Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Insulin and Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonist Combination Therapy in Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

The combination of basal insulin plus a glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) has been proposed as a treatment option to intensify insulin therapy in type 2 diabetes. We performed a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing this combination strategy to other injectable antidiabetes treatments on metabolic control in adult patients with type 2 diabetes

Malignant melanoma Clustering with some familial/hereditary tumors

Germline mutations of the CDKN2 and CDK4 genes that are involved in the cell cycle regulation, have been associated with malignant melanoma (MM). However, these mutations have been detected only in some cases of familial MM, particularly in Sweden and in Italy, which suggests that other genes are involved in the pathogenesis of hereditary MM. Few data are available about the clustering between MM and familial or hereditary tumours (e.g. breast cancer, ovarian cancer, colon cancer, pancreatic cancer). In this respect, the Breast Cancer Linkage Consortium reported that carriers of germline mutations in the BRCA2 predisposing gene have a significantly increased risk for MM (RR = 2.58; 95% CI = 1.28-5.17). The aim of the present study was to determine the family history of 342 consecutive cases of MM observed from 1994 to date. Specifically, we looked for: MM associated with other malignant neoplasias; familial clustering of MM; and a family history of cancer. Malignant melanoma was associated with other tumours in 20/342 patients (5.84%); a history of MM was associated to a positive family history of cancer in 31/342 cases (9.06%); and familial clustering of MM was detected in 22/342 (6.4%) of the consecutive series of patients analysed. The pedigree of patient who have a family history of MM or other cancers is being constructed

Retrospective Analysis of Familial Clustering for Malignant Melanoma

Background: Malignant Melanoma (MM) is familial in 5-7% of cases. Germline mutations of the CDKN2 and CDK4 genes are involved in the pathogenesis of hereditary MM, but the high frequency of familial clustering suggests other genes involved. MM seems to cluster with hereditary syndrome such as Hereditary Breast/Ovarian Cancer (HBOC). In this respect, some authors reported that carriers of BRCA 2 germline mutations have a significantly increased risk for MM (RR: 2.58). Aims: We investigate family history of MM patients to define the familial clustering for MM and history for othe tumours. Methods: We retrospectively analysed family of 342 consecutive MM cases referred from 1994 to 2002 to the “Gruppo Melanoma”, Azienda Universitaria Policlinico, University “Federico II” of Naples. We divided the cases into four subsets: 1) multiple MM; 2) MM aggregated with other tumours in the proband; 3) MM with a family history of MM; and 4) MM with a family history of other tumours. We collected the pedigree, after informed consent, in all cases with a family history of MM or other tumours. Results: data analysis showed: multiple MM in 5/342 cases (1.46%); MM aggregated with other tumours in the proband in 10/342 cases (2.9%); MM with a family history of MM in 13/342 cases (3.8%) and MM with a family history of other tumours in 28/342 cases (8.2%). We propose pedigree construction to 41 subjects: we collected 23 pedigrees, 14 pedigree are ongoing, while 4 cases refused their consent. Conclusion: Patient affected by Malignant Melanoma seems to be at increased risk to develop other tumours and healthy individuals belonging to families with a high clustering for malignant melanoma and other tumours could be at risk for cancers

European Safety Analysis of mRNA and Viral Vector COVID-19 Vaccines on Glucose Metabolism Events

Few data have been published on the effects of impaired glucose metabolism induced by COVID-19 vaccines. We decided to perform a study to describe Individual Case Safety Reports (ICSRs) of impaired glucose metabolism events reported in the European database (Eudravigilance, EV). IC-SRs were retrieved from the online website of Eudravigilance. The reporting odds ratios (ROR) were computed to assess the reporting frequency for COVID-19 mRNA vaccines compared to COVID-19 viral vector-based vaccines. A total of 3917 ICSRs with a COVID-19 vaccine suspected were retrieved, with a total of 4275 impaired glucose metabolism events. Overall, the most reported events were related to "high glucose levels" (2012; 47.06%). The mRNA vaccines were associated with an increased reporting frequency of "type 1 diabetes mellitus" (ROR 1.86; 95% CI 1.33-2.60), "type 2 diabetes mellitus" (ROR 1.58; 95% CI 1.03-2.42), "high glucose levels" (ROR 1.16; 95% CI 1.06-1.27), "diabetes mellitus inadequate control" (ROR 1.63; 95% CI 1.25-2.11), and "hypoglycemia" (ROR 1.62; 95% CI 1.41-1.86) compared to viral vector-based vaccines. mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an increased reporting frequency of alterations of glucose homeostasis compared to viral-vector COVID-19 vaccines. Clinicians should be aware of these events to better manage glycemic perturbations. Larger nationwide studies are warranted to verify these findings