An integrated environmental and human systems modeling framework for Puget Sound restoration planning

Local, state, federal, tribal and private stakeholders have committed significant resources to restoring Puget Sound’s terrestrial-marine ecosystem. Though jurisdictional issues have promoted a fragmented approach to restoration planning, there is growing recognition that a more coordinated systems-based restoration approach is needed to achieve recovery goals. This presentation describes our collaborative effort to develop and apply an integrated environmental and human systems modeling framework for the Puget Sound Basin, inclusive of all marine and land areas (1,020 and 12,680 sq. mi.). Our goal is to establish a whole-basin systems modeling framework that dynamically simulates biophysical interactions and transfers (water, nutrients, contaminants, biota) across terrestrial-marine boundaries. The core environmental models include a terrestrial ecohydrological model (VELMA), an ocean circulation and biogeochemistry model (Salish Sea Model), and an ocean food web model (Atlantis). This environmental subsystem will be linked with an agent-based modeling subsystem (e.g., Envision) that allows human decision-makers to be represented in whole-basin simulations. The integrated environmental and human systems framework aims to facilitate discourse among different stakeholders and decision makers (agents) and enable them play out the ecological, social and economic consequences of alternative ecosystem restoration choices. All of these models are currently being applied in Puget Sound, but they have not yet been integrated. The linked models will better capture the propagation of human impacts throughout the terrestrial-marine ecosystem, and thereby provide a more effective decision support tool for addressing restoration of high priority environmental endpoints, such as the Vital Signs identified by the Puget Sound Partnership (http://www.psp.wa.gov/vitalsigns/). Our overview will include examples of existing stand-alone model applications, and conceptual plans for linking models across terrestrial-marine boundaries. The Puget Sound multi-model framework described here can potentially be expanded to address the entire Salish Sea transboundary ecosystem (https://www.eopugetsound.org/maps/salish-sea-basin-and-water-boundaries)

Stabbing News: Articulating Crime Statistics in the Newsroom

There is a comprehensive body of scholarly work regarding the way media represent crime and how it is constructed in the media narrative as a news item. These works have often suggested that in many cases public anxieties in relation to crime levels are not justified by actual data. However, few works have examined the gathering and dissemination of crime statistics by non-specialist journalists and the way crime statistics are gathered and used in the newsroom. This article seeks to explore in a comparative manner how journalists in newsrooms access and interpret quantitative data when producing stories related to crime. In so doing, the article highlights the problems and limitations of journalists in dealing with crime statistics as a news source, while assessing statistics-related methodologies and skills used in the newsrooms across the United Kingdom when producing stories related to urban crime

The international WAO/EAACI guideline for the management of hereditary angioedema—The 2021 revision and update

Hereditary angioedema (HAE) is a rare and disabling disease for which early diagnosis and effective therapy are critical. This revision and update of the global WAO/EAACI guideline on the diagnosis and management of HAE provides up-to-date guidance for the management of HAE. For this update and revision of the guideline, an international panel of experts reviewed the existing evidence, developed 28 recommendations, and established consensus by an online DELPHI process. The goal of these recommendations and guideline is to help physicians and their patients in making rational decisions in the management of HAE with deficient C1 inhibitor (type 1) and HAE with dysfunctional C1 inhibitor (type 2), by providing guidance on common and important clinical issues, such as: (1) How should HAE be diagnosed? (2) When should HAE patients receive prophylactic on top of on-demand treatment and what treatments should be used? (3) What are the goals of treatment? (4) Should HAE management be different for special HAE patient groups such as children or pregnant/breast-feeding women? and (5) How should HAE patients monitor their disease activity, impact, and control? It is also the intention of this guideline to help establish global standards for the management of HAE and to encourage and facilitate the use of recommended diagnostics and therapies for all patients

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Determination of the strong coupling constant αs from transverse energy–energy correlations in multijet events at s√=8 TeV using the ATLAS detector

Measurements of transverse energy–energy correlations and their associated asymmetries in multi-jet events using the ATLAS detector at the LHC are presented. The data used correspond to s√=8 TeV proton–proton collisions with an integrated luminosity of 20.2 fb−1 . The results are presented in bins of the scalar sum of the transverse momenta of the two leading jets, unfolded to the particle level and compared to the predictions from Monte Carlo simulations. A comparison with next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD is also performed, showing excellent agreement within the uncertainties. From this comparison, the value of the strong coupling constant is extracted for different energy regimes, thus testing the running of αs(μ) predicted in QCD up to scales over 1 TeV . A global fit to the transverse energy–energy correlation distributions yields αs(mZ)=0.1162±0.0011(exp.) +0.0084−0.0070(theo.) , while a global fit to the asymmetry distributions yields a value of αs(mZ)=0.1196±0.0013(exp.) +0.0075−0.0045(theo.)

Measurement of t(t)over-bar normalised multi-differential cross sections in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV, and simultaneous determination of the strong coupling strength, top quark pole mass, and parton distribution functions

Peer reviewe

Search for supersymmetry in events with one lepton and multiple jets in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe

An embedding technique to determine ττ backgrounds in proton-proton collision data

An embedding technique is presented to estimate standard model tau tau backgrounds from data with minimal simulation input. In the data, the muons are removed from reconstructed mu mu events and replaced with simulated tau leptons with the same kinematic properties. In this way, a set of hybrid events is obtained that does not rely on simulation except for the decay of the tau leptons. The challenges in describing the underlying event or the production of associated jets in the simulation are avoided. The technique described in this paper was developed for CMS. Its validation and the inherent uncertainties are also discussed. The demonstration of the performance of the technique is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions collected by CMS in 2017 at root s = 13 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 41.5 fb(-1).Peer reviewe