Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach

BACKGROUND: Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk. METHODS: The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves. RESULTS: The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors. CONCLUSION: The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed

Multiple disruptions: circumstances and experiences of young people living with homelessness and unemployment

This article is about young people who have experienced both homelessness and unemployment, with their interacting impacts. While ‘young people’ is usually understood to include those beyond childhood and up to 25 years of age, the homelessness services that initiated YP4 decided that the project should focus on people in the first one-third of their expected working lives. Thus the eligible age group for YP4 was 18−35 years. In practice, 75 per cent of participants were aged 25 years and under. This paper presents a more detailed descriptive profile than has previously been published regarding the circumstances of young people living with homelessness and unemployment. This profile confirms and adds quantification to previously published material on the complex disadvantages experienced by these young people. Our findings are indicative of the circumstances of the broader population of young Australians in these circumstances

A History of Union Organisation of Laundry Work in Western Australia 1912 - 1975

The laundry industry in Western Australia has divided into two major sectors: the private commercial and the government hospital laundries. This labour intensive service industry has relied on a labour market structured to provide a workforce of women to satisfy its demand for cheap labour. The many analyses of workplace practices place strong emphasis on both the broad gender division of labour and gender segregation on the factory floor. This thesis does not dispute the realities of these forces which place women in jobs deemed unskilled and unworthy. The introduction of new technologies further deskilled and divided the female workforce in all laundries. Unity of action to improve their conditions and wages was difficult. External forces provided the impetus. Unions as key institutions of organised labour have been the vehicle for reform. Many studies state that the very essence of unionism, its maleness, has been reflected in the failure of the union movement to assist women. This thesis supports that conclusion but also argues that the success of unionism for laundry workers was restricted by the structure of the industry. Private sector managements' willingness to consider reform was determined by competition. This limitation did not arise in the government sector where managements accepted greater responsibility towards workers. An analysis of the work of the Metropolitan Laundry Employees' Union and the Hospital Employees' Union over the sixty three year period of this study shows that the success of the unionisation of the laundry workers depended primarily on the structure of the industry as well as the nature of the work, the role of technology and the quality of union leadership. Underlying all these factors was society's fundamental assumption that laundry work was women's work

The relationship between cognition and mortality in a community sample of older adults

Cognitive performance has previously been shown to be associated with time to death in a broad range of studies. There are multiple perspectives that have been used to better understand this relationship, including identifying the types of cognitive abilities that predict mortality, investigating potential mechanisms that might explain the relationship, examining whether level of ability or changes in ability are responsible for the association, assessing evidence of terminal decline and exploring patterns of late-life decline. It is also important to rule out the confounding of the relationship between cognition and time to death by other factors such as mental health. Five research articles investigated multiple aspects of the relationship between cognition and mortality using the Canberra Longitudinal Study cohort, a sample of 896 community-dweIIing Australians aged 70 and older. Findings suggested that fluid inteIIigence was a better predictor of mortality than crystaIIised inteIIigence. While socioeconomic status, health behaviours and health status accounted for some of the variance in the relationship, certain domains of cognitive ability including processing speed and global ability had an independent effect on mortality. Using unbiased estimates of cognitive change, it was found that initial cognitive performance was a better predictor of mortality, particularly cardiovascular mortality, than the rate of change in ability. However, there was evidence of terminal decline in the sample, with decline accelerating two-to four-fold, beginning 6-8 years prior to death across various abilities. Although education modified the time course of terminal decline, the effects were not consistent with the predictions of the cognitive reserve hypothesis. Age-related decline in ability could not be attributed to common biological constraints, as little evidence was found for late-life dedifferentiation of abilities after accounting for dementia. FinaIIy, depression and anxiety had no significant association with mortality after accounting for physical health, indicating that the cognition-mortality relationship did not result from confounding by mental health status. Overall, late-life cognitive performance appears to be related to mortality partly because it reflects life-long outcomes from a range of health behaviours, disease states, educational experience and socioeconomic background. In addition, pathological events including dementia and cardiovascular changes may contribute to the decline of cognitive performance that occurs in proximity to death. However, beyond these influences, there is an aspect of cognitive ability that is independently predictive of mortality

The good, the bad and the ugly

In late 2015 world leaders finalized the landmark Paris Agreement at COP21. Although the agreement represents a historical step toward collaboration on climate, the total amount of emissions reduction commitments is considered insufficient to meet the 2°C, and especially the more ambitious 1.5°C, warming goal. However, history is filled with technological innovations that were once unimaginable. As new technologies come to market, almost regardless of the field of use, costs have continued to fall in real terms. Whether or not we can expect the same from CO2 mitigation technologies will impact whether the world can actually meet its climate commitments and goals. This presentation will look at the challenges facing CO2 mitigation and the ultimate role of innovation

The first ten years of the Kindergarten Teachers' Association of Western Australia: 1962-1972

Kindergartens like bathrooms are necessary in this modem society..

Modelling Water Use in Thailand

In this paper a model is proposed for analysing alternative policies that might be used in allocating water in Thailand. The model used is an integration of farm linear programming models with a spatial equilibrium model, using the so-called price-linked farm and spatial model (Batterham and MacAulay, 1994). A method of linking spatial equilibrium models and linear programming representations of farm models via the demand side as opposed to the supply side is outlined in this paper. A case study is made of the Chao Phraya Delta, an area that is progressively challenged by competing claims for water use and which needs to better allocate water resources.water use, spatial equilibrium model, Thailand, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,