Evolution and progressive geomorphic manifestation of surface faulting: A comparison of the Wairau and Awatere faults, South Island, New Zealand

Field mapping and lidar analysis of surface faulting patterns expressed in flights of geologically similar fluvial terraces at the well-known Branch River and Saxton River sites along the Wairau (Alpine) and Awatere strike-slip faults, South Island, New Zealand, reveal that fault-related deformation patterns expressed in the topography at these sites are markedly less structurally complex along the higher-displacement (hundreds of kilometers), structurally mature Wairau fault than along the Awatere fault (∼13–20 km total slip). These differences, which are generally representative of the surface traces of these faults, provide direct evidence that surface faulting becomes structurally simpler with increasing cumulative fault offset. We also examine the degree to which off-fault deformation (OFD) is expressed in the landscape at the Saxton River site along the less structurally mature Awatere fault. Significantly greater amounts of OFD are discernible as a wide damage zone (∼460 m fault-perpendicular width) in older (ca. 15 ka), more-displaced (64–74 m) fluvial terraces than in younger (ca. 1–7 ka), less-displaced (<55 m) terraces; no OFD is discernible in the lidar data on the least-displaced (<35 m) terraces. From this, we infer that OFD becomes progressively more geomorphically apparent with accumulating displacement. These observations imply that (1) the processes that accommodate OFD are active during each earthquake, but may not be evident in deposits that have experienced relatively small displacements; (2) structures accommodating OFD will become progressively geomorphically clearer with increasing displacement; (3) geomorphic measurements of overall fault zone width taken in deposits that have experienced small displacements will be underestimates; and (4) fault slip rates based on geomorphic surface offsets will be underestimates for immature faults if based solely on measurements along the high-strain fault core

Optimal allocation of nature-based solutions to achieve climate mitigation and adaptation goals

Nature-based solutions (NbS) can prevent further climate change and increase local communities' capacity to adapt to the current impacts of climate change. However, the benefits obtained from implementing NbS are not distributed equally across people. Thus, it is key to further understand how people are impacted when implementing NbS. We developed a multi-objective prioritization approach to identify changes in (i) the biophysical provision of ecosystem services, (ii) optimal allocation of NbS and (iii) monetary benefits when targeting climate mitigation versus climate adaptation goals. We used the increase in metric tons of carbon storage as representative of climate mitigation and the decrease in on-site and downstream tons of sediment per year as representative of climate adaptation. Planning strategies that target climate mitigation or climate adaptation goals separately represent a loss of between 30% and 60% of the maximum possible carbon sequestration or sediment retention benefits. Conversely, targeting climate mitigation and climate adaptation goals at the same time captured more than 90% of the maximum possible benefits for all objectives. Priority NbS in the mitigation planning strategy included soil and water conservation and forest rehabilitation, while priority NbS in the adaptation planning strategy included grassland rehabilitation and hill terrace improvement. Targeting mitigation and adaptation goals at the same time captures 35M USD (89% of the maximum attainable) in value of carbon restored and retained, and 2M USD (100% of the maximum attainable) of avoided maintenance costs to the KGA hydropower plant. Conversely, failing to incorporate adaptation goals when developing climate plans only captures 1M of avoided maintenance costs to the KGA hydropower plant. Our approach can be replicated in other locations to promote cost-effective investments in NbS able to secure both global and local benefits to people. This can improve the outcomes of international climate change financial schemes like the Green Climate Fund and the UN-REDD+ program. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.Jaramar Villarreal-Rosas, Jonathan R. Rhodes, Laura J. Sonter, Hugh P. Possingham, Adrian L. Vog

Trade-offs between efficiency, equality and equity in restoration for flood protection

Conservation decision-makers and practitioners increasingly strive for efficient and equitable outcomes for people and nature. However, environmental management programs commonly benefit some groups of people more than others, and very little is known about how efforts to promote equality (i.e. even distributions) and equity (i.e. proportional distributions) trade-off against efficiency (i.e. total net outcome per dollar spent). Based on a case study in the Brigalow Belt Bioregion, Australia, we quantified trade-offs between equality, equity, and efficiency in planning for flood protection. We considered optimal restoration strategies that allocate a fixed budget (a) evenly among beneficiary sectors (i.e. seeking equality among urban residents, rural communities, and the food sector), (b) evenly among local government areas (LGAs) within the Brigalow Belt (i.e. seeking spatial equality), and (c) preferentially to areas of highest socioeconomic disadvantage (i.e. seeking equity). We assessed equality using the Gini coefficient, and equity using an index of socioeconomic disadvantage. At an AUD10M budget, evenly distributing the budget among beneficiary sectors was 80% less efficient than ignoring beneficiary groups, and did not improve equality in the distribution of flood protection among beneficiary sectors. Evenly distributing the budget among LGAs ensured restoration in four areas that were otherwise ignored, with a modest reduction in efficiency (12%–25%). Directing flood protection to areas of highest socioeconomic disadvantage did not result in additional reductions in efficiency, and captured areas of high disadvantage for the rural and urban sectors that were missed otherwise. We show here that different ways of targeting equity and equality lead to quite different trade-offs with efficiency. Our approach can be used to guide transparent negotiations between beneficiaries and other stakeholders involved in a planning process.Jaramar Villarreal-Rosas, Adrian L Vogl, Laura J Sonter, Hugh P Possingham, and Jonathan R Rhode

Assessing the activity of faults in continental interiors: Palaeoseismic insights from SE Kazakhstan

The presence of fault scarps is a first-order criterion for identifying active faults. Yet the preservation of these features depends on the recurrence interval between surface rupturing events, combined with the rates of erosional and depositional processes that act on the landscape. Within arid continental interiors single earthquake scarps can be preserved for thousands of years, and yet the interval between surface ruptures on faults in these regions may be much longer, such that the lack of evidence for surface faulting in the morphology may not preclude activity on those faults. In this study we investigate the 50 km-long ‘Toraigyr’ thrust fault in the northern Tien Shan. From palaeoseismological trenching we show that two surface rupturing earthquakes occurred in the last $\textbf{39.9±2.7 ka}$ BP, but only the most recent event (3.15–3.6 ka BP) has a clear morphological expression. We conclude that a landscape reset took place in between the two events, likely as a consequence of the climatic change at the end of the last glacial maximum. These findings illustrate that in the Tien Shan evidence for the most recent active faulting can be easily obliterated by climatic processes due to the long earthquake recurrence intervals. Our results illustrate the problems related to the assessment of active tectonic deformation and seismic hazard assessments in continental interior settings.This study was financed by NERC and ESRC (Earthquakes without Frontiers project, Grant code: EwF_NE/J02001X/1_1), and the Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes and Tectonics (COMET). KOMPSAT-2 imagery was obtained through a category-1 award to RTW. EJC thanks St. Edmund Hall for travel support. RTW was supported during this research by a University Research Fellowship from the Royal Society of London

The future of sovereignty in multilevel governance Europe: a constructivist reading

Multilevel governance presents a depiction of contemporary structures in EU Europe as consisting of overlapping authorities and competing competencies. By focusing on emerging non-anarchical structures in the international system, hence moving beyond the conventional hierarchy/anarchy dichotomy to distinguish domestic and international arenas, this seems a radical transformation of the familiar Westphalian system and to undermine state sovereignty. Paradoxically, however, the principle of sovereignty proves to be resilient despite its alleged empirical decline. This article argues that social constructivism can explain the paradox, by considering sovereign statehood as a process-dependent institutional fact, and by showing that multilevel governance can feed into this process

Probing the upper end of intracontinental earthquake magnitude: a prehistoric example from the Dzhungarian and Lepsy faults of Kazakhstan

The study of surface ruptures is key to understanding the earthquake occurrence of faults especially in the absence of historical events. We present a detailed analysis of geomorphic displacements along the Dzhungarian Fault, which straddles the border of China and Kazakhstan. We use digital elevation models derived from structure-from-motion analysis of Pléiades satellite imagery and drone imagery from specific field sites to measure surface offsets. We provide direct age constraints from alluvial terraces displaced by faulting and indirect dating from morphological analysis of the scarps. We find that the southern 250 km of the fault likely ruptured in a single event in the last 4,000 years, with displacements of 10–15 m, and potentially up to 20 m at one site. We infer that this Dzhungarian rupture is likely linked with a previously identified paleo-earthquake rupture on the Lepsy Fault through a system of splays in the intervening highlands. Though there are remaining uncertainties regarding consistency in age constraints between the two fault ruptures, most of the sites along the two faults are consistent with a most recent event 2,000–4,000 years ago. Rupture on the Dzhungarian Fault alone is likely to have exceeded Mw 8, and the combined Lepsy-Dzhungarian rupture scenario may have been up to Mw 8.4. Despite being at the upper end of known or inferred continental earthquake magnitudes, our proposed scenario combining the 375 km of the Dzhungarian and Lepsy ruptures yields a slip-to-length ratio consistent with global averages and so do other historical intracontinental earthquakes in Central Asia

Scale-free memory model for multiagent reinforcement learning. Mean field approximation and rock-paper-scissors dynamics

A continuous time model for multiagent systems governed by reinforcement learning with scale-free memory is developed. The agents are assumed to act independently of one another in optimizing their choice of possible actions via trial-and-error search. To gain awareness about the action value the agents accumulate in their memory the rewards obtained from taking a specific action at each moment of time. The contribution of the rewards in the past to the agent current perception of action value is described by an integral operator with a power-law kernel. Finally a fractional differential equation governing the system dynamics is obtained. The agents are considered to interact with one another implicitly via the reward of one agent depending on the choice of the other agents. The pairwise interaction model is adopted to describe this effect. As a specific example of systems with non-transitive interactions, a two agent and three agent systems of the rock-paper-scissors type are analyzed in detail, including the stability analysis and numerical simulation. Scale-free memory is demonstrated to cause complex dynamics of the systems at hand. In particular, it is shown that there can be simultaneously two modes of the system instability undergoing subcritical and supercritical bifurcation, with the latter one exhibiting anomalous oscillations with the amplitude and period growing with time. Besides, the instability onset via this supercritical mode may be regarded as "altruism self-organization". For the three agent system the instability dynamics is found to be rather irregular and can be composed of alternate fragments of oscillations different in their properties.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figur

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012