Assessment of animal African trypanosomiasis (AAT) vulnerability in cattle-owning communities of sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Animal African trypanosomiasis (AAT) is one of the biggest constraints to livestock production and a threat to food security in sub-Saharan Africa. In order to optimise the allocation of resources for AAT control, decision makers need to target geographic areas where control programmes are most likely to be successful and sustainable and select control methods that will maximise the benefits obtained from resources invested. Methods: The overall approach to classifying cattle-owning communities in terms of AAT vulnerability was based on the selection of key variables collected through field surveys in five sub-Saharan Africa countries followed by a formal Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) to identify factors explaining the variations between areas. To categorise the communities in terms of AAT vulnerability profiles, Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) was performed. Results: Three clusters of community vulnerability profiles were identified based on farmers’ beliefs with respect to trypanosomiasis control within the five countries studied. Cluster 1 communities, mainly identified in Cameroon, reported constant AAT burden, had large trypanosensitive (average herd size = 57) communal grazing cattle herds. Livestock (cattle and small ruminants) were reportedly the primary source of income in the majority of these cattle-owning households (87.0 %). Cluster 2 communities identified mainly in Burkina Faso and Zambia, with some Ethiopian communities had moderate herd sizes (average = 16) and some trypanotolerant breeds (31.7 %) practicing communal grazing. In these communities there were some concerns regarding the development of trypanocide resistance. Crops were the primary income source while communities in this cluster incurred some financial losses due to diminished draft power. The third cluster contained mainly Ugandan and Ethiopian communities which were mixed farmers with smaller herd sizes (average = 8). The costs spent diagnosing and treating AAT were moderate here. Conclusions: Understanding how cattle-owners are affected by AAT and their efforts to manage the disease is critical to the design of suitable locally-adapted control programmes. It is expected that the results could inform priority setting and the development of tailored recommendations for AAT control strategies

The causes, treatment, and outcome of acute heart failure in 1006 Africans From 9 countries

Background: Acute heart failure (AHF) in sub-Saharan Africa has not been well characterized. Therefore,wesought to describe the characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of patients admitted with AHF in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: The Sub-Saharan Africa Survey of Heart Failure (THESUS–HF) was a prospective, multicenter, observational survey of patients with AHF admitted to 12 university hospitals in 9 countries. Among patients presenting with AHF, we determined the causes, treatment, and outcomes during 6 months of follow-up. Results: From July 1, 2007, to June 30, 2010, we enrolled 1006 patients presenting with AHF. Mean (SD) age was 52.3 (18.3) years, 511 (50.8%) were women, and the predominant race was black African (984 of 999 [98.5%]). Mean (SD) left ventricular ejection fraction was 39.5% (16.5%)... Conclusions: In African patients, AHF has a predominantly nonischemic cause, most commonly hypertension. The condition occurs in middle-aged adults, equally in men and women, and is associated with high mortality. The outcome is similar to that observed in non- African AHF registries, suggesting that AHF has a dire prognosis globally, regardless of the cause

Gender differences in clinical characteristics and outcome of acute heart failure in sub-Saharan Africa: results of the THESUS-HF study

Background: The impact of gender on the clinical characteristics, risk factors, co-morbidities, etiology, treatment and outcome of acute heart failure in sub-Saharan Africa has not been described before. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sex diffe rences in acute heart failure in sub-Saharan Africa using the data from The sub-Saharan Africa Survey of Heart Failure (THESUS-HF). Methods and results: 1,006 subjects were recruited into this prospective multicenter, international observational heart failure survey. The mean age of total population was 52.4 years (54.0 years for men and 50.7 years for women). The men were significantly older (p = 0.0045). Men also presented in poorer NYHA functional class (III and IV), p = 0.0364). Cigarette smoking and high blood pressure were significantly commoner in men (17.3 vs. 2.6 % and 60.0 vs. 51.0 % respectively). On the other hand, atrial fibrillation and valvular heart disease were significantly more frequent in women. The mean hemoglobin concentration was lower in women compared to men (11.7 vs. 12.6 g/dl, p ≤ 0.0001), while the blood urea and creatinine levels were higher in men (p \u3c 0.0001). LV systolic dysfunctional was also seen more in men. Men also had higher E/A ratio indicating higher LV filling pressure. Outcomes were similar in both sexes. Conclusions: Although the outcome of patients admitted for AHF in sub-Saharan regions is similar in men and women, some gender differences are apparent suggesting that in men more emphasis should be put on modifiable life risk factors, while in women prevention of rheumatic heart diseases and improved nutrition should be addressed vigorously

The effect of maternal common mental disorders on infant undernutrition in Butajira, Ethiopia: The P-MaMiE study

BACKGROUND: Although maternal common mental disorder (CMD) appears to be a risk factor for infant undernutrition in South Asian countries, the position in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is unclear METHODS: A population-based cohort of 1065 women, in the third trimester of pregnancy, was identified from the demographic surveillance site (DSS) in Butajira, to investigate the effect of maternal CMD on infant undernutrition in a predominantly rural Ethiopian population. Participants were interviewed at recruitment and at two months post-partum. Maternal CMD was measured using the locally validated Self-Reported Questionnaire (score of > or = six indicating high levels of CMD). Infant anthropometry was recorded at six and twelve months of age. RESULT: The prevalence of CMD was 12% during pregnancy and 5% at the two month postnatal time-point. In bivariate analysis antenatal CMD which had resolved after delivery predicted underweight at twelve months (OR = 1.71; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.50). There were no other statistically significant differences in the prevalence of underweight or stunted infants in mothers with high levels of CMD compared to those with low levels. The associations between CMD and infant nutritional status were not significant after adjusting for pre-specified potential confounders. CONCLUSION: Our negative finding adds to the inconsistent picture emerging from SSA. The association between CMD and infant undernutrition might be modified by study methodology as well as degree of shared parenting among family members, making it difficult to extrapolate across low- and middle-income countries

Trends in obesity and diabetes across Africa from 1980 to 2014: an analysis of pooled population-based studies

Background: The 2016 Dar Es Salaam Call to Action on Diabetes and Other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) advocates national multi-sectoral NCD strategies and action plans based on available data and information from countries of sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. We estimated trends from 1980 to 2014 in age-standardized mean body mass index (BMI) and diabetes prevalence in these countries, in order to assess the co-progression and assist policy formulation. Methods: We pooled data from African and worldwide population-based studies which measured height, weight and biomarkers to assess diabetes status in adults aged ≥ 18 years. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate trends by sex for 200 countries and territories including 53 countries across five African regions (central, eastern, northern, southern and western), in mean BMI and diabetes prevalence (defined as either fasting plasma glucose of ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, history of diabetes diagnosis, or use of insulin or oral glucose control agents). Results: African data came from 245 population-based surveys (1.2 million participants) for BMI and 76 surveys (182 000 participants) for diabetes prevalence estimates. Countries with the highest number of data sources for BMI were South Africa (n = 17), Nigeria (n = 15) and Egypt (n = 13); and for diabetes estimates, Tanzania (n = 8), Tunisia (n = 7), and Cameroon, Egypt and South Africa (all n = 6). The age-standardized mean BMI increased from 21.0 kg/m2 (95% credible interval: 20.3–21.7) to 23.0 kg/m2 (22.7–23.3) in men, and from 21.9 kg/m2 (21.3–22.5) to 24.9 kg/m2 (24.6–25.1) in women. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes increased from 3.4% (1.5–6.3) to 8.5% (6.5–10.8) in men, and from 4.1% (2.0–7.5) to 8.9% (6.9–11.2) in women. Estimates in northern and southern regions were mostly higher than the global average; those in central, eastern and western regions were lower than global averages. A positive association (correlation coefficient ≃ 0.9) was observed between mean BMI and diabetes prevalence in both sexes in 1980 and 2014. Conclusions: These estimates, based on limited data sources, confirm the rapidly increasing burden of diabetes in Africa. This rise is being driven, at least in part, by increasing adiposity, with regional variations in observed trends. African countries’ efforts to prevent and control diabetes and obesity should integrate the setting up of reliable monitoring systems, consistent with the World Health Organization’s Global Monitoring System Framework

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: A comparative risk assessment

Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks