Global warming and malaria: knowing the horse before hitching the cart

Speculations on the potential impact of climate change on human health frequently focus on malaria. Predictions are common that in the coming decades, tens – even hundreds – of millions more cases will occur in regions where the disease is already present, and that transmission will extend to higher latitudes and altitudes. Such predictions, sometimes supported by simple models, are persuasive because they are intuitive, but they sidestep factors that are key to the transmission and epidemiology of the disease: the ecology and behaviour of both humans and vectors, and the immunity of the human population. A holistic view of the natural history of the disease, in the context of these factors and in the precise setting where it is transmitted, is the only valid starting point for assessing the likely significance of future changes in climate

A physiological time analysis of the duration of the gonotrophic cycle of Anopheles pseudopunctipennis and its implications for malaria transmission in Bolivia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The length of the gonotrophic cycle varies the vectorial capacity of a mosquito vector and therefore its exact estimation is important in epidemiological modelling. Because the gonotrophic cycle length depends on temperature, its estimation can be satisfactorily computed by means of physiological time analysis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A model of physiological time was developed and calibrated for <it>Anopheles pseudopunctipennis</it>, one of the main malaria vectors in South America, using data from laboratory temperature controlled experiments. The model was validated under varying temperatures and could predict the time elapsed from blood engorgement to oviposition according to the temperature.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In laboratory experiments, a batch of <it>An. pseudopunctipennis </it>fed at the same time may lay eggs during several consecutive nights (2–3 at high temperature and > 10 at low temperature). The model took into account such pattern and was used to predict the range of the gonotrophic cycle duration of <it>An. pseudopunctipennis </it>in four characteristic sites of Bolivia. It showed that the predicted cycle duration for <it>An. pseudopunctipennis </it>exhibited a seasonal pattern, with higher variances where climatic conditions were less stable. Predicted mean values of the (minimum) duration ranged from 3.3 days up to > 10 days, depending on the season and the geographical location. The analysis of ovaries development stages of field collected biting mosquitoes indicated that the phase 1 of Beklemishev might be of significant duration for <it>An. pseudopunctipennis</it>. The gonotrophic cycle length of <it>An. pseudopunctipennis </it>correlates with malaria transmission patterns observed in Bolivia which depend on locations and seasons.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A new presentation of cycle length results taking into account the number of ovipositing nights and the proportion of mosquitoes laying eggs is suggested. The present approach using physiological time analysis might serve as an outline to other similar studies and allows the inclusion of temperature effects on the gonotrophic cycle in transmission models. However, to better explore the effects of temperature on malaria transmission, the others parameters of the vectorial capacity should be included in the analysis and modelled accordingly.</p

Early stroke-related deep venous thrombosis: risk factors and influence on outcome

Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) is a serious complication of various medical conditions including acute stroke. Our aim was to identify the occurrence of early stroke-related DVT, risk factors for its development and the influence on outcome. The study involved consecutive patients admitted to our center due to acute ischaemic (n = 278) or haemorrhagic (n = 12) stroke during a 16-month period. We collected data on their pre-stroke health status, neurological deficit on admission and baseline serum CRP and fibrinogen level. Ultrasonographic imaging was performed at the 3rd (IQR: 2–4) and 9th (IQR: 8–9) day after stroke. Patients thrombosis occurring between the first and second examination comprised the newly developed early stroke-related DVT group. We found DVT in 8.0% (24/299) of patients at initial evaluation. Newly developed DVT was present in 3.0% (9/299) of patients, and was predominantly distal (7 of 9 cases). It was associated with elevated serum CRP level (OR 8.75; 95%CI: 1.61–47.6), which was verified in a model adjusted for stroke severity and pre-stroke dependency (3–5 pts. in mRS). In a multivariate model, newly developed DVT significantly increased the risk of 3-month mortality (OR 12.4; 95%CI: 1.72–89.4), without affecting the combined risk of dependency and death (OR 2.57; 95%CI: 0.39–17.0). Early stroke-related DVT is an infrequent complication. However, it may be an independent risk factor for 3-month mortality. Increased serum CRP level combined with normal fibrinogen level seems predictive for development of DVT. It may be reasonable to provide those patients with additional DVT prophylaxis

Conditioning Individual Mosquitoes to an Odor: Sex, Source, and Time

Olfactory conditioning of mosquitoes may have important implications for vector-pathogen-host dynamics. If mosquitoes learn about specific host attributes associated with pathogen infection, it may help to explain the heterogeneity of biting and disease patterns observed in the field. Sugar-feeding is a requirement for survival in both male and female mosquitoes. It provides a starting point for learning research in mosquitoes that avoids the confounding factors associated with the observer being a potential blood-host and has the capability to address certain areas of close-range mosquito learning behavior that have not previously been described. This study was designed to investigate the ability of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say to associate odor with a sugar-meal with emphasis on important experimental considerations of mosquito age (1.2 d old and 3–5 d old), sex (male and female), source (laboratory and wild), and the time between conditioning and testing (<5 min, 1 hr, 2.5 hr, 5 hr, 10 hr, and 24 hr). Mosquitoes were individually conditioned to an odor across these different experimental conditions. Details of the conditioning protocol are presented as well as the use of binary logistic regression to analyze the complex dataset generated from this experimental design. The results suggest that each of the experimental factors may be important in different ways. Both the source of the mosquitoes and sex of the mosquitoes had significant effects on conditioned responses. The largest effect on conditioning was observed in the lack of positive response following conditioning for females aged 3–5 d derived from a long established colony. Overall, this study provides a method for conditioning experiments involving individual mosquitoes at close range and provides for future discussion of the relevance and broader questions that can be asked of olfactory conditioning in mosquitoes

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Consequences of the Expanding Global Distribution of Aedes albopictus for Dengue Virus Transmission

The dramatic global expansion of Aedes albopictus in the last three decades has increased public health concern because it is a potential vector of numerous arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), including the most prevalent arboviral pathogen of humans, dengue virus (DENV). Ae. aegypti is considered the primary DENV vector and has repeatedly been incriminated as a driving force in dengue's worldwide emergence. What remains unresolved is the extent to which Ae. albopictus contributes to DENV transmission and whether an improved understanding of its vector status would enhance dengue surveillance and prevention. To assess the relative public health importance of Ae. albopictus for dengue, we carried out two complementary analyses. We reviewed its role in past dengue epidemics and compared its DENV vector competence with that of Ae. aegypti. Observations from “natural experiments” indicate that, despite seemingly favorable conditions, places where Ae. albopictus predominates over Ae. aegypti have never experienced a typical explosive dengue epidemic with severe cases of the disease. Results from a meta-analysis of experimental laboratory studies reveal that although Ae. albopictus is overall more susceptible to DENV midgut infection, rates of virus dissemination from the midgut to other tissues are significantly lower in Ae. albopictus than in Ae. aegypti. For both indices of vector competence, a few generations of mosquito colonization appear to result in a relative increase of Ae. albopictus susceptibility, which may have been a confounding factor in the literature. Our results lead to the conclusion that Ae. albopictus plays a relatively minor role compared to Ae. aegypti in DENV transmission, at least in part due to differences in host preferences and reduced vector competence. Recent examples of rapid arboviral adaptation to alternative mosquito vectors, however, call for cautious extrapolation of our conclusion. Vector status is a dynamic process that in the future could change in epidemiologically important ways

Cloning and endogenous expression of a Eucalyptus grandis UDP-glucose dehydrogenase cDNA

UDP-glucose dehydrogenase (UGDH) catalyzes the oxidation of UDP-glucose (UDP-Glc) to UDP-glucuronate (UDP-GlcA), a key sugar nucleotide involved in the biosynthesis of plant cell wall polysaccharides. A full-length cDNA fragment coding for UGDH was cloned from the cambial region of 6-month-old E. grandis saplings by RT-PCR. The 1443-bp-ORF encodes a protein of 480 amino acids with a predicted molecular weight of 53 kDa. The recombinant protein expressed in Escherichia coli catalyzed the conversion of UDP-Glc to UDP-GlcA, confirming that the cloned cDNA encodes UGDH. The deduced amino acid sequence of the cDNA showed a high degree of identity with UGDH from several plant species. The Southern blot assay indicated that more than one copy of UGDH is present in Eucalyptus. These results were also confirmed by the proteomic analysis of the cambial region of 3- and 22-year-old E. grandis trees by 2-DE and LC-MS/MS, showing that at least two isoforms are present. The cloned gene is mainly expressed in roots, stem and bark of 6-month-old saplings, with a lower expression in leaves. High expression levels were also observed in the cambial region of 3- and 22-year-old trees. The results described in this paper provide a further view of the hemicellulose biosynthesis during wood formation in E. grandis

piggybac- and PhiC31-Mediated Genetic Transformation of the Asian Tiger Mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse)

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive mosquito and has spread from South East Asia to Europe, the United States and northern areas of Asia in the past 30 years. Aedes mosquitoes transmit a range of viral diseases, including dengue and chikungunya. Aedes albopictus is generally considered to be somewhat less of a concern in this regard than Aedes aegypti. However a recent mutation in the chikungunya virus dramatically increased its transmission by Aedes albopictus, causing an important outbreak in the Indian Ocean in 2006 that eventually reached Italy in 2007. This highlights the potential importance of this mosquito, which can thrive much further from the Equator than can Aedes aegypti. This paper describes the first genetic engineering of the Asian tiger mosquito. This is an essential step towards the development of genetics-based control methods against this mosquito, and also an invaluable tool for basic research. We describe both transposon-based and site-specific integration methods

Sensitivity of Anopheles gambiae population dynamics to meteo-hydrological variability: a mechanistic approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mechanistic models play an important role in many biological disciplines, and they can effectively contribute to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of mosquito populations, in the light of the increasing knowledge of the crucial driving role on vector dynamics played by meteo-climatic features as well as other physical-biological characteristics of the landscape.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In malaria eco-epidemiology landscape components (atmosphere, water bodies, land use) interact with the epidemiological system (interacting populations of vector, human, and parasite). In the background of the eco-epidemiological approach, a mosquito population model is here proposed to evaluate the sensitivity of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. population to some peculiar thermal-pluviometric scenarios. The scenarios are obtained perturbing meteorological time series data referred to four Kenyan sites (Nairobi, Nyabondo, Kibwesi, and Malindi) representing four different eco-epidemiological settings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Simulations highlight a strong dependence of mosquito population abundance on temperature variation with well-defined site-specific patterns. The upper extreme of thermal perturbation interval (+ 3°C) gives rise to an increase in adult population abundance at Nairobi (+111%) and Nyabondo (+61%), and a decrease at Kibwezi (-2%) and Malindi (-36%). At the lower extreme perturbation (-3°C) is observed a reduction in both immature and adult mosquito population in three sites (Nairobi -74%, Nyabondo -66%, Kibwezi -39%), and an increase in Malindi (+11%). A coherent non-linear pattern of population variation emerges. The maximum rate of variation is +30% population abundance for +1°C of temperature change, but also almost null and negative values are obtained. Mosquitoes are less sensitive to rainfall and both adults and immature populations display a positive quasi-linear response pattern to rainfall variation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The non-linear temperature-dependent response is in agreement with the non-linear patterns of temperature-response of the basic bio-demographic processes. This non-linearity makes the hypothesized biological amplification of temperature effects valid only for a limited range of temperatures. As a consequence, no simple extrapolations can be done linking temperature rise with increase in mosquito distribution and abundance, and projections of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. populations should be produced only in the light of the local meteo-climatic features as well as other physical and biological characteristics of the landscape.</p