Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055

Expression variability of co-regulated genes differentiates Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains

Background: Saccharomyces cerevisiae (Baker’s yeast) is found in diverse ecological niches and is characterized by high adaptive potential under challenging environments. In spite of recent advances on the study of yeast genome diversity, little is known about the underlying gene expression plasticity. In order to shed new light onto this biological question, we have compared transcriptome profiles of five environmental isolates, clinical and laboratorial strains at different time points of fermentation in synthetic must medium, during exponential and stationary growth phases. Results: Our data unveiled diversity in both intensity and timing of gene expression. Genes involved in glucose metabolism and in the stress response elicited during fermentation were among the most variable. This gene expression diversity increased at the onset of stationary phase (diauxic shift). Environmental isolates showed lower average transcript abundance of genes involved in the stress response, assimilation of nitrogen and vitamins, and sulphur metabolism, than other strains. Nitrogen metabolism genes showed significant variation in expression among the environmental isolates. Conclusions: Wild type yeast strains respond differentially to the stress imposed by nutrient depletion, ethanol accumulation and cell density increase, during fermentation of glucose in synthetic must medium. Our results support previous data showing that gene expression variability is a source of phenotypic diversity among closely related organisms.Fundação para a Ciência e TecnologiaThe authors wish to thank Adega Cooperativa da Bairrada, Cantanhede, Portugal, for providing the commercial strains

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state

Comparative transcriptomic analysis reveals similarities and dissimilarities in saccharomyces cerevisiae wine strains response to nitrogen availability

Nitrogen levels in grape-juices are of major importance in winemaking ensuring adequate yeast growth and fermentation performance. Here we used a comparative transcriptome analysis to uncover wine yeasts responses to nitrogen availability during fermentation. Gene expression was assessed in three genetically and phenotypically divergent commercial wine strains (CEG, VL1 and QA23), under low (67 mg/L) and high nitrogen (670 mg/L) regimes, at three time points during fermentation (12h, 24h and 96h). Two-way ANOVA analysis of each fermentation condition led to the identification of genes whose expression was dependent on strain, fermentation stage and on the interaction of both factors. The high fermenter yeast strain QA23 was more clearly distinct from the other two strains, by differential expression of genes involved in flocculation, mitochondrial functions, energy generation and protein folding and stabilization. For all strains, higher transcriptional variability due to fermentation stage was seen in the high nitrogen fermentations. A positive correlation between maximum fermentation rate and the expression of genes involved in stress response was observed. The finding of common genes correlated with both fermentation activity and nitrogen up-take underlies the role of nitrogen on yeast fermentative fitness. The comparative analysis of genes differentially expressed between both fermentation conditions at 12h, where the main difference was the level of nitrogen available, showed the highest variability amongst strains revealing strain-specific responses. Nevertheless, we were able to identify a small set of genes whose expression profiles can quantitatively assess the common response of the yeast strains to varying nitrogen conditions. The use of three contrasting yeast strains in gene expression analysis prompts the identification of more reliable, accurate and reproducible biomarkers that will facilitate the diagnosis of deficiency of this nutrient in the grape-musts and the development of strategies to optimize yeast performance in industrial fermentations

Sea-ice dynamics in an Arctic coastal polynya during the past 6500 years

The production of high-salinity brines during sea-ice freezing in circum-arctic coastal polynyas is thought to be part of northern deep water formation as it supplies additional dense waters to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation system. To better predict the effect of possible future summer ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean on global climate, it is important to improve our understanding of how climate change has affected sea-ice and brine formation, and thus finally dense water formation during the past. Here, we show temporal coherence between sea-ice conditions in a key Arctic polynya (Storfjorden, Svalbard) and patterns of deep water convection in the neighbouring Nordic Seas over the last 6500 years. A period of frequent sea-ice melting and freezing between 6.5 and 2.8 ka BP coincided with enhanced deep water renewal in the Nordic Seas. Near-permanent sea-ice cover and low brine rejection after 2.8 ka BP likely reduced the overflow of high-salinity shelf waters, concomitant with a gradual slow down of deep water convection in the Nordic Seas, which occurred along with a regional expansion in sea-ice and surface water freshening. The Storfjorden polynya sea-ice factory restarted at ~0.5 ka BP, coincident with renewed deep water penetration to the Arctic and climate amelioration over Svalbard. The identified synergy between Arctic polynya sea-ice conditions and deep water convection during the present interglacial is an indication of the potential consequences for ocean ventilation during states with permanent sea-ice cover or future Arctic ice-free conditions

Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science

Why a chapter on Perspectives and Integration in SOLAS Science in this book? SOLAS science by its nature deals with interactions that occur: across a wide spectrum of time and space scales, involve gases and particles, between the ocean and the atmosphere, across many disciplines including chemistry, biology, optics, physics, mathematics, computing, socio-economics and consequently interactions between many different scientists and across scientific generations. This chapter provides a guide through the remarkable diversity of cross-cutting approaches and tools in the gigantic puzzle of the SOLAS realm. Here we overview the existing prime components of atmospheric and oceanic observing systems, with the acquisition of ocean–atmosphere observables either from in situ or from satellites, the rich hierarchy of models to test our knowledge of Earth System functioning, and the tremendous efforts accomplished over the last decade within the COST Action 735 and SOLAS Integration project frameworks to understand, as best we can, the current physical and biogeochemical state of the atmosphere and ocean commons. A few SOLAS integrative studies illustrate the full meaning of interactions, paving the way for even tighter connections between thematic fields. Ultimately, SOLAS research will also develop with an enhanced consideration of societal demand while preserving fundamental research coherency. The exchange of energy, gases and particles across the air-sea interface is controlled by a variety of biological, chemical and physical processes that operate across broad spatial and temporal scales. These processes influence the composition, biogeochemical and chemical properties of both the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers and ultimately shape the Earth system response to climate and environmental change, as detailed in the previous four chapters. In this cross-cutting chapter we present some of the SOLAS achievements over the last decade in terms of integration, upscaling observational information from process-oriented studies and expeditionary research with key tools such as remote sensing and modelling. Here we do not pretend to encompass the entire legacy of SOLAS efforts but rather offer a selective view of some of the major integrative SOLAS studies that combined available pieces of the immense jigsaw puzzle. These include, for instance, COST efforts to build up global climatologies of SOLAS relevant parameters such as dimethyl sulphide, interconnection between volcanic ash and ecosystem response in the eastern subarctic North Pacific, optimal strategy to derive basin-scale CO2 uptake with good precision, or significant reduction of the uncertainties in sea-salt aerosol source functions. Predicting the future trajectory of Earth’s climate and habitability is the main task ahead. Some possible routes for the SOLAS scientific community to reach this overarching goal conclude the chapter

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

The genome of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus

We report the sequence and analysis of the 814-megabase genome of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, a model for developmental and systems biology. The sequencing strategy combined whole-genome shotgun and bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) sequences. This use of BAC clones, aided by a pooling strategy, overcame difficulties associated with high heterozygosity of the genome. The genome encodes about 23,300 genes, including many previously thought to be vertebrate innovations or known only outside the deuterostomes. This echinoderm genome provides an evolutionary outgroup for the chordates and yields insights into the evolution of deuterostomes

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk.

Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or  ≥90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention

Partial Inhibition of Estrogen-Induced Mammary Carcinogenesis in Rats by Tamoxifen: Balance between Oxidant Stress and Estrogen Responsiveness

Epidemiological and experimental evidences strongly support the role of estrogens in breast tumor development. Both estrogen receptor (ER)-dependent and ER-independent mechanisms are implicated in estrogen-induced breast carcinogenesis. Tamoxifen, a selective estrogen receptor modulator is widely used as chemoprotectant in human breast cancer. It binds to ERs and interferes with normal binding of estrogen to ERs. In the present study, we examined the effect of long-term tamoxifen treatment in the prevention of estrogen-induced breast cancer. Female ACI rats were treated with 17β-estradiol (E2), tamoxifen or with a combination of E2 and tamoxifen for eight months. Tissue levels of oxidative stress markers 8-iso-Prostane F2α (8-isoPGF2α), superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), catalase, and oxidative DNA damage marker 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) were quantified in the mammary tissues of all the treatment groups and compared with age-matched controls. Levels of tamoxifen metabolizing enzymes cytochrome P450s as well as estrogen responsive genes were also quantified. At necropsy, breast tumors were detected in 44% of rats co-treated with tamoxifen+E2. No tumors were detected in the sham or tamoxifen only treatment groups whereas in the E2 only treatment group, the tumor incidence was 82%. Co-treatment with tamoxifen decreased GPx and catalase levels; did not completely inhibit E2-mediated oxidative DNA damage and estrogen-responsive genes monoamine oxygenase B1 (MaoB1) and cell death inducing DFF45 like effector C (Cidec) but differentially affected the levels of tamoxifen metabolizing enzymes. In summary, our studies suggest that although tamoxifen treatment inhibits estrogen-induced breast tumor development and increases the latency of tumor development, it does not completely abrogate breast tumor development in a rat model of estrogen-induced breast cancer. The inability of tamoxifen to completely inhibit E2-induced breast carcinogenesis may be because of increased estrogen-mediated oxidant burden