Error Rates, Decisive Outcomes and Publication Bias with Several Inferential Methods

Correction to this article published Hopkins, W.G. & Batterham, A.M. Sports Med (2016) 46: 923. doi:10.1007/s40279-016-0530-

Investigation of the impact of the NICE guidelines regarding antibiotic prophylaxis during invasive dental procedures on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England: an electronic health records study

Background Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, where evidence for giving antibiotic prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures is inconclusive. In England, antibiotic prophylaxis was offered routinely to patients at risk of infective endocarditis until March 2008, when new guidelines aimed at reducing unnecessary antibiotic use were issued. We investigated whether changes in infective endocarditis incidence could be detected using electronic health records, assessing the impact of inclusion criteria/statistical model choice on inferences about the timing/type of any change. Methods Using national data from Hospital Episode Statistics covering 1998–2017, we modelled trends in infective endocarditis incidence using three different sets of inclusion criteria plus a range of regression models, identifying the most likely date for a change in trends if evidence for one existed. We also modelled trends in the proportions of different organism groups identified during infection episodes, using secondary diagnosis codes and data from national laboratory records. Lastly, we applied non-parametric local smoothing to visually inspect any changes in trend around the guideline change date. Results Infective endocarditis incidence increased markedly over the study (22.2–41.3 per million population in 1998 to 42.0–67.7 in 2017 depending on inclusion criteria). The most likely dates for a change in incidence trends ranged from September 2001 (uncertainty interval August 2000–May 2003) to May 2015 (March 1999–January 2016), depending on inclusion criteria and statistical model used. For the proportion of infective endocarditis cases associated with streptococci, the most likely change points ranged from October 2008 (March 2006–April 2010) to August 2015 (September 2013–November 2015), with those associated with oral streptococci decreasing in proportion after the change point. Smoothed trends showed no notable changes in trend around the guideline date. Conclusions Infective endocarditis incidence has increased rapidly in England, though we did not detect any change in trends directly following the updated guidelines for antibiotic prophylaxis, either overall or in cases associated with oral streptococci. Estimates of when changes occurred were sensitive to inclusion criteria and statistical model choice, demonstrating the need for caution in interpreting single models when using large datasets. More research is needed to explore the factors behind this increase

Effects of lowering body temperature via hyperhydration, with and without glycerol ingestion and practical precooling on cycling time trial performance in hot and humid conditions

Background: Hypohydration and hyperthermia are factors that may contribute to fatigue and impairment of endurance performance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of combining glycerol hyperhydration and an established precooling technique on cycling time trial performance in hot environmental conditions.Methods: Twelve well-trained male cyclists performed three 46.4-km laboratory-based cycling trials that included two climbs, under hot and humid environmental conditions (33.3 ± 1.1°C; 50 ± 6% r.h.). Subjects were required to hyperhydrate with 25 g.kg-1 body mass (BM) of a 4°C beverage containing 6% carbohydrate (CON) 2.5 h prior to the time trial. On two occasions, subjects were also exposed to an established precooling technique (PC) 60 min prior to the time trial, involving 14 g.kg-1 BM ice slurry ingestion and applied iced towels over 30 min. During one PC trial, 1.2 g.kg-1 BM glycerol was added to the hyperhydration beverage in a double-blind fashion (PC+G). Statistics used in this study involve the combination of traditional probability statistics and a magnitude-based inference approach.Results: Hyperhydration resulted in large reductions (-0.6 to -0.7°C) in rectal temperature. The addition of glycerol to this solution also lowered urine output (330 ml, 10%). Precooling induced further small (-0.3°C) to moderate (-0.4°C) reductions in rectal temperature with PC and PC+G treatments, respectively, when compared with CON (0.0°C, P\u3c0.05). Overall, PC+G failed to achieve a clear change in cycling performance over CON, but PC showed a possible 2% (30 s, P=0.02) improvement in performance time on climb 2 compared to CON. This improvement was attributed to subjects\u27 lower perception of effort reported over the first 10 km of the trial, despite no clear performance change during this time. No differences were detected in any other physiological measurements throughout the time trial.Conclusions: Despite increasing fluid intake and reducing core temperature, performance and thermoregulatory benefits of a hyperhydration strategy with and without the addition of glycerol, plus practical precooling, were not superior to hyperhydration alone. Further research is warranted to further refine preparation strategies for athletes competing in thermally stressful events to optimize health and maximize performance outcomes

Pathocenosis: A Holistic Approach to Disease Ecology

The History of medicine describes the emergence and recognition of infectious diseases, and human attempts to stem them. It also throws light on the role of changing environmental conditions on disease emergence/re-emergence, establishment and, sometimes, disappearance. However, the dynamics of infectious diseases is also influenced by the relationships between the community of interacting infectious agents present at a given time in a given territory, a concept that Mirko Grmek, an historian of medicine, conceptualized with the word “pathocenosis”. The spatial and temporal evolution of diseases, when observed at the appropriate scales, illustrates how a change in the pathocenosis, whether of “natural” or anthropic origin, can lead to the emergence and spread of diseases

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Mitochondrial targeted catalase suppresses invasive breast cancer in mice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Treatment of invasive breast cancer has an alarmingly high rate of failure because effective targets have not been identified. One potential target is mitochondrial generated reactive oxygen species (ROS) because ROS production has been associated with changes in substrate metabolism and lower concentration of anti-oxidant enzymes in tumor and stromal cells and increased metastatic potential.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Transgenic mice expressing a human catalase gene (mCAT) were crossed with MMTV-PyMT transgenic mice that develop metastatic breast cancer. All mice (33 mCAT positive and 23 mCAT negative) were terminated at 110 days of age, when tumors were well advanced. Tumors were histologically assessed for invasiveness, proliferation and metastatic foci in the lungs. ROS levels and activation status of p38 MAPK were determined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>PyMT mice expressing mCAT had a 12.5 per cent incidence of high histological grade primary tumor invasiveness compared to a 62.5 per cent incidence in PyMT mice without mCAT. The histological grade correlated with incidence of metastasis with 56 per cent of PyMT mice positive for mCAT showing evidence of pulmonary metastasis compared to 85.4 per cent of PyMT mice negative for mCAT with pulmonary metastasis (p ≤ 0.05). PyMT tumor cells expressing mCAT had lower ROS levels and were more resistant to hydrogen peroxide-induced oxidative stress than wild type tumor cells, suggesting that mCAT has the potential of quenching intracellular ROS and subsequent invasive behavior. The metastatic tumor burden in PyMT mice expressing mCAT was 0.1 mm²/cm²of lung tissue compared with 1.3 mm²/cm²of lung tissue in PyMT mice expressing the wild type allele (p ≤ 0.01), indicating that mCAT could play a role in mitigating metastatic tumor progression at a distant organ site. Expression of mCAT in the lungs increased resistance to hydrogen peroxide-induced oxidative stress that was associated with decreased activation of p38MAPK suggesting ROS signaling is dependent on p38MAPK for at least some of its downstream effects.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Targeting catalase within mitochondria of tumor cells and tumor stromal cells suppresses ROS-driven tumor progression and metastasis. Therefore, increasing the antioxidant capacity of the mitochondrial compartment could be a rational therapeutic approach for invasive breast cancer.</p> <p>Please see related commentary article: <url>http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/9/62</url></p

Patients’ Perceptions and Experiences of Familial Hypercholesterolemia, Cascade Genetic Screening and Treatment

Background: Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a serious genetic disorder affecting approximately 1 in every 300 to 500 individuals and is characterised by excessively high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels, substantially increased risk of early-onset coronary heart disease (CHD) and premature mortality. If FH is untreated, it leads to a greater than 50 % risk of CHD in men by the age of 50 and at least 30 % in women by the age of 60. FH can be diagnosed through genetic screening and effectively managed through pharmacological treatment and lifestyle changes. Purpose: Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a genetic health condition that increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. Although FH can be effectively managed with appropriate pharmacological and dietary interventions, FH detection rate through genetic screening remains low. The present study explored perceptions and experiences of FH patients (N = 18) involved in a genetic cascade screening programme. Methods: Face-to-face interviews were conducted to assess patients’ knowledge and understanding of FH, explore factors linked to adherence to health-protective behaviours and examine perceptions of genetic screening. Results: Thematic analysis of interviews revealed four themes: disease knowledge, severity of FH, lifestyle behavioural change and barriers to cascade screening and treatment. Participants recognised FH as a permanent, genetic condition that increased their risk of CHD and premature mortality. Many participants dismissed the seriousness of FH and the importance of lifestyle changes because they perceived it to be effectively managed through medication. Despite positive attitudes toward screening, many participants reported that relatives were reluctant to attend screening due to their relatives’ ‘fatalistic’ outlook or low motivation. Participants believed that they had insufficient authority or control to persuade family members to attend screening and welcomed greater hospital assistance for contact with relatives. Conclusions: Findings support the adoption of direct methods of recruitment to cascade screening led by medical professionals, who were perceived as having greater authority. Other implications included the need for clinicians to provide clear information, particularly to those who are asymptomatic, related to the seriousness of FH and the necessity for adherence to medication and lifestyle changes

Heterogeneous decrease in malaria prevalence in children over a six-year period in south-western Uganda

Malaria is a major public health problem, especially for children. However, recent reports suggest a decline in the malaria burden. The aim of this study was to assess the change in the prevalence of malaria infection among children below five years of age between 2004 and 2010 in a mesoendemic area of Uganda and to analyse the risk factors of malaria infection