Warped Tachyonic Inflation in Type IIB Flux Compactifications and the Open-String Completeness Conjecture

We consider a cosmological scenario within the KKLT framework for moduli stabilization in string theory. The universal open string tachyon of decaying non-BPS D-brane configurations is proposed to drive eternal topological inflation. Flux-induced `warping' can provide the small slow-roll parameters needed for successful inflation. Constraints on the parameter space leading to sufficient number of e-folds, exit from inflation, density perturbations and stabilization of the Kahler modulus are investigated. The conditions are difficult to satisfy in Klebanov-Strassler throats but can be satisfied in T^3 fibrations and other generic Calabi-Yau manifolds. This requires large volume and magnetic fluxes on the D-brane. The end of inflation may or may not lead to cosmic strings depending on the original non-BPS configuration. A careful investigation of initial conditions leading to a phenomenologically viable model for inflation is carried out. The initial conditions are chosen on the basis of Sen's open string completeness conjecture. We find time symmetrical bounce solutions without initial singularities for k=1 FRW models which are correlated with an inflationary period. Singular big-bang/big-crunch solutions also exist but do not lead to inflation. There is an intriguing correlation between having an inflationary universe in 4 dimensions and 6 compact dimensions or a big-crunch singularity and decompactification.Comment: 43 pages, 9 figures. v3: Typos correcte

Segmented YSO scintillation detectors as a new β-implant detection tool for decay spectroscopy in fragmentation facilities

A newly developed segmented YSO scintillator detector was implemented for the first time at the RI-beam Factory at RIKEN Nishina Center as an implantation-decay counter. The results from the experiment demonstrate that the detector is a viable alternative to conventional silicon-strip detectors with its good timing resolution and high detection efficiency for β particles. A Position-Sensitive Photo-Multiplier Tube (PSPMT) is coupled with a 48 × 48 segmented YSO crystal. To demonstrate its capabilities, a known short-lived isomer in Ni and the β decay of Co were measured by implanting those ions into the YSO detector. The half-lives and γ-rays observed in this work are consistent with the known values. The β-ray detection efficiency is more than 80 % for the decay of Co.The present experiment was carried out at the RI Beam Factory operated by RIKEN Nishina Center, RIKEN and CNS, University of Tokyo. This research was supported in part by the Offce of Nuclear Physics, U.S. Department of Energy under Award No. DE-FG02-96ER40983 (UTK)

Anti-corruption Strategies in Afghanistan: An Alternative Approach

© 2016, © 2016 SAGE Publications. Afghanistan is one of the most corrupt countries in the world. This article provides a critical examination of Afghan anticorruption strategies based on formal anticorruption strategy, bureaucratic reform, and counter-narcotics. This article includes reference to some of the opinions of 70 semi-structured interviews conducted by the author in Kabul during May–June 2010 with anticorruption experts, rights-based organizations, civil society groups, ministries, and international and national organizations. The findings are that political interference from Afghan elites preserves corruption and deep roots of patron–client corruption—patronage networks and illicit drug trafficking interests with criminal groups for profitable gain—are difficult to combat with the existing anticorruption strategy. Hence, new approaches need to be attempted, such as, incorporating religion and ethics and empowering local leaders to combat corruption within a sixfold approach which involves (i) raising awareness, (ii) prevention, (iii) prosecution and sanctions, (iv) detection, (v) a collaborative counter-narcotics strategy, and (vi) linking religion

Association of community engagement with vaccination confidence and uptake: A cross-sectional survey in Sierra Leone, 2019

Background The 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic disrupted childhood immunization in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea. After the epidemic, the Government of Sierra Leone prioritized community engagement to increase vaccination confidence and uptake. To support these efforts, we examined potential drivers of vaccination confidence and uptake in Sierra Leone. Methods We conducted a population-based household survey with primary caregivers of children in a birth cohort of 12 to 23 months in four districts with low vaccination coverage in Sierra Leone in 2019. Modified Poisson regression modeling with robust variance estimation was used to examine if perceived community engagement in planning the immunization program in the community was associated with vaccination confidence and having a fully vaccinated child. Results The sample comprised 621 age-eligible children and their caregivers (91% response rate). Half of the caregivers (52%) reported that it usually takes too long to get to the vaccination site, and 36% perceived that health workers expect money for vaccination services that are supposed to be given at no charge. When mothers were the decision-makers of the children’s vaccination, 80% of the children were fully vaccinated versus 69% when fathers were the decision-makers and 56% when other relatives were the decision-makers. Caregivers with high confidence in vaccination were more likely to have fully vaccinated children compared to caregivers with low confidence (78% versus 53%). For example, caregivers who thought vaccines are ‘very much’ safe were more likely to have fully vaccinated children than those who thought vaccines are ‘somewhat’ safe (76% versus 48%). Overall, 53% of caregivers perceived high level of community engagement, 41% perceived medium level of engagement, and 6% perceived low level of engagement. Perceiving high community engagement was associated with expressing high vaccination confidence (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) = 2.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.67-4.04) and having a fully vaccinated child (aPR = 1.67; 95% CI = 1.18-2.38). Conclusions In these four low coverage districts in Sierra Leone, the perceived level of community engagement was strongly associated with vaccination confidence among caregivers and vaccination uptake among children. We have provided exploratory cross-sectional evidence to inform future longitudinal assessments to further investigate the potential causal effect of community engagement on vaccination confidence and uptake

Health Care Utilization During the COVID-19 Pandemic Among Individuals Born Preterm

Importance: Limited data exist on pediatric health care utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic among children and young adults born preterm. Objective: To investigate differences in health care use related to COVID-19 concerns during the pandemic among children and young adults born preterm vs those born at term. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, questionnaires regarding COVID-19 and health care utilization were completed by 1691 mother-offspring pairs from 42 pediatric cohorts in the National Institutes of Health Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes Program. Children and young adults (ages 1-18 years) in these analyses were born between 2003 and 2021. Data were recorded by the August 31, 2021, data-lock date and were analyzed between October 2021 and October 2022. Exposures: Premature birth (<37 weeks' gestation). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was health care utilization related to COVID-19 concerns (hospitalization, in-person clinic or emergency department visit, phone or telehealth evaluations). Individuals born preterm vs term (≥37 weeks' gestation) and differences among preterm subgroups of individuals (<28 weeks', 28-36 weeks' vs ≥37 weeks' gestation) were assessed. Generalized estimating equations assessed population odds for health care used and related symptoms, controlling for maternal age, education, and psychiatric disorder; offspring history of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) or asthma; and timing and age at COVID-19 questionnaire completion. Results: Data from 1691 children and young adults were analyzed; among 270 individuals born preterm, the mean (SD) age at survey completion was 8.8 (4.4) years, 151 (55.9%) were male, and 193 (71.5%) had a history of BPD or asthma diagnosis. Among 1421 comparison individuals with term birth, the mean (SD) age at survey completion was 8.4 (2.4) years, 749 (52.7%) were male, and 233 (16.4%) had a history of BPD or asthma. Preterm subgroups included 159 individuals (58.5%) born at less than 28 weeks' gestation. In adjusted analyses, individuals born preterm had a significantly higher odds of health care utilization related to COVID-19 concerns (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.21-2.38) compared with term-born individuals; similar differences were also seen for the subgroup of individuals born at less than 28 weeks' gestation (aOR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.40-3.29). Maternal history of a psychiatric disorder was a significant covariate associated with health care utilization for all individuals (aOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.17-1.78). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that during the COVID-19 pandemic, children and young adults born preterm were more likely to have used health care related to COVID-19 concerns compared with their term-born peers, independent of a history of BPD or asthma. Further exploration of factors associated with COVID-19-related health care use may facilitate refinement of care models

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

THE RATE OF BINARY BLACK HOLE MERGERS INFERRED FROM ADVANCED LIGO OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING GW150914

A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identi fi ed in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To asse ss the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged con fi gurations over a period of 39 days around the time of t he signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate ( FAR ) of < ́ -- 4.9 10 yr 61 , yielding a p -value for GW150914 of < ́ - 210 7 . Parameter estimation follo w-up on this trigger identi fi es its source as a binary black hole ( BBH ) merger with component masses ( )( ) = - + - + mm M ,36,29 12 4 5 4 4 at redshift = - + z 0.09 0.04 0.03 ( median and 90% credible range ) . Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between – -- 2 53 Gpc yr 31 ( comoving frame ) . Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncerta inty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from – -- 13 600 Gpc yr 31 depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimat es fall in the conservative range – -- 2 600 Gpc yr 31

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing