Attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years caused by infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and the European Economic Area in 2015: a population-level modelling analysis

Background: Infections due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria are threatening modern health care. However, estimating their incidence, complications, and attributable mortality is challenging. We aimed to estimate the burden of infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria of public health concern in countries of the EU and European Economic Area (EEA) in 2015, measured in number of cases, attributable deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Methods: We estimated the incidence of infections with 16 antibiotic resistance–bacterium combinations from European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) 2015 data that was country-corrected for population coverage. We multiplied the number of bloodstream infections (BSIs) by a conversion factor derived from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control point prevalence survey of health-care-associated infections in European acute care hospitals in 2011–12 to estimate the number of non-BSIs. We developed disease outcome models for five types of infection on the basis of systematic reviews of the literature. Findings: From EARS-Net data collected between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2015, we estimated 671 689 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 583 148–763 966) infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, of which 63·5% (426 277 of 671 689) were associated with health care. These infections accounted for an estimated 33 110 (28 480–38 430) attributable deaths and 874 541 (768 837–989 068) DALYs. The burden for the EU and EEA was highest in infants (aged <1 year) and people aged 65 years or older, had increased since 2007, and was highest in Italy and Greece. Interpretation: Our results present the health burden of five types of infection with antibiotic-resistant bacteria expressed, for the first time, in DALYs. The estimated burden of infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and EEA is substantial compared with that of other infectious diseases, and has increased since 2007. Our burden estimates provide useful information for public health decision-makers prioritising interventions for infectious diseases

Colo-Pro: a pilot randomised controlled trial to compare standard bolus-dosed cefuroxime prophylaxis to bolus-continuous infusion–dosed cefuroxime prophylaxis for the prevention of infections after colorectal surgery

Standard bolus-dosed antibiotic prophylaxis may not inhibit growth of antibiotic resistant colonic bacteria, a cause of SSIs after colorectal surgery. An alternative strategy is continuous administration of antibiotic throughout surgery, maintaining concentrations of antibiotics that inhibit growth of resistant bacteria. This study is a pilot comparing bolus-continuous infusion with bolus-dosed cefuroxime prophylaxis in colorectal surgery. This is a pilot randomised controlled trial in which participants received cefuroxime bolus-infusion (intervention arm) targeting free serum cefuroxime concentrations of 64 mg/L, or 1.5 g cefuroxime as a bolus dose four-hourly (standard arm). Patients in both arms received metronidazole (500 mg intravenously). Eligible participants were adults undergoing colorectal surgery expected to last for over 2 h. Results were analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The study was successfully piloted, with 46% (90/196) of eligible patients recruited and 89% (80/90) of participants completing all components of the protocol. A trialled bolus-continuous dosing regimen was successful in maintaining free serum cefuroxime concentrations of 64 mg/L. No serious adverse reactions were identified. Rates of SSIs (superficial and deep SSIs) were lower in the intervention arm than the standard treatment arm (24% (10/42) vs. 30% (13/43)), as were infection within 30 days of operation (41% (17/43) vs 51% (22/43)) and urinary tract infections (2% (1/42) vs. 9% (4/43)). These infection rates can be used to power future clinical trials. This study demonstrates the feasibility of cefuroxime bolus-continuous infusion of antibiotic prophylaxis trials, and provides safety data for infusions targeting free serum cefuroxime concentrations of 64 mg/L. Trial registration: NCT02445859

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Colo-Pro: a pilot randomised controlled trial to compare standard bolus-dosed cefuroxime prophylaxis to bolus-continuous infusion–dosed cefuroxime prophylaxis for the prevention of infections after colorectal surgery

Standard bolus-dosed antibiotic prophylaxis may not inhibit growth of antibiotic resistant colonic bacteria, a cause of SSIs after colorectal surgery. An alternative strategy is continuous administration of antibiotic throughout surgery, maintaining concentrations of antibiotics that inhibit growth of resistant bacteria. This study is a pilot comparing bolus-continuous infusion with bolus-dosed cefuroxime prophylaxis in colorectal surgery. This is a pilot randomised controlled trial in which participants received cefuroxime bolus-infusion (intervention arm) targeting free serum cefuroxime concentrations of 64 mg/L, or 1.5 g cefuroxime as a bolus dose four-hourly (standard arm). Patients in both arms received metronidazole (500 mg intravenously). Eligible participants were adults undergoing colorectal surgery expected to last for over 2 h. Results were analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The study was successfully piloted, with 46% (90/196) of eligible patients recruited and 89% (80/90) of participants completing all components of the protocol. A trialled bolus-continuous dosing regimen was successful in maintaining free serum cefuroxime concentrations of 64 mg/L. No serious adverse reactions were identified. Rates of SSIs (superficial and deep SSIs) were lower in the intervention arm than the standard treatment arm (24% (10/42) vs. 30% (13/43)), as were infection within 30 days of operation (41% (17/43) vs 51% (22/43)) and urinary tract infections (2% (1/42) vs. 9% (4/43)). These infection rates can be used to power future clinical trials. This study demonstrates the feasibility of cefuroxime bolus-continuous infusion of antibiotic prophylaxis trials, and provides safety data for infusions targeting free serum cefuroxime concentrations of 64 mg/L. Trial registration: NCT02445859

Attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years caused by infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and the European Economic Area in 2015: a population-level modelling analysis

Background Infections due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria are threatening modern health care. However, estimating their incidence, complications, and attributable mortality is challenging. We aimed to estimate the burden of infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria of public health concern in countries of the EU and European Economic Area (EEA) in 2015, measured in number of cases, attributable deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Methods We estimated the incidence of infections with 16 antibiotic resistance-bacterium combinations from European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) 2015 data that was country-corrected for population coverage. We multiplied the number of bloodstream infections (BSIs) by a conversion factor derived from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control point prevalence survey of health-care-associated infections in European acute care hospitals in 2011-12 to estimate the number of non-BSIs. We developed disease outcome models for five types of infection on the basis of systematic reviews of the literature. Findings From EARS-Net data collected between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2015, we estimated 671 689 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 583 148-763 966) infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, of which 63.5% (426 277 of 671 689) were associated with health care. These infections accounted for an estimated 33 110 (28 480-38 430) attributable deaths and 874 541 (768 837-989 068) DALYs. The burden for the EU and EEA was highest in infants (aged &lt;1 year) and people aged 65 years or older, had increased since 2007, and was highest in Italy and Greece. Interpretation Our results present the health burden of five types of infection with antibiotic-resistant bacteria expressed, for the first time, in DALYs. The estimated burden of infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and EEA is substantial compared with that of other infectious diseases, and has increased since 2007. Our burden estimates provide useful information for public health decision-makers prioritising interventions for infectious diseases. Copyright (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license