A Model for Customer Churn Management of an Internet Service Provider

Customer churning is one of the most important issues facing Internet Service Providers in a competitive and rapidly saturating market. Due to the high costs associated with attracting new customers, ISPs have turned to a customer retention approach that explicitly seeks to reduce churn. This study has been surveyed the churning of internet service customers in one of the largest telecommunications companies in Iran. In order to predict the churn, customer data has been collected during six months, and their churning behavior has been investigated over a period of one year after. In addition to churn prediction, the most important factors affecting churn have been identified. In the preprocessing step, the "Random Under-Sampling" method is used to balance the data set and the "minimum-Redundancy, Maximum-Relevance" method is used to feature selection. Then, the "Random Forest", "Support Vector Machine" and "K-Nearest Neighbors" algorithms were applied to classify churning and non-churning customers, and the evaluation criteria show the superiority of the random forest algorithm. The final model, which was obtained from a combination of balancing, feature selection and classification methods, called the RUS-mRMR-RF model, is considered as an efficient model in customer churn prediction and identifying the most important factors affecting churn. The results of this study provide valuable insights to the company to develop customer retention strategies

Psychometric evaluation of Persian version of Diabetes Acceptance Scale (DAS)

Background: Acceptance of diabetes is a psychological adaptation to the potential limitations of the disease. Poor acceptance of diabetes impairs efective self-management of diabetes, leading to worsening metabolic control. This study aimed at determining the psychometric properties of the Persian version of the Diabetes Acceptance Scale. Methods: This cross-sectional methodological study was performed on diabetic patients in Iran in 2021. The ques tionnaire consisted of two parts: demographic characteristics and Diabetes Acceptance Scale. The questionnaire was translated into Persian through the forward–backward translation method. The face validity and content validity were performed qualitatively and quantitatively. Exploratory (n=200) and confrmatory (n=200) factor analysis were performed to evaluate the validity of the structure. Internal consistency and temporal stability were estimated to determine reliability. Results: Exploratory factor analysis on the polychoric correlation matrix obtained three factors: Rational dealing, Resentment and Avoidance, which explained 68.8% of the total DAS variance. Confrmatory factor analysis showed that the 3-fractor model had a good ft to a second independent data set. Finally, Ordinal Cronbach’s alpha coefcient was 0.96, 0.94 and 0.93, respectively for the Rational dealing, Resentment, and Avoidance factor. Also, using intraclass correlation coefcient, the stability of the instrument was 0.97. Conclusion: Based on the fndings of this study, the Persian version of DAS has sufcient validity and reliability to measure the admission of Iranian diabetic patientsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Dorsal hippocampal CA1 NMDA receptors mediate the interactive effects of quetiapine and lithium on memory retention in male rats

Objective(s): Lithium and quetiapine are administered simultaneously as a treatment for bipolar disorder. The concurrent use of these two drugs has been observed to affect the neurobiological mechanisms underlying learning and memory. To clarify the precise mechanisms involved, we evaluated the possible role of the dorsal hippocampal CA1 NMDA receptors in the interactive effects of lithium and quetiapine in memory consolidation. Materials and Methods: The dorsal hippocampal CA1 regions of adult male Wistar rats were bilaterally cannulated, and a single-trial step-through inhibitory avoidance apparatus was used to assess memory consolidation. Results: Post-training administration of certain doses of lithium (20, 30, and 40 mg/kg, IP) diminished memory consolidation. Post-training administration of higher doses of quetiapine (5, 10, and 20 mg/kg, IP) augmented memory consolidation. Post-training administration of certain doses of quetiapine (2.5, 5, 10, and 20 mg/kg) dose-dependently restored lithium-induced memory impairment. Post-training microinjection of ineffective doses of the NMDA (10-5 and 10-4 µg/rat, intra-CA1) plus an ineffective dose of quetiapine (2.5 mg/kg) restored the lithium-induced memory impairment. Post-training microinjection of ineffective doses of the noncompetitive NMDA receptor antagonist, MK-801 (0.0625 and 0.0125 μg/rat, intra-CA1), diminished the quetiapine-induced (10 mg/kg) memory improvement in lithium-induced memory impairment.Conclusion: These findings suggest a functional interaction between lithium and quetiapine through hippocampal CA1 NMDA receptor mechanisms in memory consolidation

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18 : a geospatial modelling study

Background More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.Methods We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km x 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2.1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.Findings Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205000 (95% uncertainty interval 147000-257000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.Interpretation Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Fast and Efficient Four‑class Motor Imagery Electroencephalography Signal Analysis Using Common Spatial Pattern– Ridge Regression Algorithm for the Purpose of Brain– Computer Interface

Brain–computer interfaces enable users to control devices with electroencephalographic (EEG) activity from the scalp or with single-neuron activity from within the brain. One of the most challenging issues in this regard is the balance between the accuracy of brain signals from patients and the speed of interpreting them into machine language. The main objective of this paper is to analyze different approaches to achieve the balance more quickly and in a better way. To reduce the ocular artifacts, the symmetric prewhitening independent component analysis (ICA) algorithm has been evaluated, which has the lowest runtime and lowest signal-to-interference (SIR) index, without destroying the original signal. After quick elimination of all undesirable signals, two successful feature extractors – the log-band power algorithm and common spatial patterns (CSPs) – are used to extract features. The emphasis is on identifying discriminative properties of the feature sets representing EEG trials recorded during the imagination of the tongue, feet, and left–right-hand movement. Finally, three well-known classifiers are evaluated, where the ridge regression classifier and CSPs as feature extractor have the highest accuracy classification rate about 83.06% with a standard deviation of 1.22%, counterposing the recent studies