Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055

Partial Inhibition of Estrogen-Induced Mammary Carcinogenesis in Rats by Tamoxifen: Balance between Oxidant Stress and Estrogen Responsiveness

Epidemiological and experimental evidences strongly support the role of estrogens in breast tumor development. Both estrogen receptor (ER)-dependent and ER-independent mechanisms are implicated in estrogen-induced breast carcinogenesis. Tamoxifen, a selective estrogen receptor modulator is widely used as chemoprotectant in human breast cancer. It binds to ERs and interferes with normal binding of estrogen to ERs. In the present study, we examined the effect of long-term tamoxifen treatment in the prevention of estrogen-induced breast cancer. Female ACI rats were treated with 17β-estradiol (E2), tamoxifen or with a combination of E2 and tamoxifen for eight months. Tissue levels of oxidative stress markers 8-iso-Prostane F2α (8-isoPGF2α), superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), catalase, and oxidative DNA damage marker 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) were quantified in the mammary tissues of all the treatment groups and compared with age-matched controls. Levels of tamoxifen metabolizing enzymes cytochrome P450s as well as estrogen responsive genes were also quantified. At necropsy, breast tumors were detected in 44% of rats co-treated with tamoxifen+E2. No tumors were detected in the sham or tamoxifen only treatment groups whereas in the E2 only treatment group, the tumor incidence was 82%. Co-treatment with tamoxifen decreased GPx and catalase levels; did not completely inhibit E2-mediated oxidative DNA damage and estrogen-responsive genes monoamine oxygenase B1 (MaoB1) and cell death inducing DFF45 like effector C (Cidec) but differentially affected the levels of tamoxifen metabolizing enzymes. In summary, our studies suggest that although tamoxifen treatment inhibits estrogen-induced breast tumor development and increases the latency of tumor development, it does not completely abrogate breast tumor development in a rat model of estrogen-induced breast cancer. The inability of tamoxifen to completely inhibit E2-induced breast carcinogenesis may be because of increased estrogen-mediated oxidant burden

The Atmosphere above Ny-Ålesund – Climate and global warming, ozone and surface UV radiation

The Arctic region is considered to be most sensitive to climate change, with warming in the Arctic occurring considerably faster than the global average due to several positive feedback mechanisms contributing to the “Arctic amplification”. Also the maritime and mountainous climate of Svalbard has undergone changes during the last decades. Here, the focus is set on the current atmospheric boundary conditions for the marine ecosystem in the Kongsfjorden area, discussed in the frame of long-term climatic observations in the larger regional and hemispheric context. During the last century, a general warming is found with temperature increases and precipitation changes varying in strength. During the last decades, a strong seasonality of the warming is observed in the Kongsfjorden area, with the strongest temperature increase occurring during the winter season. The winter warming is related to observed changes in the net longwave radiation. Moreover, changes in the net shortwave are observed during the summer period, attributed to the decrease in reflected radiation caused by the retreating snow cover. Another related aspect of radiation is the intensity of solar ultra-violet radiation that is closely coupled to the abundance of ozone in the column of air overhead. The long term evolution of ozone losses in the Arctic and their connection to climate change are discussed

Differential In Vitro Effects of Intravenous versus Oral Formulations of Silibinin on the HCV Life Cycle and Inflammation

Silymarin prevents liver disease in many experimental rodent models, and is the most popular botanical medicine consumed by patients with hepatitis C. Silibinin is a major component of silymarin, consisting of the flavonolignans silybin A and silybin B, which are insoluble in aqueous solution. A chemically modified and soluble version of silibinin, SIL, has been shown to potently reduce hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA levels in vivo when administered intravenously. Silymarin and silibinin inhibit HCV infection in cell culture by targeting multiple steps in the virus lifecycle. We tested the hepatoprotective profiles of SIL and silibinin in assays that measure antiviral and anti-inflammatory functions. Both mixtures inhibited fusion of HCV pseudoparticles (HCVpp) with fluorescent liposomes in a dose-dependent fashion. SIL inhibited 5 clinical genotype 1b isolates of NS5B RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) activity better than silibinin, with IC50 values of 40–85 µM. The enhanced activity of SIL may have been in part due to inhibition of NS5B binding to RNA templates. However, inhibition of the RdRps by both mixtures plateaued at 43–73%, suggesting that the products are poor overall inhibitors of RdRp. Silibinin did not inhibit HCV replication in subgenomic genotype 1b or 2a replicon cell lines, but it did inhibit JFH-1 infection. In contrast, SIL inhibited 1b but not 2a subgenomic replicons and also inhibited JFH-1 infection. Both mixtures inhibited production of progeny virus particles. Silibinin but not SIL inhibited NF-κB- and IFN-B-dependent transcription in Huh7 cells. However, both mixtures inhibited T cell proliferation to similar degrees. These data underscore the differences and similarities between the intravenous and oral formulations of silibinin, which could influence the clinical effects of this mixture on patients with chronic liver diseases

Comparative transcriptomic analysis reveals similarities and dissimilarities in saccharomyces cerevisiae wine strains response to nitrogen availability

Nitrogen levels in grape-juices are of major importance in winemaking ensuring adequate yeast growth and fermentation performance. Here we used a comparative transcriptome analysis to uncover wine yeasts responses to nitrogen availability during fermentation. Gene expression was assessed in three genetically and phenotypically divergent commercial wine strains (CEG, VL1 and QA23), under low (67 mg/L) and high nitrogen (670 mg/L) regimes, at three time points during fermentation (12h, 24h and 96h). Two-way ANOVA analysis of each fermentation condition led to the identification of genes whose expression was dependent on strain, fermentation stage and on the interaction of both factors. The high fermenter yeast strain QA23 was more clearly distinct from the other two strains, by differential expression of genes involved in flocculation, mitochondrial functions, energy generation and protein folding and stabilization. For all strains, higher transcriptional variability due to fermentation stage was seen in the high nitrogen fermentations. A positive correlation between maximum fermentation rate and the expression of genes involved in stress response was observed. The finding of common genes correlated with both fermentation activity and nitrogen up-take underlies the role of nitrogen on yeast fermentative fitness. The comparative analysis of genes differentially expressed between both fermentation conditions at 12h, where the main difference was the level of nitrogen available, showed the highest variability amongst strains revealing strain-specific responses. Nevertheless, we were able to identify a small set of genes whose expression profiles can quantitatively assess the common response of the yeast strains to varying nitrogen conditions. The use of three contrasting yeast strains in gene expression analysis prompts the identification of more reliable, accurate and reproducible biomarkers that will facilitate the diagnosis of deficiency of this nutrient in the grape-musts and the development of strategies to optimize yeast performance in industrial fermentations

The benzene metabolite para-benzoquinone is genotoxic in human, phorbol-12-acetate-13-myristate induced, peripheral blood mononuclear cells at low concentrations

Benzene is one of the most prominent occupational and environmental pollutants. The substance is a proven human carcinogen that induces hematologic malignancies in humans, probably at even low doses. Yet knowledge of the mechanisms leading to benzene-induced carcinogenesis is still incomplete. Benzene itself is not genotoxic. The generation of carcinogenic metabolites involves the production of oxidized intermediates such as catechol, hydroquinone and para-benzoquinone (p-BQ) in the liver. Further activation to the ultimate carcinogenic intermediates is most probably catalyzed by myeloperoxidase (MPO). Yet the products of the MPO pathway have not been identified. If an oxidized benzene metabolite such as p-BQ was actually the precursor for the ultimate carcinogenic benzene metabolite and further activation proceeds via MPO mediated reactions, it should be possible to activate p-BQ to a genotoxic compound in vitro. We tested this hypothesis with phorbol-12-acetate-13-myristate (PMA) activated peripheral blood cells exposed to p-BQ, using the cytokinesis-block micronucleus test. Addition of 20–28 ng/ml PMA caused a significant increase of micronuclei at low and non-cytotoxic p-BQ concentrations between 0.04 and 0.2 μg/ml (0.37–1.85 μM). Thus with PMA or p-BQ alone no reproducible elevation of micronuclei was seen up to toxic concentrations. PMA and p-BQ induce micronuclei when administered jointly. Our results add further support to the hypothesis that MPO is a key enzyme in the activation of benzene

Sea-ice dynamics in an Arctic coastal polynya during the past 6500 years

The production of high-salinity brines during sea-ice freezing in circum-arctic coastal polynyas is thought to be part of northern deep water formation as it supplies additional dense waters to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system. To better predict the effect of possible future summer ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean on global climate, it is important to improve our understanding of how climate change has affected sea-ice and brine formation, and thus finally dense water formation during the past. Here, we show temporal coherence between sea-ice conditions in a key Arctic polynya (Storfjorden, Svalbard) and patterns of deep water convection in the neighbouring Nordic Seas over the last 6500 years. A period of frequent sea-ice melting and freezing between 6.5 and 2.8 ka BP coincided with enhanced deep water renewal in the Nordic Seas. Near-permanent sea-ice cover and low brine rejection after 2.8 ka BP likely reduced the overflow of high-salinity shelf waters, concomitant with a gradual slow down of deep water convection in the Nordic Seas, which occurred along with a regional expansion in sea-ice and surface water freshening. The Storfjorden polynya sea-ice factory restarted at ~0.5 ka BP, coincident with renewed deep water penetration to the Arctic and climate amelioration over Svalbard. The identified synergy between Arctic polynya sea-ice conditions and deep water convection during the present interglacial is an indication of the potential consequences for ocean ventilation during states with permanent sea-ice cover or future Arctic ice-free conditions

Phenotypic Landscape of Saccharomyces cerevisiae during Wine Fermentation: Evidence for Origin-Dependent Metabolic Traits

The species Saccharomyces cerevisiae includes natural strains, clinical isolates, and a large number of strains used in human activities. The aim of this work was to investigate how the adaptation to a broad range of ecological niches may have selectively shaped the yeast metabolic network to generate specific phenotypes. Using 72 S. cerevisiae strains collected from various sources, we provide, for the first time, a population-scale picture of the fermentative metabolic traits found in the S. cerevisiae species under wine making conditions. Considerable phenotypic variation was found suggesting that this yeast employs diverse metabolic strategies to face environmental constraints. Several groups of strains can be distinguished from the entire population on the basis of specific traits. Strains accustomed to growing in the presence of high sugar concentrations, such as wine yeasts and strains obtained from fruits, were able to achieve fermentation, whereas natural yeasts isolated from “poor-sugar” environments, such as oak trees or plants, were not. Commercial wine yeasts clearly appeared as a subset of vineyard isolates, and were mainly differentiated by their fermentative performances as well as their low acetate production. Overall, the emergence of the origin-dependent properties of the strains provides evidence for a phenotypic evolution driven by environmental constraints and/or human selection within S. cerevisiae

DNA damage and repair in endometrial cancer in correlation with the hOGG1 and RAD51 genes polymorphism

The cellular reaction to the DNA-damaging agents may modulate individual’s cancer susceptibility. This reaction is mainly determined by the efficacy of DNA repair, which in turn, may be influenced by the variability of DNA repair genes, expressed by their polymorphism. The hOGG1 gene encodes a glycosylase of base excision repair and RAD51 specifies a key protein in homologues recombination repair. Both proteins can be involved in the repair of DNA lesions, which are known to contribute to endometrial cancer. In the present work we determined the extent of basal DNA damage and the efficacy of removal of DNA damage induced by hydrogen peroxide and N-methyl-N′-nitro N-nitrosoguanidyne (MNNG) in peripheral blood lymphocytes of 30 endometrial cancer patients and 30 individuals without cancer. The results from DNA damage and repair study were correlated with the genotypes of two common polymorphisms of the hOGG1 and RAD51 genes: a G>C transversion at 1245 position of the hOGG1 gene producing a Ser → Cys substitution at the codon 326 (the Ser326Cys polymorphism) and a G>C substitution at 135 position of the RAD51 gene (the 135G>C polymorphism). DNA damage and repair were evaluated by alkaline single cell gel electrophoresis and genotypes were determined by restriction fragment length polymorphism PCR. We observed a strong association between endometrial cancer and the C/C genotype of the 135G>C polymorphism of the RAD51 gene. Moreover, there was a strong correlation between that genotype and endometrial cancer occurrence in subjects with a high level of basal DNA damage. We did not observe any correlation between the Ser326Cys polymorphism of the hOGG1 gene and endometrial cancer. Our result suggest that the 135G>C polymorphism of the RAD51 gene may be linked to endometrial cancer and can be considered as an additional marker of this disease

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state