow, elasto-plastic deformation of the lithosphere and heat transport in a ridge setting near an off-axis hotspot. Heating due to magma transport through the lithosphere is implemented within a hotspot region of fixed width. To determine the conditions necessary to initiate a ridge jump, we vary four parameters: hotspot magmatic heating rate, spreading rate, seafloor age at the location of the hotspot and ridge migration rate. Our results indicate that the hotspot magmatic heating rate required to initiate a ridge jump increases non-linearly with increasing spreading rate and seafloor age. Models predict that magmatic heating, itself, is most likely to cause jumps at slow spreading rates such as at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge on Iceland. In contrast, despite the higher magma flux at the Galapagos hotspot, magmatic heating alone is probably insufficient to induce a ridge jump at the present-day due to the intermediate ridge spreading rate of the Galapagos Spreading Center. The time required to achieve a ridge jump, for fixed or migrating ridges, is found to be on the order of 105-106 years. Simulations that incorporate ridge migration predict that after a ridge jump occurs the hotspot and ridge migrate together for time periods that increase with magma flux. Model results also suggest a mechanism for ridge reorganizations not related to hotspots such as ridge jumps in back-arc settings and ridge segment propagation along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.Mittelstaedt, Ito and Behn were funded by NSF grant OCE03-51234 and OCE05-48672

Impact of local recharge on arsenic concentrations in shallow aquifers inferred from the electromagnetic conductivity of soils in Araihazar, Bangladesh

The high-degree of spatial variability of dissolved As levels in shallow aquifers of the Bengal Basin has been well documented but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We compare here As concentrations measured in groundwater pumped from 4700 wells <22 m (75 ft) deep across a 25 km2 area of Bangladesh with variations in the nature of surface soils inferred from 18,500 measurements of frequency domain electromagnetic induction. A set of 14 hand auger cores recovered from the same area indicate that a combination of grain size and the conductivity of soil water dominate the electromagnetic signal. The relationship between pairs of individual EM conductivity and dissolved As measurements within a distance of 50 m is significant but highly scattered (r2 = 0.12; n = 614). Concentrations of As tend to be lower in shallow aquifers underlying sandy soils and higher below finer-grained and high conductivity soils. Variations in EM conductivity account for nearly half the variance of the rate of increase of As concentration with depth, however, when the data are averaged over a distance of 50 m (r2 = 0.50; n = 145). The association is interpreted as an indication that groundwater recharge through permeable sandy soils prevents As concentrations from rising in shallow reducing groundwater

A pragmatic randomised controlled trial of the Welsh National Exercise Referral Scheme: protocol for trial and integrated economic and process evaluation

Background: The benefits to health of a physically active lifestyle are well established and there is evidence that a sedentary lifestyle plays a significant role in the onset and progression of chronic disease. Despite a recognised need for effective public health interventions encouraging sedentary people with a medical condition to become more active, there are few rigorous evaluations of their effectiveness. Following NICE guidance, the Welsh national exercise referral scheme was implemented within the context of a pragmatic randomised controlled trial. Methods/Design: The randomised controlled trial, with nested economic and process evaluations, recruited 2,104 inactive men and women aged 16+ with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors and/or mild to moderate depression, anxiety or stress. Participants were recruited from 12 local health boards in Wales and referred directly by health professionals working in a range of health care settings. Consenting participants were randomised to either a 16 week tailored exercise programme run by qualified exercise professionals at community sports centres (intervention), or received an information booklet on physical activity (control). A range of validated measures assessing physical activity, mental health, psycho-social processes and health economics were administered at 6 and 12 months, with the primary 12 month outcome measure being 7 day Physical Activity Recall. The process evaluation explored factors determining the effectiveness or otherwise of the scheme, whilst the economic evaluation determined the relative cost-effectiveness of the scheme in terms of public spending. Discussion: Evaluation of such a large scale national public health intervention presents methodological challenges in terms of trial design and implementation. This study was facilitated by early collaboration with social research and policy colleagues to develop a rigorous design which included an innovative approach to patient referral and trial recruitment, a comprehensive process evaluation examining intervention delivery and an integrated economic evaluation. This will allow a unique insight into the feasibility, effectiveness and cost effectiveness of a national exercise referral scheme for participants with CHD risk factors or mild to moderate anxiety, depression, or stress and provides a potential model for future policy evaluations. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN4768044

Developing Behavior Change Interventions

Peer reviewe

Implementation of an educational intervention to improve hand washing in primary schools: process evaluation within a randomised controlled trial

Background: Process evaluations are useful for understanding how interventions are implemented in trial settings. This is important for interpreting main trial results and indicating how the intervention might function beyond the trial. The purpose of this study was to examine the reach, dose, fidelity, acceptability, and sustainability of the implementation of an educational hand washing intervention in primary schools, and to explore views regarding acceptability and sustainability of the intervention. Methods: Process evaluation within a cluster randomised controlled trial, including focus groups with pupils aged 6 to 11, semi-structured interviews with teachers and external staff who coordinated the intervention delivery, and school reports and direct observations of the intervention delivery. Results: The educational package was delivered in 61.4% of schools (85.2% of intervention schools, 37.8% of control schools following completion of the trial). Teachers and pupils reacted positively to the intervention, although concerns were raised about the age-appropriateness of the resources. Teachers adapted the resources to suit their school setting and pupils. Staff coordinating the intervention delivery had limited capacity to follow up and respond to schools. Conclusions: The hand washing intervention was acceptable to schools, but its reach outside of a randomised trial, evidenced in the low proportion of schools in the control arm who received it after the trial had ended, suggests that the model of delivery may not be sustainable.Catherine R Chittleborough, Alexandra L Nicholson, Elaine Young, Sarah Bell and Rona Campbel

Changing Behavior : A Theory- and Evidence-Based Approach

Social problems in many domains, including health, education, social relationships, and the workplace, have their origins in human behavior. The documented links between behavior and social problems have sparked interest in governments and organizations to develop effective interventions to promote behavior change. The Handbook of Behavior Change provides comprehensive coverage of contemporary theory, research, and practice on behavior change. The handbook incorporates theory- and evidence-based approaches to behavior change with chapters from leading theorists, researchers, and practitioners from multiple disciplines, including psychology, sociology, behavioral science, economics, and implementation science. Chapters are organized into three parts: (1) Theory and Behavior Change; (2) Methods and Processes of Behavior Change: Intervention Development, Application, and Translation; and (3) Behavior Change Interventions: Practical Guides to Behavior Change. This chapter provides an overview of the theory- and evidence-based approaches of the handbook, introduces the content of the handbook, and provides suggestions on how the handbook may be used by different readers. The handbook aims to provide all interested in behavior change, including researchers and students, practitioners, and policy makers, with up-to-date knowledge on behavior change and guidance on how to develop effective interventions to change behavior in different populations and contexts.Peer reviewe

Сверхлегкие генераторные модули для КВЧ-терапии

Разработаны миниатюрные генераторные модули для КВЧ-терапии, лег-ко фиксируемые в любом месте тела пациента. Могут быть использованы не только в медицине

Modifying Alcohol Consumption to Reduce Obesity (MACRO): development and feasibility trial of a complex community-based intervention for men

BackgroundObese men who consume alcohol are at a greatly increased risk of liver disease; those who drink > 14 units of alcohol per week have a 19-fold increased risk of dying from liver disease.ObjectivesTo develop an intervention to reduce alcohol consumption in obese men and to assess the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to investigate its effectiveness.Design of the interventionThe intervention was developed using formative research, public involvement and behaviour change theory. It was organised in two phases, comprising a face-to-face session with trained laypeople (study co-ordinators) followed by a series of text messages. Participants explored how alcohol consumption contributed to weight gain, both through direct calorie consumption and through its effect on increasing food consumption, particularly of high-calorie foodstuffs. Men were encouraged to set goals to reduce their alcohol consumption and to make specific plans to do so. The comparator group received an active control in the form of a conventional alcohol brief intervention. Randomisation was carried out using the secure remote web-based system provided by the Tayside Clinical Trials Unit. Randomisation was stratified by the recruitment method and restricted using block sizes of randomly varying lengths. Members of the public were involved in the development of all study methods.SettingMen were recruited from the community, from primary care registers and by time–space sampling (TSS). The intervention was delivered in community settings such as the participant’s home, community centres and libraries.ParticipantsMen aged 35–64 years who had a body mass index (BMI) of > 30 kg/m2 and who drank > 21 units of alcohol per week.ResultsThe screening methods successfully identified participants meeting the entry criteria. Trial recruitment was successful, with 69 men (36 from 419 approached in primary care, and 33 from 470 approached via TSS) recruited and randomised in 3 months. Of the 69 men randomised, 35 were allocated to the intervention group and 34 to the control group. The analysis was conducted on 31 participants from the intervention group and 30 from the control group. The participants covered a wide range of ages and socioeconomic statuses. The average alcohol consumption of the men recruited was 47.2 units per week, more than twice that of the entry criterion (> 21 units per week). Most (78%) engaged in binge drinking (> 8 units in a session) at least weekly. Almost all (95%) exceeded the threshold for a 19-fold increase in the risk of dying from liver disease (BMI of > 30 kg/m2 and > 14 units of alcohol per week). Despite this, they believed that they were at low risk of harm from alcohol, possibly because they seldom suffered acute harms (e.g. hangovers) and made few visits to a general practitioner or hospital.InterventionThe intervention was delivered with high fidelity. A high follow-up rate was achieved (98%) and the outcomes for the full RCT were measured. A process evaluation showed that participants engaged with the main components of the intervention. The acceptability of the study methods was high.ConclusionsThis feasibility study developed a novel intervention and evaluated all of the stages of a RCT that would test the effectiveness of the intervention. The main stages of a trial were completed successfully: recruitment, randomisation, intervention delivery, follow-up and measurement of study outcomes. Most of the men recruited drank very heavily and were also obese. This places them at a very high risk of liver disease, making them a priority for intervention