A system theoretic safety analysis of friendly fire prevention in ground based missile systems

Thesis (S.M. in Engineering and Management)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (page 61).This thesis used Dr. Leveson's STAMP (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Process) model of accident causation to analyze a friendly fire accident that occurred on 22 March 03 between a British Tornado aircraft and a US Patriot Missile battery. This causation model analyzes system constraints, control loops, and process models to identify inadequate control structures leading to hazards and preventative measures that may be taken to reduce the effect of these hazards. By using a system-based causation model like STAMP, rather than a traditional chain of events model, this thesis aimed to identify systemic factors and component interactions that may have contributed to the accident, rather than simply analyzing component failures. Additionally, care was taken to understand the rationale for decisions that were made, rather than assigning blame. The analysis identified a number of areas in which control flaws or inadequacies led to the friendly fire incident. A set of recommendations was developed that may help to prevent similar accidents from occurring in the future.by Scott McCarthy.S.M.in Engineering and Managemen

Study of new systems concepts for a Titan atmospheric probe

Results of a systems concepts study for a Titan Probe were examined. The key tradeoffs performed are described in detail. Mass breakdown of each Probe subsystem or major element were given. The mission analysis performed to determine compliance with the high altitude sampling and descent time requirements are described. The baseline Descent Module design was derived. The element of the Probe System left on the Carrier after separation were described

An experimental study of the near wake of a two-dimensional hypersonic blunt body with mass addition

An experimental investigation of the steady, laminar near-wake flow field of a two-dimensional, adiabatic, circular cylinder with surface mass transfer has been made at a free-stream Mach number of 6.0. The pressure and mass-concentration fields associated with the transfer of argon, nitrogen or helium into the near wake were studied for mass transfer from the forward stagnation region, and from the base. For sufficiently low mass transfer rates from the base, for which a recirculating zone exists, the entire near-wake flow field correlates with the momentum flux, not the mass flux, of the injectant, and the mass-concentration field is determined by counter-current diffusion into the reversed flow. For mass addition from the forward stagnation region, the pressure field is undisturbed and the mass-concentration field is nearly uniform in the region of reversed flow. The axial decay of argon mass concentration in the intermediate wake, downstream of the neck, is explained with the aid of an integral solution in the incompressible plane, from which the location of the virtual origin for the asymptotic far-wake solution has been derived as one result

Impact of baryons on the cluster mass function and cosmological parameter determination

Recent results by the Planck collaboration have shown that cosmological parameters derived from the cosmic microwave background anisotropies and cluster number counts are in tension, with the latter preferring lower values of the matter density parameter, $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$, and power spectrum amplitude, $\sigma_8$. Motivated by this, we investigate the extent to which the tension may be ameliorated once the effect of baryonic depletion on the cluster mass function is taken into account. We use the large-volume Millennium Gas simulations in our study, including one where the gas is pre-heated at high redshift and one where the gas is heated by stars and active galactic nuclei (in the latter, the self-gravity of the baryons and radiative cooling are omitted). In both cases, the cluster baryon fractions are in reasonably good agreement with the data at low redshift, showing significant depletion of baryons with respect to the cosmic mean. As a result, it is found that the cluster abundance in these simulations is around 15 per cent lower than the commonly-adopted fit to dark matter simulations by Tinker et al (2008) for the mass range $10^{14}-10^{14.5}h^{-1} \mathrm{M}_\odot$. Ignoring this effect produces a significant artificial shift in cosmological parameters which can be expressed as $\Delta[\sigma_8(\Omega_\mathrm{m}/0.27)^{0.38}]\simeq -0.03$ at $z=0.17$ (the median redshift of the $\mathit{Planck}$ cluster sample) for the feedback model. While this shift is not sufficient to fully explain the $\mathit{Planck}$ discrepancy, it is clear that such an effect cannot be ignored in future precision measurements of cosmological parameters with clusters. Finally, we outline a simple, model-independent procedure that attempts to correct for the effect of baryonic depletion and show that it works if the baryon-dark matter back-reaction is negligible.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, Accepted by MNRA

The WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey: Direct constraints on blue galaxy intrinsic alignments at intermediate redshifts

Correlations between the intrinsic shapes of galaxy pairs, and between the intrinsic shapes of galaxies and the large-scale density field, may be induced by tidal fields. These correlations, which have been detected at low redshifts (z<0.35) for bright red galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), and for which upper limits exist for blue galaxies at z~0.1, provide a window into galaxy formation and evolution, and are also an important contaminant for current and future weak lensing surveys. Measurements of these alignments at intermediate redshifts (z~0.6) that are more relevant for cosmic shear observations are very important for understanding the origin and redshift evolution of these alignments, and for minimising their impact on weak lensing measurements. We present the first such intermediate-redshift measurement for blue galaxies, using galaxy shape measurements from SDSS and spectroscopic redshifts from the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey. Our null detection allows us to place upper limits on the contamination of weak lensing measurements by blue galaxy intrinsic alignments that, for the first time, do not require significant model-dependent extrapolation from the z~0.1 SDSS observations. Also, combining the SDSS and WiggleZ constraints gives us a long redshift baseline with which to constrain intrinsic alignment models and contamination of the cosmic shear power spectrum. Assuming that the alignments can be explained by linear alignment with the smoothed local density field, we find that a measurement of \sigma_8 in a blue-galaxy dominated, CFHTLS-like survey would be contaminated by at most +/-0.02 (95% confidence level, SDSS and WiggleZ) or +/-0.03 (WiggleZ alone) due to intrinsic alignments. [Abridged]Comment: 18 pages, 12 figures, accepted to MNRAS; v2 has correction to one author's name, NO other changes; v3 has minor changes in explanation and calculations, no significant difference in results or conclusions; v4 has an additional footnote about model interpretation, no changes to data/calculations/result

Poundbury Camp in context – a new perspective on the lives of children from urban and rural Roman England

Objectives The current understanding of child morbidity in Roman England is dominated by studies of single sites/regions. Much of the data are derived from third to fifth century AD Poundbury Camp, Dorchester, Dorset, considered an unusual site due to high levels of non-adult morbidity. There is little understanding of children in rural areas, and whether Poundbury Camp was representative of Romano-British childhood. Materials and methods The study provides the first large scale analysis of child health in urban and rural Roman England, adding to the previously published intra-site analysis of non-adult paleopathology at Poundbury Camp. Age-at-death and pathology prevalence rates were reassessed for 953 non-adults (0–17 years) from five major urban, six minor urban, and four rural sites (first to fifth century AD). The data were compared to the results from 364 non-adults from Poundbury Camp. Results Rural sites demonstrated higher levels of infant burials, and greater prevalence of cribra orbitalia in the 1.1–2.5 year (TPR 64.3%), and 6.6–10.5 year cohorts (TPR 66.7%). Endocranial lesions were more frequent in the minor urban sample (TPR 15.9%). Three new cases of tuberculosis were identified in urban contexts. Vitamin D deficiency was most prevalent at Poundbury Camp (CPR 18.8%), vitamin C deficiency was identified more frequently in rural settlements (CPR 5.9%). Discussion The Poundbury Camp data on morbidity and mortality are not representative of patterns in Roman England and other major urban sites. Rural children suffered from a distinct set of pathologies described as diseases of deprivation, prompting reconsideration of how Romano-British land management affected those at the bottom of the social hierarchy

Slicing The Monoceros Overdensity with Suprime-Cam

We derive distance, density and metallicity distribution of the stellar Monoceros Overdensity (MO) in the outer Milky Way, based on deep imaging with the Subaru Telescope. We applied CMD fitting techniques in three stripes at galactic longitudes: l=130 deg, 150 deg, 170 deg; and galactic latitudes: +15 < b [deg] < +25 . The MO appears as a wall of stars at a heliocentric distance of ~ 10.1\pm0.5 kpc across the observed longitude range with no distance change. The MO stars are more metal rich ([Fe/H] ~ -1.0) than the nearby stars at the same latitude. These data are used to test three different models for the origin of the MO: a perturbed disc model, which predicts a significant drop in density adjacent to the MO that is not seen; a basic flared disc model, which can give a good match to the density profile but the MO metallicity implies the disc is too metal rich to source the MO stars; and a tidal stream model, which bracket the distances and densities we derive for the MO, suggesting that a model can be found that would fully fit the MO data. Further data and modeling will be required to confirm or rule out the MO feature as a stream or as a flaring of the disc.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Non-verbal sound processing in the primary progressive aphasias

Little is known about the processing of non-verbal sounds in the primary progressive aphasias. Here, we investigated the processing of complex non-verbal sounds in detail, in a consecutive series of 20 patients with primary progressive aphasia [12 with progressive non-fluent aphasia; eight with semantic dementia]. We designed a novel experimental neuropsychological battery to probe complex sound processing at early perceptual, apperceptive and semantic levels, using within-modality response procedures that minimized other cognitive demands and matching tests in the visual modality. Patients with primary progressive aphasia had deficits of non-verbal sound analysis compared with healthy age-matched individuals. Deficits of auditory early perceptual analysis were more common in progressive non-fluent aphasia, deficits of apperceptive processing occurred in both progressive non-fluent aphasia and semantic dementia, and deficits of semantic processing also occurred in both syndromes, but were relatively modality specific in progressive non-fluent aphasia and part of a more severe generic semantic deficit in semantic dementia. Patients with progressive non-fluent aphasia were more likely to show severe auditory than visual deficits as compared to patients with semantic dementia. These findings argue for the existence of core disorders of complex non-verbal sound perception and recognition in primary progressive aphasia and specific disorders at perceptual and semantic levels of cortical auditory processing in progressive non-fluent aphasia and semantic dementia, respectively

The effectiveness, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for maltreated children and adolescents: an evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Child maltreatment is a substantial social problem that affects large numbers of children and young people in the UK, resulting in a range of significant short- and long-term psychosocial problems. OBJECTIVES: To synthesise evidence of the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of interventions addressing the adverse consequences of child maltreatment. STUDY DESIGN: For effectiveness, we included any controlled study. Other study designs were considered for economic decision modelling. For acceptability, we included any study that asked participants for their views. PARTICIPANTS: Children and young people up to 24 years 11 months, who had experienced maltreatment before the age of 17 years 11 months. INTERVENTIONS: Any psychosocial intervention provided in any setting aiming to address the consequences of maltreatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Psychological distress [particularly post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety, and self-harm], behaviour, social functioning, quality of life and acceptability. METHODS: Young Persons and Professional Advisory Groups guided the project, which was conducted in accordance with Cochrane Collaboration and NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guidance. Departures from the published protocol were recorded and explained. Meta-analyses and cost-effectiveness analyses of available data were undertaken where possible. RESULTS: We identified 198 effectiveness studies (including 62 randomised trials); six economic evaluations (five using trial data and one decision-analytic model); and 73 studies investigating treatment acceptability. Pooled data on cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) for sexual abuse suggested post-treatment reductions in PTSD [standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.44 (95% CI -4.43 to -1.53)], depression [mean difference -2.83 (95% CI -4.53 to -1.13)] and anxiety [SMD -0.23 (95% CI -0.03 to -0.42)]. No differences were observed for post-treatment sexualised behaviour, externalising behaviour, behaviour management skills of parents, or parental support to the child. Findings from attachment-focused interventions suggested improvements in secure attachment [odds ratio 0.14 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.70)] and reductions in disorganised behaviour [SMD 0.23 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.42)], but no differences in avoidant attachment or externalising behaviour. Few studies addressed the role of caregivers, or the impact of the therapist-child relationship. Economic evaluations suffered methodological limitations and provided conflicting results. As a result, decision-analytic modelling was not possible, but cost-effectiveness analysis using effectiveness data from meta-analyses was undertaken for the most promising intervention: CBT for sexual abuse. Analyses of the cost-effectiveness of CBT were limited by the lack of cost data beyond the cost of CBT itself. CONCLUSIONS: It is not possible to draw firm conclusions about which interventions are effective for children with different maltreatment profiles, which are of no benefit or are harmful, and which factors encourage people to seek therapy, accept the offer of therapy and actively engage with therapy. Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions. LIMITATIONS: Studies were largely conducted outside the UK. The heterogeneity of outcomes and measures seriously impacted on the ability to conduct meta-analyses. FUTURE WORK: Studies are needed that assess the effectiveness of interventions within a UK context, which address the wider effects of maltreatment, as well as specific clinical outcomes. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003889. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Search for Kaluza-Klein Graviton Emission in ppˉp\bar{p} Collisions at s=1.8\sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV using the Missing Energy Signature

We report on a search for direct Kaluza-Klein graviton production in a data sample of 84 ${pb}^{-1}$ of \ppb collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 1.8 TeV, recorded by the Collider Detector at Fermilab. We investigate the final state of large missing transverse energy and one or two high energy jets. We compare the data with the predictions from a $3+1+n$-dimensional Kaluza-Klein scenario in which gravity becomes strong at the TeV scale. At 95% confidence level (C.L.) for $n$=2, 4, and 6 we exclude an effective Planck scale below 1.0, 0.77, and 0.71 TeV, respectively.Comment: Submitted to PRL, 7 pages 4 figures/Revision includes 5 figure