Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Postpyloric enteral nutrition in the critically ill child with shock: a prospective observational study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tolerance to enteral nutrition in the critically ill child with shock has not been studied. The purpose of the study was to analyze the characteristics of enteral nutrition and its tolerance in the critically ill child with shock and to compare this with non-shocked patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective, observational study was performed including critically ill children with shock who received postpyloric enteral nutrition (PEN). The type of nutrition used, its duration, tolerance, and gastrointestinal complications were assessed. The 65 children with shock who received PEN were compared with 461 non-shocked critically ill children who received PEN.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty-five critically ill children with shock, aged between 21 days and 22 years, received PEN. 75.4% of patients with shock received PEN exclusively. The mean duration of the PEN was 25.2 days and the maximum calorie intake was 79.4 kcal/kg/day. Twenty patients with shock (30.7%) presented gastrointestinal complications, 10 (15.4%) abdominal distension and/or excessive gastric residue, 13 (20%) diarrhoea, 1 necrotising enterocolitis, and 1 duodenal perforation due to the postpyloric tube. The frequency of gastrointestinal complications was significantly higher than in the other 461 critically ill children (9.1%). PEN was suspended due to gastrointestinal complications in 6 patients with shock (9.2%). There were 18 deaths among the patients with shock and PEN (27.7%). In only one patient was the death related to complications of the nutrition.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although most critically ill children with shock can tolerate postpyloric enteral nutrition, the incidence of gastrointestinal complications is higher in this group of patients than in other critically ill children.</p

Procalcitonin is not sufficiently reliable to be the sole marker of neonatal sepsis of nosocomial origin

BACKGROUND: It has recently been suggested that serum procalcitonin (PCT) is of value in the diagnosis of neonatal sepsis, with varying results. The aim of this prospective multicenter study was to assess the usefulness of PCT as a marker of neonatal sepsis of nosocomial origin. METHODS: One hundred infants aged between 4 and 28 days of life admitted to the Neonatology Services of 13 acute-care teaching hospitals in Spain over 1-year with clinical suspicion of neonatal sepsis of nosocomial origin were included in the study. Serum PCT concentrations were determined by a specific immunoluminometric assay. The reliability of PCT for the diagnosis of nosocomial neonatal sepsis at the time of suspicion of infection and at 12–24 h and 36–48 h after the onset of symptoms was calculated by receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves. The Youden's index (sensitivity + specificity - 1) was used for determination of optimal cutoff values of the diagnostic tests in the different postnatal periods. Sensitivity, specificity, and the likelihood ratio of a positive and negative result with the 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: The diagnosis of nosocomial sepsis was confirmed in 61 neonates. Serum PCT concentrations were significantly higher at initial suspicion and at 12–24 h and 36–48 h after the onset of symptoms in neonates with confirmed sepsis than in neonates with clinically suspected but not confirmed sepsis. Optimal PCT thresholds according to ROC curves were 0.59 ng/mL at the time of suspicion of sepsis (sensitivity 81.4%, specificity 80.6%); 1.34 ng/mL within 12–24 h of birth (sensitivity 73.7%, specificity 80.6%), and 0.69 ng/mL within 36–48 h of birth (sensitivity 86.5%, specificity 72.7%). CONCLUSION: Serum PCT concentrations showed a moderate diagnostic reliability for the detection of nosocomial neonatal sepsis from the time of suspicion of infection. PCT is not sufficiently reliable to be the sole marker of sepsis, but would be useful as part of a full sepsis evaluation

Body Shape and Life Style of the Extinct Balearic Dormouse Hypnomys (Rodentia, Gliridae): New Evidence from the Study of Associated Skeletons

Hypnomys is a genus of Gliridae (Rodentia) that occurred in the Balearic Islands until Late Holocene. Recent finding of a complete skeleton of the chronospecies H. morpheus (Late Pleistocene-Early Holocene) and two articulated skeletons of H. cf. onicensis (Late Pliocene) allowed the inference of body size and the calculation of several postcranial indexes. We also performed a Factorial Discriminant Analysis (FDA) in order to evaluate locomotory behaviour and body shape of the taxa. Using allometric models based on skull and tooth measurements, we calculated a body weight between 173 and 284 g for H. morpheus, and direct measurements of articulated skeletons yielded a Head and Body Length (HBL) of 179 mm and a Total Body Length of 295 mm for this species. In addition to the generally higher robustness of postcranial bones already recorded by previous authors, H. morpheus, similar to Canariomys tamarani, another extinct island species, displayed elongated zygopodium bones of the limbs and a wider distal humerus and femur than in an extant related taxon, Eliomys quercinus. Indexes indicated that Hypnomys was more terrestrial and had greater fossorial abilities than E. quercinus. This was also corroborated by a Discriminant Analysis, although no clear additional inference of locomotory abilities could be calculated

Mating and aggregative behaviors among basal hexapods in the Early Cretaceous

Among the many challenges in paleobiology is the inference and reconstruction of behaviors that rarely, if ever, leave a physical trace on the environment that is suitable for fossilization. Of particular significance are those behaviors tied to mating and courtship, individual interactions critical for species integrity and continuance, as well as those for dispersal, permitting the taxon to expand its distribution as well as access new habitats in the face of local or long-term environmental change. In this context, two recently discovered fossils from the Early Cretaceous amber of Spain (ca. 105 mya) give a detailed view of otherwise fleeting ethologies in Collembola. These occurrences are phylogenetically spaced across the class, and from species representing the two major clades of springtailsÐSymphypleona and Entomobryomorpha. Specifically, we report unique evidence from a symphypleonan male (Pseudosminthurides stoechus SaÂnchez-GarcõÂa & Engel, 2016) with modified antennae that may have functioned as a clasping organ for securing females during mating on water's surface, and from an aggregation of entomobryomorphan individuals (Proisotoma communis Sánchez-García & Engel, 2016) purportedly representing a swarming episode on the forest floor. We demonstrate that the mating behavioral repertoire in P. stoechus, which is associated with considerable morphological adaptations, likely implied elaborate courtship and maneuvering for guarantee sperm transfer in an epineustic species. These discoveries reveal significant behaviors consistent with modern counterparts and a generalized stasis for some ancient hexapod ethologies associated with complex mating and courtship and social or pre-social aggregations, so critical to specific constancy and dispersal

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Adjuvant interferon gamma in patients with pulmonary atypical Mycobacteriosis: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>High antibiotic resistance is described in atypical Mycobacteriosis, mainly by <it>Mycobacterium avium </it>complex (MAC).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial was carried out in two hospitals to evaluate the effect of interferon (IFN) gamma as immunoadjuvant to chemotherapy on patients with atypical mycobacteria lung disease. Patients received placebo or 1 × 10⁶IU recombinant human IFN gamma intramuscularly, daily for one month and then three times per week up to 6 months as adjuvant to daily oral azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, ethambutol and rifampin. Sputum samples collection for direct smear observation and culture as well as clinical and thorax radiography assessments were done during treatment and one year after. Cytokines and oxidative stress determinations were carried out in peripheral blood before and after treatment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Eighteen patients were included in the IFN group and 14 received placebo. Groups were homogeneous at entry; average age was 60 years, 75% men, 84% white; MAC infection prevailed (94%). At the end of treatment, 72% of patients treated with IFN gamma were evaluated as complete responders, but only 36% in the placebo group. The difference was maintained during follow-up. A more rapid complete response was obtained in the IFN group (5 months before), with a significantly earlier improvement in respiratory symptoms and pulmonary lesions reduction. Disease-related deaths were 35.7% of the patients in the placebo group and only 11.1% in the IFN group. Three patients in the IFN group normalized their globular sedimentation rate values. Although differences in bacteriology were not significant during the treatment period, some patients in the placebo group converted again to positive during follow-up. Significant increments in serum TGF-beta and advanced oxidation protein products were observed in the placebo group but not among IFN receiving patients. Treatments were well tolerated. Flu-like symptoms predominated in the IFN gamma group. No severe events were recorded.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These data suggest that IFN gamma is useful and well tolerated as adjuvant therapy in patients with pulmonary atypical Mycobacteriosis, predominantly MAC. Further wider clinical trials are encouraged.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN70900209.</p

Insulin resistance and its association with the components of the metabolic syndrome among obese children and adolescents

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Insulin resistance is the primary metabolic disorder associated with obesity; yet little is known about its role as a determinant of the metabolic syndrome in obese children. The aim of this study is to assess the association between the degree of insulin resistance and the different components of the metabolic syndrome among obese children and adolescents.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An analytical, cross-sectional and population-based study was performed in forty-four public primary schools in Campeche City, Mexico. A total of 466 obese children and adolescents between 11-13 years of age were recruited. Fasting glucose and insulin concentrations, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressures were measured; insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome were also evaluated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Out of the total population studied, 69% presented low values of high density lipoprotein cholesterol, 49% suffered from abdominal obesity, 29% had hypertriglyceridemia, 8% presented high systolic and 13% high diastolic blood pressure, 4% showed impaired fasting glucose, 51% presented insulin resistance and 20% metabolic syndrome. In spite of being obese, 13% of the investigated population did not present any metabolic disorder. For each one of the components of the metabolic syndrome, when insulin resistance increased so did odds ratios as cardiometabolic risk factors.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Regardless of age and gender an increased degree of insulin resistance is associated with a higher prevalence of disorders in each of the components of the metabolic syndrome and with a heightened risk of suffering metabolic syndrome among obese children and adolescents.</p

Trends in eczema prevalence in children and adolescents: A Global Asthma Network Phase I Study

Background: Eczema (atopic dermatitis) is a major global public health issue with high prevalence and morbidity. Our goal was to evaluate eczema prevalence over time, using standardized methodology. Methods: The Global Asthma Network (GAN) Phase I study is an international collaborative study arising from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC). Using surveys, we assessed eczema prevalence, severity, and lifetime prevalence, in global centres participating in GAN Phase I (2015–2020) and one/ both of ISAAC Phase I (1993–1995) and Phase III (2001–2003). We fitted linear mixed models to estimate 10-yearly prevalence trends, by age group, income, and region. Results: We analysed GAN Phase I data from 27 centres in 14 countries involving 74,361 adolescents aged 13–14 and 47,907 children aged 6–7 (response rate 90%, 79%). A median of 6% of children and adolescents had symptoms of current eczema, with 1.1% and 0.6% in adolescents and children, respectively, reporting symptoms of severe eczema. Over 27 years, after adjusting for world region and income, we estimated small overall 10-year increases in current eczema prevalence (adolescents: 0.98%, 95% CI 0.04%–1.92%; children: 1.21%, 95% CI 0.18%–2.24%), and severe eczema (adolescents: 0.26%, 95% CI 0.06%–0.46%; children: 0.23%, 95% CI 0.02%–0.45%) with larger increases in lifetime prevalence (adolescents: 2.71%, 95% CI 1.10%–4.32%; children: 3.91%, 95% CI 2.07%–5.75%). There was substantial heterogeneity in 10-year change between centres (standard deviations 2.40%, 0.58%, and 3.04%), and strong evidence that some of this heterogeneity was explained by region and income level, with increases in some outcomes in high-income children and middle-income adolescents. Conclusions: There is substantial variation in changes in eczema prevalence over time by income and region. Understanding reasons for increases in some regions and decreases in others will help inform prevention strategies