Bayesian estimation of genetic parameters for multivariate threshold and continuous phenotypes and molecular genetic data in simulated horse populations using Gibbs sampling

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Requirements for successful implementation of multivariate animal threshold models including phenotypic and genotypic information are not known yet. Here simulated horse data were used to investigate the properties of multivariate estimators of genetic parameters for categorical, continuous and molecular genetic data in the context of important radiological health traits using mixed linear-threshold animal models via Gibbs sampling. The simulated pedigree comprised 7 generations and 40000 animals per generation. Additive genetic values, residuals and fixed effects for one continuous trait and liabilities of four binary traits were simulated, resembling situations encountered in the Warmblood horse. Quantitative trait locus (QTL) effects and genetic marker information were simulated for one of the liabilities. Different scenarios with respect to recombination rate between genetic markers and QTL and polymorphism information content of genetic markers were studied. For each scenario ten replicates were sampled from the simulated population, and within each replicate six different datasets differing in number and distribution of animals with trait records and availability of genetic marker information were generated. (Co)Variance components were estimated using a Bayesian mixed linear-threshold animal model via Gibbs sampling. Residual variances were fixed to zero and a proper prior was used for the genetic covariance matrix.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Effective sample sizes (ESS) and biases of genetic parameters differed significantly between datasets. Bias of heritability estimates was -6% to +6% for the continuous trait, -6% to +10% for the binary traits of moderate heritability, and -21% to +25% for the binary traits of low heritability. Additive genetic correlations were mostly underestimated between the continuous trait and binary traits of low heritability, under- or overestimated between the continuous trait and binary traits of moderate heritability, and overestimated between two binary traits. Use of trait information on two subsequent generations of animals increased ESS and reduced bias of parameter estimates more than mere increase of the number of informative animals from one generation. Consideration of genotype information as a fixed effect in the model resulted in overestimation of polygenic heritability of the QTL trait, but increased accuracy of estimated additive genetic correlations of the QTL trait.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Combined use of phenotype and genotype information on parents and offspring will help to identify agonistic and antagonistic genetic correlations between traits of interests, facilitating design of effective multiple trait selection schemes.</p

Incidence of osteochondrosis (dissecans) in Dutch warmblood horses presented for pre-purchase examination

Data are lacking in the literature regarding the incidence of osteochondrosis (dissecans) [OC(D)] in relation to lameness evaluation in Dutch Warmblood horses. The objective of this retrospective study was to assess the incidence of radiological abnormalities consistent with osteochondrosis or osteochondrosis dissecans in 1,231 sound Dutch Warmblood (DW) horses presented for pre-purchase examination. Standardised (Dutch) pre-purchase examination protocols were evaluated. The pre-purchase examination included a clinical, lameness and radiological evaluation, performed at a private equine clinic in the Netherlands. Radiographical examination included views of the distal (DIP) and proximal (PIP) interphalangeal, metacarpo- and metatarsophalangeal (MCP/MTP), tarsocrural (TC) and femoropatellar (FP) joints. Radiographical evidence of OC(D) was found in 44.3% of clinically sound DW horses. In this study, 443 horses (36%, n = 1,231) had evidence of OCD and 102 horses (8.3%, n = 1,231) had evidence of OC on pre-purchase radiographs. The results also indicated that the TC joints were significantly more likely to be affected. A considerable number of horses did not demonstrate any lameness, although radiographs revealed OC(D)

Introducing EMMIE: An evidence rating scale to encourage mixed-method crime prevention synthesis reviews

Objectives This short report describes the need for, and the development of, a coding system to distil the quality and coverage of systematic reviews of the evidence relating to crime prevention interventions. The starting point for the coding system concerns the evidence needs of policymakers and practitioners. Methods The coding scheme (EMMIE) proposed builds on previous scales that have been developed to assess the probity, coverage and utility of evidence both in health and criminal justice. It also draws on the principles of realist synthesis and review. Results The proposed EMMIE scale identifies five dimensions to which systematic reviews intended to inform crime prevention should speak. These are the Effect of intervention, the identification of the causal Mechanism(s) through which interventions are intended to work, the factors that Moderate their impact, the articulation of practical Implementation issues, and the Economic costs of intervention

Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area

Expectations and uncertainty play a key role in economic behavior. This paper deals with both, expectations and uncertainty derived from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. Given the strong turbulences that the euro area macroeconomic indicators observe since 2007, the aim of the paper is to check whether there is any room for improvement of the consensus forecast accuracy for GDP growth and inflation when accounting for uncertainty. We propose a new measure of uncertainty, alternative to the ad hoc equal weights commonly used, based on principal components. We test the role of uncertainty in forecasting macroeconomic performance in the euro area between 2005 and 2015. We also check the role of surprises in the considered forecasting sampleMinisterio de Economía y CompetitividadFinancial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project numbers ECO2015-70331-C2-1-R, ECO2015-66593-P and ECO2014-56676C2-2-P and Universidad de Alcalá is acknowledged

Heritability and Phenotypic Variation of Canine Hip Dysplasia Radiographic Traits in a Cohort of Australian German Shepherd Dogs

Canine Hip Dysplasia (CHD) is a common, painful and debilitating orthopaedic disorder of dogs with a partly genetic, multifactorial aetiology. Worldwide, potential breeding dogs are evaluated for CHD using radiographically based screening schemes such as the nine ordinally-scored British Veterinary Association Hip Traits (BVAHTs). The effectiveness of selective breeding based on screening results requires that a significant proportion of the phenotypic variation is caused by the presence of favourable alleles segregating in the population. This proportion, heritability, was measured in a cohort of 13,124 Australian German Shepherd Dogs born between 1976 and 2005, displaying phenotypic variation for BVAHTs, using ordinal, linear and binary mixed models fitted by a Restricted Maximum Likelihood method. Heritability estimates for the nine BVAHTs ranged from 0.14–0.24 (ordinal models), 0.14–0.25 (linear models) and 0.12–0.40 (binary models). Heritability for the summed BVAHT phenotype was 0.30±0.02. The presence of heritable variation demonstrates that selection based on BVAHTs has the potential to improve BVAHT scores in the population. Assuming a genetic correlation between BVAHT scores and CHD-related pain and dysfunction, the welfare of Australian German Shepherds can be improved by continuing to consider BVAHT scores in the selection of breeding dogs, but that as heritability values are only moderate in magnitude the accuracy, and effectiveness, of selection could be improved by the use of Estimated Breeding Values in preference to solely phenotype based selection of breeding animals

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Recruitment Variability in North Atlantic Cod and Match-Mismatch Dynamics

Background Fisheries exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate are important drivers of variability in recruitment success. Understanding variability in recruitment can reveal mechanisms behind widespread decline in the abundance of key species in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. For fish populations, the match-mismatch theory hypothesizes that successful recruitment is a function of the timing and duration of larval fish abundance and prey availability. However, the underlying mechanisms of match-mismatch dynamics and the factors driving spatial differences between high and low recruitment remain poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings We used empirical observations of larval fish abundance, a mechanistic individual-based model, and a reanalysis of ocean temperature data from 1960 to 2002 to estimate the survival of larval cod (Gadus morhua). From the model, we quantified how survival rates changed during the warmest and coldest years at four important cod spawning sites in the North Atlantic. The modeled difference in survival probability was not large for any given month between cold or warm years. However, the cumulative effect of higher growth rates and survival through the entire spawning season in warm years was substantial with 308%, 385%, 154%, and 175% increases in survival for Georges Bank, Iceland, North Sea, and Lofoten cod stocks, respectively. We also found that the importance of match-mismatch dynamics generally increased with latitude. Conclusions/Significance Our analyses indicate that a key factor for enhancing survival is the duration of the overlap between larval and prey abundance and not the actual timing of the peak abundance. During warm years, the duration of the overlap between larval fish and their prey is prolonged due to an early onset of the spring bloom. This prolonged season enhances cumulative growth and survival, leading to a greater number of large individuals with enhanced potential for survival to recruitment

Asthma in an Urban Population in Portugal: A prevalence study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The prevalence and incidence of asthma are believed to be increasing but research on the true incidence, prevalence and mortality from asthma has met methodological obstacles since it has been difficult to define and diagnose asthma in epidemiological terms. New and widely accepted diagnostic criteria for asthma present opportunities for progress in this field. Studies conducted in Portugal have estimated the disease prevalence between 3% and 15%. Available epidemiological data present a significant variability due to methodological obstacles.</p> <p>Aim</p> <p>To estimate the true prevalence of asthma by gender and age groups in the population of the area covered by one urban Health Centre in Portugal.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>An observational study was conducted between February and July 2009 at the Horizonte Family Health Unit in Matosinhos, Portugal. A random sample of 590 patients, stratified by age and gender was obtained from the practice database of registered patients. Data was collected using a patient questionnaire based on respiratory symptoms and the physician's best knowledge of the patient's asthma status. The prevalence of asthma was calculated by age and gender.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data were obtained from 576 patients (97.6% response rate). The mean age for patients with asthma was 27.0 years (95% CI: 20.95 to 33.16). This was lower than the mean age for non-asthmatics but the difference was not statistically significant. Asthma was diagnosed in 59 persons giving a prevalence of 10.24% (95% CI: 8.16 to 12.32). There was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of asthma by gender.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The prevalence of asthma found in the present study was higher than that found in some studies, though lower than that found in other studies. Further studies in other regions of Portugal are required to confirm these findings.</p