Towards fast machine-learning-assisted Bayesian posterior inference of microseismic event location and source mechanism

Bayesian inference applied to microseismic activity monitoring allows the accurate location of microseismic events from recorded seismograms and the estimation of the associated uncertainties. However, the forward modelling of these microseismic events, which is necessary to perform Bayesian source inversion, can be prohibitively expensive in terms of computational resources. A viable solution is to train a surrogate model based on machine learning techniques, to emulate the forward model and thus accelerate Bayesian inference. In this paper, we substantially enhance previous work, which considered only sources with isotropic moment tensors. We train a machine learning algorithm on the power spectrum of the recorded pressure wave and show that the trained emulator allows complete and fast event locations for any source mechanism. Moreover, we show that our approach is computationally inexpensive, as it can be run in less than 1 hour on a commercial laptop, while yielding accurate results using less than 104 training seismograms. We additionally demonstrate how the trained emulators can be used to identify the source mechanism through the estimation of the Bayesian evidence. Finally, we demonstrate that our approach is robust to real noise as measured in field data. This work lays the foundations for efficient, accurate future joint determinations of event location and moment tensor, and associated uncertainties, which are ultimately key for accurately characterising human-induced and natural earthquakes, and for enhanced quantitative seismic hazard assessments

Cluster analysis of behavioural and event-related potentials during a contingent negative variation paradigm in remitting-relapsing and benign forms of multiple sclerosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Event-related potentials (ERPs) may be used as a highly sensitive way of detecting subtle degrees of cognitive dysfunction. On the other hand, impairment of cognitive skills is increasingly recognised as a hallmark of patients suffering from multiple sclerosis (MS). We sought to determine the psychophysiological pattern of information processing among MS patients with the relapsing-remitting form of the disease and low physical disability considered as two subtypes: 'typical relapsing-remitting' (RRMS) and 'benign MS' (BMS). Furthermore, we subjected our data to a cluster analysis to determine whether MS patients and healthy controls could be differentiated in terms of their psychophysiological profile.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We investigated MS patients with RRMS and BMS subtypes using event-related potentials (ERPs) acquired in the context of a Posner visual-spatial cueing paradigm. Specifically, our study aimed to assess ERP brain activity in response preparation (contingent negative variation -CNV) and stimuli processing in MS patients. Latency and amplitude of different ERP components (P1, eN1, N1, P2, N2, P3 and late negativity -LN) as well as behavioural responses (reaction time -RT; correct responses -CRs; and number of errors) were analyzed and then subjected to cluster analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both MS groups showed delayed behavioural responses and enhanced latency for long-latency ERP components (P2, N2, P3) as well as relatively preserved ERP amplitude, but BMS patients obtained more important performance deficits (lower CRs and higher RTs) and abnormalities related to the latency (N1, P3) and amplitude of ERPs (eCNV, eN1, LN). However, RRMS patients also demonstrated abnormally high amplitudes related to the preparation performance period of CNV (cCNV) and post-processing phase (LN). Cluster analyses revealed that RRMS patients appear to make up a relatively homogeneous group with moderate deficits mainly related to ERP latencies, whereas BMS patients appear to make up a rather more heterogeneous group with more severe information processing and attentional deficits.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our findings are suggestive of a slowing of information processing for MS patients that may be a consequence of demyelination and axonal degeneration, which also seems to occur in MS patients that show little or no progression in the physical severity of the disease over time.</p

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Association between the ACCN1 Gene and Multiple Sclerosis in Central East Sardinia

Multiple genome screens have been performed to identify regions in linkage or association with Multiple Sclerosis (MS, OMIM 126200), but little overlap has been found among them. This may be, in part, due to a low statistical power to detect small genetic effects and to genetic heterogeneity within and among the studied populations. Motivated by these considerations, we studied a very special population, namely that of Nuoro, Sardinia, Italy. This is an isolated, old, and genetically homogeneous population with high prevalence of MS. Our study sample includes both nuclear families and unrelated cases and controls. A multi-stage study design was adopted. In the first stage, microsatellites were typed in the 17q11.2 region, previously independently found to be in linkage with MS. One significant association was found at microsatellite D17S798. Next, a bioinformatic screening of the region surrounding this marker highlighted an interesting candidate MS susceptibility gene: the Amiloride-sensitive Cation Channel Neuronal 1 (ACCN1) gene. In the second stage of the study, we resequenced the exons and the 3′ untranslated (UTR) region of ACCN1, and investigated the MS association of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in that region. For this purpose, we developed a method of analysis where complete, phase-solved, posterior-weighted haplotype assignments are imputed for each study individual from incomplete, multi-locus, genotyping data. The imputed assignments provide an input to a number of proposed procedures for testing association at a microsatellite level or of a sequence of SNPs. These include a Mantel-Haenszel type test based on expected frequencies of pseudocase/pseudocontrol haplotypes, as well as permutation based tests, including a combination of permutation and weighted logistic regression analysis. Application of these methods allowed us to find a significant association between MS and the SNP rs28936 located in the 3′ UTR segment of ACCN1 with p = 0.0004 (p = 0.002, after adjusting for multiple testing). This result is in tune with several recent experimental findings which suggest that ACCN1 may play an important role in the pathogenesis of MS

The Italian multiple sclerosis register

The past decade has seen extraordinary increase in worldwide availability of and access to several large multiple sclerosis (MS) databases and registries. MS registries represent powerful tools to provide meaningful information on the burden, natural history, and long-term safety and effectiveness of treatments. Moreover, patients, physicians, industry, and policy makers have an active interest in real-world observational studies based on register data, as they have the potential to answer the questions that are most relevant to daily treatment decision-making. In 2014, the Italian MS Foundation, in collaboration with the Italian MS clinical centers, promoted and funded the creation of the Italian MS Register, a project in continuity with the existing Italian MS Database Network set up from 2001. Main objective of the Italian MS Register is to create an organized multicenter structure to collect data of all MS patients for better defining the disease epidemiology, improving quality of care, and promoting research projects in high-priority areas. The aim of this article is to present the current framework and network of the Italian MS register, including the methodology used to improve the quality of data collection and to facilitate the exchange of data and the collaboration among national and international groups

The Italian multiple sclerosis register

The past decade has seen extraordinary increase in worldwide availability of and access to several large multiple sclerosis (MS) databases and registries. MS registries represent powerful tools to provide meaningful information on the burden, natural history, and long-term safety and effectiveness of treatments. Moreover, patients, physicians, industry, and policy makers have an active interest in real-world observational studies based on register data, as they have the potential to answer the questions that are most relevant to daily treatment decision-making. In 2014, the Italian MS Foundation, in collaboration with the Italian MS clinical centers, promoted and funded the creation of the Italian MS Register, a project in continuity with the existing Italian MS Database Network set up from 2001. Main objective of the Italian MS Register is to create an organized multicenter structure to collect data of all MS patients for better defining the disease epidemiology, improving quality of care, and promoting research projects in high-priority areas. The aim of this article is to present the current framework and network of the Italian MS register, including the methodology used to improve the quality of data collection and to facilitate the exchange of data and the collaboration among national and international groups

A Genome-Wide Association Scan on the Levels of Markers of Inflammation in Sardinians Reveals Associations That Underpin Its Complex Regulation

Identifying the genes that influence levels of pro-inflammatory molecules can help to elucidate the mechanisms underlying this process. We first conducted a two-stage genome-wide association scan (GWAS) for the key inflammatory biomarkers Interleukin-6 (IL-6), the general measure of inflammation erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) in a large cohort of individuals from the founder population of Sardinia. By analysing 731,213 autosomal or X chromosome SNPs and an additional ∼1.9 million imputed variants in 4,694 individuals, we identified several SNPs associated with the selected quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and replicated all the top signals in an independent sample of 1,392 individuals from the same population. Next, to increase power to detect and resolve associations, we further genotyped the whole cohort (6,145 individuals) for 293,875 variants included on the ImmunoChip and MetaboChip custom arrays. Overall, our combined approach led to the identification of 9 genome-wide significant novel independent signals—5 of which were identified only with the custom arrays—and provided confirmatory evidence for an additional 7. Novel signals include: for IL-6, in the ABO gene (rs657152, p = 2.13×10−29); for ESR, at the HBB (rs4910472, p = 2.31×10−11) and UCN119B/SPPL3 (rs11829037, p = 8.91×10−10) loci; for MCP-1, near its receptor CCR2 (rs17141006, p = 7.53×10−13) and in CADM3 (rs3026968, p = 7.63×10−13); for hsCRP, within the CRP gene (rs3093077, p = 5.73×10−21), near DARC (rs3845624, p = 1.43×10−10), UNC119B/SPPL3 (rs11829037, p = 1.50×10−14), and ICOSLG/AIRE (rs113459440, p = 1.54×10−08) loci. Confirmatory evidence was found for IL-6 in the IL-6R gene (rs4129267); for ESR at CR1 (rs12567990) and TMEM57 (rs10903129); for MCP-1 at DARC (rs12075); and for hsCRP at CRP (rs1205), HNF1A (rs225918), and APOC-I (rs4420638). Our results improve the current knowledge of genetic variants underlying inflammation and provide novel clues for the understanding of the molecular mechanisms regulating this complex process

Data monitoring roadmap. The experience of the Italian Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders Register

Introduction Over the years, disease registers have been increasingly considered a source of reliable and valuable population studies. However, the validity and reliability of data from registers may be limited by missing data, selection bias or data quality not adequately evaluated or checked.This study reports the analysis of the consistency and completeness of the data in the Italian Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders Register.MethodsThe Register collects, through a standardized Web-based Application, unique patients.Data are exported bimonthly and evaluated to assess the updating and completeness, and to check the quality and consistency. Eight clinical indicators are evaluated.ResultsThe Register counts 77,628 patients registered by 126 centres. The number of centres has increased over time, as their capacity to collect patients.The percentages of updated patients (with at least one visit in the last 24 months) have increased from 33% (enrolment period 2000-2015) to 60% (enrolment period 2016-2022). In the cohort of patients registered after 2016, there were &gt;= 75% updated patients in 30% of the small centres (33), in 9% of the medium centres (11), and in all the large centres (2).Clinical indicators show significant improvement for the active patients, expanded disability status scale every 6 months or once every 12 months, visits every 6 months, first visit within 1 year and MRI every 12 months.ConclusionsData from disease registers provide guidance for evidence-based health policies and research, so methods and strategies ensuring their quality and reliability are crucial and have several potential applications