Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

A Methodological Framework for the Evaluation of Syndromic Surveillance Systems: A Case Study of England

Background: Syndromic surveillance complements traditional public health surveillance by collecting and analysing health indicators in near real time. The rationale of syndromic surveillance is that it may detect health threats faster than traditional surveillance systems permitting more timely, and hence potentially more effective public health action. The effectiveness of syndromic surveillance largely relies on the methods used to detect aberrations. Very few studies have evaluated the performance of syndromic surveillance systems and consequently little is known about the types of events that such systems can and cannot detect. Methods: We introduce a framework for the evaluation of syndromic surveillance systems that can be used in any setting based upon the use of simulated scenarios. For a range of scenarios this allows the time and probability of to be determined and uncertainty is fully incorporated. In addition, we demonstrate how such a framework can model the benefits of increases in the number of centres reporting syndromic data and also determine the minimum size of outbreaks that can or cannot be detected. Here, we demonstrate its utility using simulations of national influenza outbreaks and localised outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis. Results: Influenza outbreaks are consistently detected with larger outbreaks being detected in a more timely manner. Small cryptosporidiosis outbreaks (<1000 symptomatic individuals) are unlikely to be detected. We also demonstrate the advantages of having multiple syndromic data streams (e.g. emergency attendance data, telephone helpline data, general practice consultation data) as different streams are able to detect different types outbreaks with different efficacy (e.g. emergency attendance data are useful for the detection of pandemic influenza but not for outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis). We also highlight that for any one disease, the utility of data streams may vary geographically, and that the detection ability of syndromic surveillance varies seasonally (e.g. an influenza outbreak starting in July is detected sooner than one starting later in the year). We argue that our framework constitutes a useful tool for public health emergency preparedness in multiple settings. Conclusions: The proposed framework allows the exhaustive evaluation of any syndromic surveillance system and constitutes a useful tool for emergency preparedness and response

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Buses, cars, bicycles and walkers the influence of the type of human transport on the flight responses of waterbirds

One way to manage disturbance to waterbirds in natural areas where humans require access is to promote the occurrence of stimuli for which birds tolerate closer approaches, and so cause fewer responses. We conducted 730 experimental approaches to 39 species of waterbird, using five stimulus types (single walker, three walkers, bicycle, car and bus) selected to mimic different human management options available for a controlled access, Ramsar-listed wetland. Across species, where differences existed (56% of 25 cases), motor vehicles always evoked shorter flight-initiation distances (FID) than humans on foot. The influence of stimulus type on FID varied across four species for which enough data were available for complete cross-stimulus analysis. All four varied FID in relation to stimuli, differing in 4 to 7 of 10 possible comparisons. Where differences occurred, the effect size was generally modest, suggesting that managing stimulus type (e.g. by requiring people to use vehicles) may have species-specific, modest benefits, at least for the waterbirds we studied. However, different stimulus types have different capacities to reduce the frequency of disturbance (i.e. by carrying more people) and vary in their capacity to travel around important habita

Selecting Forecasting Methods

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods

Combined Tevatron upper limit on gg->H->W+W- and constraints on the Higgs boson mass in fourth-generation fermion models

Report number: FERMILAB-PUB-10-125-EWe combine results from searches by the CDF and D0 collaborations for a standard model Higgs boson (H) in the process gg->H->W+W- in p=pbar collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV. With 4.8 fb-1 of integrated luminosity analyzed at CDF and 5.4 fb-1 at D0, the 95% Confidence Level upper limit on \sigma(gg->H) x B(H->W+W-) is 1.75 pb at m_H=120 GeV, 0.38 pb at m_H=165 GeV, and 0.83 pb at m_H=200 GeV. Assuming the presence of a fourth sequential generation of fermions with large masses, we exclude at the 95% Confidence Level a standard-model-like Higgs boson with a mass between 131 and 204 GeV.We combine results from searches by the CDF and D0 collaborations for a standard model Higgs boson (H) in the process gg→H→W+W- in pp̅ collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider at √s=1.96  TeV. With 4.8  fb-1 of integrated luminosity analyzed at CDF and 5.4  fb-1 at D0, the 95% confidence level upper limit on σ(gg→H)×B(H→W+W-) is 1.75 pb at mH=120  GeV, 0.38 pb at mH=165  GeV, and 0.83 pb at mH=200  GeV. Assuming the presence of a fourth sequential generation of fermions with large masses, we exclude at the 95% confidence level a standard-model-like Higgs boson with a mass between 131 and 204 GeV.Peer reviewe

Identification and Filtering of Uncharacteristic Noise in the CMS Hadron Calorimeter

VertaisarvioitupeerReviewe

Performance of CMS hadron calorimeter timing and synchronization using test beam, cosmic ray, and LHC beam data

This paper discusses the design and performance of the time measurement technique and of the synchronization systems of the CMS hadron calorimeter. Time measurement performance results are presented from test beam data taken in the years 2004 and 2006. For hadronic showers of energy greater than 100 GeV, the timing resolution is measured to be about 1.2 ns. Time synchronization and out-of-time background rejection results are presented from the Cosmic Run At Four Tesla and LHC beam runs taken in the Autumn of 2008. The inter-channel synchronization is measured to be within ±2 ns

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 Infection in a Long-Distance Migrant Shorebird under Migratory and Non-Migratory States

Corticosterone regulates physiological changes preparing wild birds for migration. It also modulates the immune system and may lead to increased susceptibility to infection, with implications for the spread of pathogens, including highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1. The red knot (Calidris canutus islandica) displays migratory changes in captivity and was used as a model to assess the effect of high plasma concentration of corticosterone on HPAIV H5N1 infection. We inoculated knots during pre-migration (N = 6), fueling (N = 5), migration (N = 9) and post-migration periods (N = 6). Knots from all groups shed similar viral titers for up to 5 days post-inoculation (dpi), peaking at 1 to 3 dpi. Lesions of acute encephalitis, associated with virus replication in neurons, were seen in 1 to 2 knots per group, leading to neurological disease and death at 5 to 11 dpi. Therefore, the risk of HPAIV H5N1 infection in wild birds and of potential transmission between wild birds and poultry may be similar at different times of the year, irrespective of wild birds' migratory status. However, in knots inoculated during the migration period, viral shedding levels positively correlated with pre-inoculation plasma concentration of corticosterone. Of these, knots that did not become productively infected had lower plasma concentration of corticosterone. Conversely, elevated plasma concentration of corticosterone did not result in an increased probability to develop clinical disease. These results suggest that birds with elevated plasma concentration of corticosterone at the time of migration (ready to migrate) may be more susceptible to acquisition of infection and shed higher viral titers—before the onset of clinical disease—than birds with low concentration of corticosterone (not ready for take-off). Yet, they may not be more prone to the development of clinical disease. Therefore, assuming no effect of sub-clinical infection on the likelihood of migratory take-off, this may favor the spread of HPAIV H5N1 by migratory birds over long distances

Toward unsupervised outbreak detection through visual perception of new patterns

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Statistical algorithms are routinely used to detect outbreaks of well-defined syndromes, such as influenza-like illness. These methods cannot be applied to the detection of emerging diseases for which no preexisting information is available.</p> <p>This paper presents a method aimed at facilitating the detection of outbreaks, when there is no a priori knowledge of the clinical presentation of cases.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The method uses a visual representation of the symptoms and diseases coded during a patient consultation according to the International Classification of Primary Care 2^ndversion (ICPC-2). The surveillance data are transformed into color-coded cells, ranging from white to red, reflecting the increasing frequency of observed signs. They are placed in a graphic reference frame mimicking body anatomy. Simple visual observation of color-change patterns over time, concerning a single code or a combination of codes, enables detection in the setting of interest.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The method is demonstrated through retrospective analyses of two data sets: description of the patients referred to the hospital by their general practitioners (GPs) participating in the French Sentinel Network and description of patients directly consulting at a hospital emergency department (HED).</p> <p>Informative image color-change alert patterns emerged in both cases: the health consequences of the August 2003 heat wave were visualized with GPs' data (but passed unnoticed with conventional surveillance systems), and the flu epidemics, which are routinely detected by standard statistical techniques, were recognized visually with HED data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Using human visual pattern-recognition capacities to detect the onset of unexpected health events implies a convenient image representation of epidemiological surveillance and well-trained "epidemiology watchers". Once these two conditions are met, one could imagine that the epidemiology watchers could signal epidemiological alerts, based on "image walls" presenting the local, regional and/or national surveillance patterns, with specialized field epidemiologists assigned to validate the signals detected.</p