Approaches for multi-step density forecasts with application to aggregated wind power

The generation of multi-step density forecasts for non-Gaussian data mostly relies on Monte Carlo simulations which are computationally intensive. Using aggregated wind power in Ireland, we study two approaches of multi-step density forecasts which can be obtained from simple iterations so that intensive computations are avoided. In the first approach, we apply a logistic transformation to normalize the data approximately and describe the transformed data using ARIMA--GARCH models so that multi-step forecasts can be iterated easily. In the second approach, we describe the forecast densities by truncated normal distributions which are governed by two parameters, namely, the conditional mean and conditional variance. We apply exponential smoothing methods to forecast the two parameters simultaneously. Since the underlying model of exponential smoothing is Gaussian, we are able to obtain multi-step forecasts of the parameters by simple iterations and thus generate forecast densities as truncated normal distributions. We generate forecasts for wind power from 15 minutes to 24 hours ahead. Results show that the first approach generates superior forecasts and slightly outperforms the second approach under various proper scores. Nevertheless, the second approach is computationally more efficient and gives more robust results under different lengths of training data. It also provides an attractive alternative approach since one is allowed to choose a particular parametric density for the forecasts, and is valuable when there are no obvious transformations to normalize the data.Comment: Corrected version includes updated equation (18). Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS320 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Acupuncture Transmitted Infections

published_or_final_versio

Effect of weekly physical activity frequency on weight loss in healthy overweight and obese women attending a weight loss program: a randomized controlled trial

ABSTRACT Background: The effect of intensity and duration of physical activity (PA) on weight loss has been well described. However, the effect of the frequency of weekly PA on weight loss is still unknown. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of the frequency of weekly PA sessions while maintaining the same total activity time on weight loss during a 24-wk weight loss program. Design: Overweight and obese women [n = 75; body mass index(BMI; in kg/m2): 27–37; age: 18–40 y] who had a normally sedentary lifestyle were randomly allocated to 1 of 2 intervention groups: a high-frequency physical activity (HF) or a low-frequency physical activity (LF) group. The HF group included 50 min/d PA, 6 d/wk (300 min/wk). The LF group included 100 min/d PA, 3 d/wk (300 min/wk). Both groups were advised to follow the same dietary weight loss program. Results: Both groups showed a significant decrease in anthropometric measurements and significant improvements in cardiometabolic disease risk characteristics over the 24 wk of the study. Compared with the HF group, the LF group had a greater decrease in weight (mean 6 SD; LF: 9.58 6 3.77 kg; HF: 7.78 6 2.68 kg; P = 0.028), BMI (LF: 3.62 6 1.56; HF: 2.97 6 1.02; P = 0.029) and waist circumference (LF: 9.36 6 4.02 cm; HF: 7.86 6 2.41 cm; P = 0.031). However, there were no significant differences in carbohydrate metabolism characteristics or lipid profile after the 24 wk of intervention. Conclusion: Weekly PA undertaken over fewer sessions of longer duration during the week could be more effective for weight loss than when undertaken as more frequent shorter sessions in overweight and obese women on a weight loss program. This may be helpful for those who are neither willing nor able to schedule time for PA almost every day to achieve weight loss. This trial was registered at www.irct.ir as IRCT201402157754N4

Peripheral blood biomarkers in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is the most common autoimmune disorder affecting the central nervous system. The heteroge-neity of pathophysiological processes in MS contributes to the highly variable course of the disease and unpre-dictable response to therapies. The major focus of the research on MS is the identification of biomarkers inbiologicalfluids, such as cerebrospinalfluid or blood, to guide patient management reliably. Because of the diffi-culties in obtaining spinalfluid samples and the necessity for lumbar puncture to make a diagnosis has reduced,the research of blood-based biomarkers may provide increasingly important tools for clinical practice. However,currently there are no clearly established MS blood-based biomarkers. The availability of reliable biomarkerscould radically alter the management of MS at critical phases of the disease spectrum, allowing for interventionstrategies that may prevent evolution to long-term neurological disability. This article provides an overview ofthis researchfield and focuses on recent advances in blood-based biomarker researc

Distinct Costimulatory Molecules Are Required for the Induction of Effector and Memory Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes

A successful T cell immune response has two major products: effector T cells which directly or indirectly remove the antigens, and memory T cells, which allow a faster and more efficient recall response when challenged by related antigens. An important issue is whether costimulatory molecules on the antigen-presenting cells are involved in determining whether T cells will differentiate into effector or memory cells after antigenic stimulation. To address this issue, we have produced mice with targeted mutations of either the heat-stable antigen (HSA), or both HSA and CD28. We show that CD28/B7 and HSA provide two alternative costimulatory pathways for induction of immunological memory to influenza virus. Furthermore, our results revealed that B7 is essential for the generation of effector T cells from either naive or memory T cells, while HSA is not necessary for the generation of effector T cells. Our results demonstrate that the induction of memory T cells and effector T cells can utilize distinct costimulatory molecules. These results have important implications on lineage relationship between effector and memory T cells

Interventions for hyperhidrosis in secondary care : a systematic review and value-of-information analysis

Background: Hyperhidrosis is uncontrollable excessive sweating that occurs at rest, regardless of temperature. The symptoms of hyperhidrosis can significantly affect quality of life. The management of hyperhidrosis is uncertain and variable. Objective: To establish the expected value of undertaking additional research to determine the most effective interventions for the management of refractory primary hyperhidrosis in secondary care. Methods: A systematic review and economic model, including a value-of-information (VOI) analysis. Treatments to be prescribed by dermatologists and minor surgical treatments for hyperhidrosis of the hands, feet and axillae were reviewed; as endoscopic thoracic sympathectomy (ETS) is incontestably an end-of-line treatment, it was not reviewed further. Fifteen databases (e.g. CENTRAL, PubMed and PsycINFO), conference proceedings and trial registers were searched from inception to July 2016. Systematic review methods were followed. Pairwise meta-analyses were conducted for comparisons between botulinum toxin (BTX) injections and placebo for axillary hyperhidrosis, but otherwise, owing to evidence limitations, data were synthesised narratively. A decision-analytic model assessed the cost-effectiveness and VOI of five treatments (iontophoresis, medication, BTX, curettage, ETS) in 64 different sequences for axillary hyperhidrosis only. Results and conclusions: Fifty studies were included in the effectiveness review: 32 randomised controlled trials (RCTs), 17 non-RCTs and one large prospective case series. Most studies were small, rated as having a high risk of bias and poorly reported. The interventions assessed in the review were iontophoresis, BTX, anticholinergic medications, curettage and newer energy-based technologies that damage the sweat gland (e.g. laser, microwave). There is moderate-quality evidence of a large statistically significant effect of BTX on axillary hyperhidrosis symptoms, compared with placebo. There was weak but consistent evidence for iontophoresis for palmar hyperhidrosis. Evidence for other interventions was of low or very low quality. For axillary hyperhidrosis cost-effectiveness results indicated that iontophoresis, BTX, medication, curettage and ETS was the most cost-effective sequence (probability 0.8), with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £9304 per quality-adjusted life-year. Uncertainty associated with study bias was not reflected in the economic results. Patients and clinicians attending an end-of-project workshop were satisfied with the sequence of treatments for axillary hyperhidrosis identified as being cost-effective. All patient advisors considered that the Hyperhidrosis Quality of Life Index was superior to other tools commonly used in hyperhidrosis research for assessing quality of life. Limitations: The evidence for the clinical effectiveness and safety of second-line treatments for primary hyperhidrosis is limited. This meant that there was insufficient evidence to draw conclusions for most interventions assessed and the cost-effectiveness analysis was restricted to hyperhidrosis of the axilla. Future work: Based on anecdotal evidence and inference from evidence for the axillae, participants agreed that a trial of BTX (with anaesthesia) compared with iontophoresis for palmar hyperhidrosis would be most useful. The VOI analysis indicates that further research into the effectiveness of existing medications might be worthwhile, but it is unclear that such trials are of clinical importance. Research that established a robust estimate of the annual incidence of axillary hyperhidrosis in the UK population would reduce the uncertainty in future VOI analyses

Measurement of the top quark forward-backward production asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric and chromomagnetic moments in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV

Abstract The parton-level top quark (t) forward-backward asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric (d̂ t) and chromomagnetic (μ̂ t) moments have been measured using LHC pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected in the CMS detector in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. The linearized variable AFB(1) is used to approximate the asymmetry. Candidate t t ¯ events decaying to a muon or electron and jets in final states with low and high Lorentz boosts are selected and reconstructed using a fit of the kinematic distributions of the decay products to those expected for t t ¯ final states. The values found for the parameters are AFB(1)=0.048−0.087+0.095(stat)−0.029+0.020(syst),μ̂t=−0.024−0.009+0.013(stat)−0.011+0.016(syst), and a limit is placed on the magnitude of | d̂ t| < 0.03 at 95% confidence level. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

MUSiC : a model-unspecific search for new physics in proton-proton collisions at root s=13TeV

Results of the Model Unspecific Search in CMS (MUSiC), using proton-proton collision data recorded at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1), are presented. The MUSiC analysis searches for anomalies that could be signatures of physics beyond the standard model. The analysis is based on the comparison of observed data with the standard model prediction, as determined from simulation, in several hundred final states and multiple kinematic distributions. Events containing at least one electron or muon are classified based on their final state topology, and an automated search algorithm surveys the observed data for deviations from the prediction. The sensitivity of the search is validated using multiple methods. No significant deviations from the predictions have been observed. For a wide range of final state topologies, agreement is found between the data and the standard model simulation. This analysis complements dedicated search analyses by significantly expanding the range of final states covered using a model independent approach with the largest data set to date to probe phase space regions beyond the reach of previous general searches.Peer reviewe

Search for new particles in events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for new particles produced at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at root s = 13 TeV, using events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb(-1), collected in 2017-2018 with the CMS detector. Machine learning techniques are used to define separate categories for events with narrow jets from initial-state radiation and events with large-radius jets consistent with a hadronic decay of a W or Z boson. A statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data sample of 36 fb(-1), collected in 2016. No significant excess of events is observed with respect to the standard model background expectation determined from control samples in data. The results are interpreted in terms of limits on the branching fraction of an invisible decay of the Higgs boson, as well as constraints on simplified models of dark matter, on first-generation scalar leptoquarks decaying to quarks and neutrinos, and on models with large extra dimensions. Several of the new limits, specifically for spin-1 dark matter mediators, pseudoscalar mediators, colored mediators, and leptoquarks, are the most restrictive to date.Peer reviewe