Analysis of climate data in Portugal : tendencies and associations with agricultural insurance losses

Mestrado Bolonha em Data Analytics for BusinessClimate change and weather-related catastrophes have been putting pressure on nature-dependent sectors such as Agriculture. The insurance business is a support mechanism for these vulnerable activities. Thus, in this work we intend to study the relationship between losses in the agricultural sector, particularly the ones partially supported by insurance companies, by analysing climate and insurance data. Because of this relationship we believe that insurance companies contract definitions should be based on scientific evidence. To correctly understand the climate data, provided by IPMA, it is necessary to treat the collected data. That was done in this work using the CLIMATOL software and by analysing standard quality checks that guarantee the goodness of our data. We used the treated data for trend analysis. Agriculture-Insurance related data was collected from the website IFAP, which contains a publicly available dataset that concerns information about the Crop Insurance variables and Governmental aid to farmers. We will analyse to which extent the insurance companies and Government base their budgeting and policy definition on the scientific analysis of weather data. This was done by means of regression models and analysing the impact of each created variable for different groups of crops and regions. For the treatment and manipulation of the data, it was used inhouse R code and PowerBI as the data visualization tool.As alterações climáticas e as catástrofes naturais têm vindo a pôr pressão sobre os setores dependentes da natureza, nomeadamente a agricultura. As seguradoras surgem como mecanismos de suporte para estas atividades mais vulneráveis. Consequentemente, neste trabalho, através da análise dos dados do clima e dos dados de seguros, pretendemos perceber a relação que existe entre as perdas no setor agrícola, em particular aquelas que são suportadas em parte pelas companhias de seguros. Esta relação que parece existir entre os setores leva-nos a crer que a definição de contratos de seguros deve ter uma base científica. De forma a analisar corretamente os dados do clima, disponibilizados pelo IPMA, é necessário tratar os mesmos para que possam ser utilizados. Esse tratamento de dados foi feito neste trabalho através da utilização do software CLIMATOL e da análise de critérios de qualidade de forma a garantir a qualidade dos dados a utilizar. Após tratados, os dados foram utilizados para análise de tendências. Os dados relacionados com os seguros agrícolas foram obtidos através do website do IFAP, estando disponíveis publicamente. A base de dados utilizada contém informação sobre variáveis de seguros agrícolas e apoios estatais aos agricultores. Foram analisados até que ponto é que a definição de orçamentos e de políticas bem como dos prémios de seguro são baseados na análise científica da evolução do clima. Para tal, utilizámos modelos de regressão que estudassem estas relações para diferentes regiões e conjuntos de culturas. Para o tratamento e manipulação dos dados foram utilizados códigos de R e o PowerBI como ferramenta de visualização.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Epidemiologia da exposição pré-natal à cocaína e suas repercussões no recém-nascido

11

Transferring mothers from a free-standing birth center to a reference hospital

Estudo descritivo com objetivo de caracterizar as remoções maternas da Casa do Parto de Sapopemba, em São Paulo, para hospitais de referência, entre setembro de 1998 e julho de 2008. A população do estudo compôs-se de 229 casos. Os dados foram obtidos dos prontuários e dos livros de registro de remoções. Foi realizada análise descritiva. A taxa de remoção materna foi de 5,8% (5,5% intraparto e 0,3% pós-parto). A maioria das mulheres removidas para o hospital era nulípara (78,6%). O motivo mais frequente para remoção intraparto foi anormalidade da pélvis materna ou do feto (22,6%) e para a remoção pós-parto, anormalidade da dequitação (50%). Destacaram-se a nuliparidade, dilatação cervical na admissão, membranas ovulares rotas e idade gestacional superior a 40 semanas como variáveis importantes para o estudo de fatores de risco para remoção materna.The objective of this descriptive study was to characterize the transfers of mothers from the Sapopemba Birth Center to reference hospitals in São Paulo, from September 1998 to July 2008. The studied population was 229 cases of mother transfers. Data were obtained from medical records and record books of the transferred women. Descriptive analysis was performed. The transfer rate was 5.8% (5.5% in the intrapartum period and 0.3% in the postpartum period). Most women who were transferred to the hospital were nulliparous (78.6%). The most common reason for intrapartum transfers was fetal or pelvis abnormalities (22.6%), and abnormal placental detachment (50%) for women in the postpartum period. Some conditions such as nulliparity, cervical dilation at admission, rupture of the membranes and gestational age over 40 weeks were highlighted as important variables for studying the risk factors for mothers being transferred.Estudio descriptivo que objetivó caracterizar las remociones maternas de la Casa del Parto de Sapopemba-SP para hospitales de referencia entre setiembre 1998 y julio 2008. La población del estudio se compuso de 229 casos de remoción materna. Los datos se obtuvieron de las historias clínicas y libros de registro de remociones. Se realizó análisis descriptivo. La tasa de remoción materna fue del 5,8% (5,5% intraparto y 0,3% postparto). La mayoría de las mujeres derivadas para hospitales era nulípara (78,6). El motivo más frecuente de derivación intraparto fue anormalidad de pelvis materna o del feto (22,6%), y para cada remoción postparto, anormalidad de expulsión placentaria (50%). Tuvieron destaque la nuliparidad, dilatación cervical en la admisión, membranas ovulares rotas y edad gestacional superior a 40 semanas como variables importantes para el estudio de factores de riesgo en la remoción materna

Propriedades reológicas e efeito da adição de sal na viscosidade de exopolissacarídeos produzidos por bactérias do gênero Rhizobium

Viscosity of some polysaccharide solutions supports that these molecules can be applied in food sectors. Four exopolysaccharides (R1, R2, R3, R4) produced by different Rhizobium strains were selected. Sugar composition and differences in the uronic acid contents suggests that chemical structure of these molecules can vary when different culture conditions and strains are analyzed. The Power Law was the rheological model used to represent the experimental data of shear stress versus shear rate. All exopolysaccharides showed non-Newtonian behavior, with pseudoplastic characteristics. R1, R2 and R4 showed a slight increase in viscosity in the presence of 0,2 M NaCl

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Sensitivity of South American tropical forests to an extreme climate anomaly

The tropical forest carbon sink is known to be drought sensitive, but it is unclear which forests are the most vulnerable to extreme events. Forests with hotter and drier baseline conditions may be protected by prior adaptation, or more vulnerable because they operate closer to physiological limits. Here we report that forests in drier South American climates experienced the greatest impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño, indicating greater vulnerability to extreme temperatures and drought. The long-term, ground-measured tree-by-tree responses of 123 forest plots across tropical South America show that the biomass carbon sink ceased during the event with carbon balance becoming indistinguishable from zero (−0.02 ± 0.37 Mg C ha −1 per year). However, intact tropical South American forests overall were no more sensitive to the extreme 2015–2016 El Niño than to previous less intense events, remaining a key defence against climate change as long as they are protected

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions