Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced to 5 times with Bayesian updating, using only few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making

Screening of antioxidant properties of the apple juice using the front-face synchronous fluorescence and chemometrics

Fluorescence spectroscopy is gaining increasing attention in food analysis due to its higher sensitivity and selectivity as compared to other spectroscopic techniques. Synchronous scanning fluorescence technique is particularly useful in studies of multi-fluorophoric food samples, providing a further improvement of selectivity by reduction in the spectral overlapping and suppressing light-scattering interferences. Presently, we study the feasibility of the prediction of the total phenolics, flavonoids, and antioxidant capacity using front-face synchronous fluorescence spectra of apple juices. Commercial apple juices from different product ranges were studied. Principal component analysis (PCA) applied to the unfolded synchronous fluorescence spectra was used to compare the fluorescence of the entire sample set. The regression analysis was performed using partial least squares (PLS1 and PLS2) methods on the unfolded total synchronous and on the single-offset synchronous fluorescence spectra. The best calibration models for all of the studied parameters were obtained using the PLS1 method for the single-offset synchronous spectra. The models for the prediction of the total flavonoid content had the best performance; the optimal model was obtained for the analysis of the synchronous fluorescence spectra at Delta lambda = 110 nm (R (2) = 0.870, residual predictive deviation (RPD) = 2.7). The optimal calibration models for the prediction of the total phenolic content (Delta lambda = 80 nm, R (2) = 0.766, RPD = 2.0) and the total antioxidant capacity (Delta lambda = 70 nm, R (2) = 0.787, RPD = 2.1) had only an approximate predictive ability. These results demonstrate that synchronous fluorescence could be a useful tool in fast semi-quantitative screening for the antioxidant properties of the apple juices.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Аксіологічні виміри душпастирства у творах Іоана Золотоустого

Стаття Світлани Білоус "Аксіологічні виміри душпастирства у творах Іоана Золотоустого" присвячена пошуку джерел духовної опіки над людиною, витоки яких автор бачить у християнському середньовіччі. Життя і творча спадщина Іоана Золотоустого – яскравий приклад пояснення сутності й визначення ціннісної природи душпастирювання крізь призму поняття священства.Статья Светланы Билоус "Аксиологические измерения душпастирства в произведениях Іоана Золотоустого" посвящена поиску источников духовной опеки над человеком, истоки которіх автор видит в христианском средневековье. Жизнь и творческое наследство Иоанна Золотоустого – яркий пример объяснения сущности и определение ценностной природы душпастирства сквозь призму понятия священства.The article by Svitlana Bilous "Axiological dimensions of priesthood in the Ioan Zolotoustyi’s works" is dedicated to finding sources of spiritual care over a human, the origin of which the author sees in the Christian Middle Ages. The life and literary heredity of Ioan Zolotoustyi is a brilliant pattern of explaining the essence and definition of valuable ​​nature of pastoral care through the prism of the concept of the priesthood

Uniparental Genetic Heritage of Belarusians: Encounter of Rare Middle Eastern Matrilineages with a Central European Mitochondrial DNA Pool

Ethnic Belarusians make up more than 80% of the nine and half million people inhabiting the Republic of Belarus. Belarusians together with Ukrainians and Russians represent the East Slavic linguistic group, largest both in numbers and territory, inhabiting East Europe alongside Baltic-, Finno-Permic- and Turkic-speaking people. Till date, only a limited number of low resolution genetic studies have been performed on this population. Therefore, with the phylogeographic analysis of 565 Y-chromosomes and 267 mitochondrial DNAs from six well covered geographic sub-regions of Belarus we strove to complement the existing genetic profile of eastern Europeans. Our results reveal that around 80% of the paternal Belarusian gene pool is composed of R1a, I2a and N1c Y-chromosome haplogroups – a profile which is very similar to the two other eastern European populations – Ukrainians and Russians. The maternal Belarusian gene pool encompasses a full range of West Eurasian haplogroups and agrees well with the genetic structure of central-east European populations. Our data attest that latitudinal gradients characterize the variation of the uniparentally transmitted gene pools of modern Belarusians. In particular, the Y-chromosome reflects movements of people in central-east Europe, starting probably as early as the beginning of the Holocene. Furthermore, the matrilineal legacy of Belarusians retains two rare mitochondrial DNA haplogroups, N1a3 and N3, whose phylogeographies were explored in detail after de novo sequencing of 20 and 13 complete mitogenomes, respectively, from all over Eurasia. Our phylogeographic analyses reveal that two mitochondrial DNA lineages, N3 and N1a3, both of Middle Eastern origin, might mark distinct events of matrilineal gene flow to Europe: during the mid-Holocene period and around the Pleistocene-Holocene transition, respectively

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Application of a risk-management framework for integration of stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in clinical trials

Stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) are a potential predictive biomarker for immunotherapy response in metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). To incorporate sTILs into clinical trials and diagnostics, reliable assessment is essential. In this review, we propose a new concept, namely the implementation of a risk-management framework that enables the use of sTILs as a stratification factor in clinical trials. We present the design of a biomarker risk-mitigation workflow that can be applied to any biomarker incorporation in clinical trials. We demonstrate the implementation of this concept using sTILs as an integral biomarker in a single-center phase II immunotherapy trial for metastatic TNBC (TONIC trial, NCT02499367), using this workflow to mitigate risks of suboptimal inclusion of sTILs in this specific trial. In this review, we demonstrate that a web-based scoring platform can mitigate potential risk factors when including sTILs in clinical trials, and we argue that this framework can be applied for any future biomarker-driven clinical trial setting

Is FLT3 internal tandem duplication an unfavorable risk factor for high risk children with acute myeloid leukemia? : Polish experience

According to the AML-BFM 2004 Interim, a treatment protocol used in Poland since 2005, presence of FLT3 internal tandem duplication (FLT3/ITD) qualifies a patient with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) to a high-risk group (HRG). The present study was aimed to identify the prevalence of FLT3/ITD in children with AML in Poland and to evaluate its prognostic significance in the HRG patients. Out of 291 children with de novo AML treated in 14 Polish centers between January 2006 and December 2012, samples from 174 patients were available for FLT3/ITD analysis. Among study patients 108 children (61.7%) were qualified to HRG. Genomic DNA samples from bone marrow were tested for identification of FLT3/ITD mutation by PCR amplification of exon 14 and 15 of FLT3 gene. Clinical features and treatment outcome in patients with and without FLT3/ITD were analyzed in the study. The FLT3/ITD was found in 14 (12.9%) of 108 HRG children. There were no significant differences between children with and without FLT3/ITD in age and FAB distribution. The white blood cells count in peripheral blood at diagnosis was significantly higher (p <0.01) in the children with FLT3/ITD. Over 5-year overall survival rate for FLT3/ITD positive children was worse (42.4%) comparing to FLT3/ITD negative children (58.9%), but the statistical difference was not significant. However, over 5-year survivals free from treatment failures were similar. The FLT3/ITD rate (12.9%) observed in the study corresponded to the published data. There was no significant impact of FLT3/ITD mutation on survival rates, although further studies are needed on this subject

Disordered Structural Ensembles of Vasopressin and Oxytocin and Their Mutants

Vasopressin and oxytocin are intrinsically disordered cyclic nonapeptides belonging to a family of neurohypophysial hormones. Although unique in their functions, these peptides differ only by two residues and both feature a tocin ring formed by the disulfide bridge between first and sixth cysteine residues. This sequence and structural similarity are experimentally linked to oxytocin agonism at vasopressin receptors and vasopressin antagonism at oxytocin receptors. Yet single- or double-residue mutations in both peptides have been shown to have drastic impacts on their activities at either receptor, and possibly the ability to bind to their neurophysin carrier protein. In this study we perform molecular dynamics simulations of the unbound native and mutant sequences of the oxytocin and vasopressin hormones to characterize their structural ensembles. We classify the subpopulations of these structural ensembles on the basis of the distributions of radius of gyration and secondary structure and hydrogen-bonding features of the canonical tocin ring and disordered tail region. We then relate the structural changes observed in the unbound form of the different hormone sequences to experimental information about peptide receptor binding, and more indirectly, carrier protein binding affinity, receptor activity, and protease degradation. This study supports the hypothesis that the structural characteristics of the unbound form of an IDP can be used to predict structural or functional preferences of its functional bound form

Oligomerization of ZFYVE27 (Protrudin) Is Necessary to Promote Neurite Extension

ZFYVE27 (Protrudin) was originally identified as an interacting partner of spastin, which is most frequently mutated in hereditary spastic paraplegia. ZFYVE27 is a novel member of FYVE family, which is implicated in the formation of neurite extensions by promoting directional membrane trafficking in neurons. Now, through a yeast two-hybrid screen, we have identified that ZFYVE27 interacts with itself and the core interaction region resides within the third hydrophobic region (HR3) of the protein. We confirmed the ZFYVE27's self-interaction in the mammalian cells by co-immunoprecipitation and co-localization studies. To decipher the oligomeric nature of ZFYVE27, we performed sucrose gradient centrifugation and showed that ZFYVE27 oligomerizes into dimer/tetramer forms. Sub-cellular fractionation and Triton X-114 membrane phase separation analysis indicated that ZFYVE27 is a peripheral membrane protein. Furthermore, ZFYVE27 also binds to phosphatidylinositol 3-phosphate lipid moiety. Interestingly, cells expressing ZFYVE27ΔHR3 failed to produce protrusions instead caused swelling of cell soma. When ZFYVE27ΔHR3 was co-expressed with wild-type ZFYVE27 (ZFYVE27WT), it exerted a dominant negative effect on ZFYVE27WT as the cells co-expressing both proteins were also unable to induce protrusions and showed cytoplasmic swelling. Altogether, it is evident that a functionally active form of oligomer is crucial for ZFYVE27 ability to promote neurite extensions