Long-term development and trajectories of inferred lake-water organic carbon and pH in naturally acidic boreal lakes

Acknowledgements: Financial support was provided by the Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet; grants no.2008-03741, 2011-03638 and 2014-05219). We thank the many people in the research group who have contributed data over the years and the four anonymous reviewers whose comments significantly contributed to improving the manuscript. The authors declare no conflict of interestPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Neoglacial lake-ecosystem changes above and below the subarctic Fennoscandian treeline inferred from changes in diatom functional groups

Algal communities act as sensitive indicators of past and present climate effects on northern lakes, but their responses can vary considerably between ecosystems. Functional trait-based approaches may help us better understand the nature of the diverse biotic responses and their underlying ecosystem changes. We explored patterns in diatom (Bacillariophyceae) growth forms and species composition during the Neoglacial in two shallow lakes typical of subarctic regions, including a dark-colored woodland lake and a clear tundra lake. Sediment carbon and nitrogen elemental and isotope biogeochemistry and spectral indices were used to track broadscale changes in lake productivity, the inflow of organic carbon from land, and benthic substratum over the past three millennia. The biogeochemical indices tracked declines in land-lake connectivity as well as lake-water and sediment organic enrichment above and below the subarctic treeline driven by Neoglacial cooling. This broadscale environmental transition was intercepted by periods of elevated primary production associated with transient Neoglacial warm anomalies and, in particular, the twentieth century warming. Although the Neoglacial development of the lakes showed conspicuous similarities, diatom functional and taxonomic responses were not uniform between the lakes pointing to intrinsic differences in the development of benthic habitats and underwater-light regimes. Many of the observed biotic shifts aligned with expectations based on earlier research linking diatom functional traits to changing light and organic levels but the results also point to further research needs, particularly to better differentiate the individual and interactive effects of substratum and light. Despite distinct anthropogenic imprints in the biogeochemical record, the scale of human impact on the lakes' biota has not, as yet, been profound, but the changes are nonetheless clear when compared to the previous three millennia of natural lake development.Peer reviewe

Inferring past trends in lake water organic carbon concentrations in northern lakes using sediment spectroscopy

Changing lake water total organic carbon (TOC)concentrations are of concern for lake management because of corresponding effects on aquatic ecosystem functioning, drinking water resources and carbon cycling between land and sea. Understanding the importance of human activities on TOC changes requires knowledge of past concentrations; however, water-monitoring data are typically only available for the past few decades, if at all. Here, we present a universal model to infer past lake water TOC concentrations in northern lakes across Europe and North America that uses visible-near-infrared (VNIR) spectroscopy on lake sediments. In the orthogonal partial least squares model, VNIR spectra of surface-sediment samples are calibrated against corresponding surface-water TOC concentrations (0.5–41 mg L-1) from 345 Arctic to northern temperate lakes in Canada, Greenland, Sweden and Finland. Internal model-cross-validation resulted in a R2 of 0.57 and a prediction error of 4.4 mg TOC L-1. First applications to lakes in southern Ontario and Scotland, which are outside of the model’s geographic range, show the model accurately captures monitoring trends, and suggests that TOC dynamics during the 20th century at these sites were primarily driven by changes in atmospheric deposition. Our results demonstrate that the lake-water TOC model has multi-regional applications and is not biased by post-depositional diagenesis, allowing the identification of past TOC variations in northern lakes of Europe and North America over timescales of decades to millennia

Traces of sunlight in the organic matter biogeochemistry of two shallow subarctic lakes

Global environmental change alters the production, terrestrial export, and photodegradation of organic carbon in northern lakes. Sedimentary biogeochemical records can provide a unique means to understand the nature of these changes over long time scales, where observational data fall short. We deployed in situ experiments on two shallow subarctic lakes with contrasting light regimes; a clear tundra lake and a dark woodland lake, to first investigate the photochemical transformation of carbon and nitrogen elemental (C/N ratio) and isotope (δ13C, δ15N) composition in lake water particulate organic matter (POM) for downcore inferences. We then explored elemental, isotopic, and spectral (inferred lake water total organic carbon [TOC] and sediment chlorophyll a [CHLa]) fingerprints in the lake sediments to trace changes in aquatic production, terrestrial inputs and photodegradation before and after profound human impacts on the global carbon cycle prompted by industrialization. POM pool in both lakes displayed tentative evidence of UV photoreactivity, reflected as increasing δ13C and decreasing C/N values. Through time, the tundra lake sediments traced subtle shifts in primary production, while the woodland lake carried signals of changing terrestrial contributions, indicating shifts in terrestrial carbon export but possibly also photodegradation rates. Under global human impact, both lakes irrespective of their distinct carbon regimes displayed evidence of increased productivity but no conspicuous signs of increased terrestrial influence. Overall, sediment biogeochemistry can integrate a wealth of information on carbon regulation in northern lakes, while our results also point to the importance of considering the entire spectrum of photobiogeochemical fingerprints in sedimentary studies.</p

Regional Holocene climate and landscape changes recorded in the large subarctic lake Torneträsk, N Fennoscandia

Understanding the response of sensitive Arctic and subarctic landscapes to climate change is essential to determine the risks of ongoing and projected climate warming. However, these responses will not be uniform in terms of timing and magnitude across the landscape because of site-specific differences in ecosystem susceptibility to climate forcing. Here we present a multi-proxy analysis of a sediment record from the 330-km2 lake Torneträsk to assess the sensitivity of the Fennoscandian subarctic landscape to climate change over the past ~ 9500 years. By comparing responses of this large-lake system to past climatic and environmental changes with those in small lakes in its catchment, we assessed when the magnitude of change was sufficient to affect an entire region rather than only specific sub-catchments that may be more sensitive to localized environmental changes such as, e.g., tree-line dynamics. Our results show three periods of regional landscape alteration with distinct change in sediment composition: i) landscape development following deglaciation and through the Holocene Thermal Maximum, ~ 9500–3400 cal yr BP; ii) increased soil erosion during the Little Ice Age (LIA); and iii) rapid change during the past century coincident with ongoing climate change. The gradual landscape development led to successive changes in the lake sediment composition over several millennia, whereas climate cooling during the late Holocene caused a rather abrupt shift occurring within ~ 100 years. However, this shift at the onset of the LIA (~ 750 cal yr BP) occurred > 2000 years later than the first indications for climate cooling recorded in small lakes in the Torneträsk catchment, suggesting that a critical ecosystem threshold was not crossed until the LIA. In contrast, the ongoing response to recent climate change was immediate, emphasizing the unprecedented scale of ongoing climate changes in subarctic Fennoscandia

Biodiversity post-2020: Closing the gap between global targets and national-level implementation

National and local governments need to step up efforts to effectively implement the post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity to halt and reverse worsening biodiversity trends. Drawing on recent advances in interdisciplinary biodiversity science, we propose a framework for improved implementation by national and subnational governments. First, the identification of actions and the promotion of ownership across stakeholders need to recognize the multiple values of biodiversity and account for remote responsibility. Second, cross-sectorial implementation and mainstreaming should adopt scalable and multifunctional ecosystem restoration approaches and target positive futures for nature and people. Third, assessment of progress and adaptive management can be informed by novel biodiversity monitoring and modeling approaches handling the multidimensionality of biodiversity change

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI