Beyond probability-impact matrices in project risk management: A quantitative methodology for risk prioritisation.

Los directores de proyectos que se ocupan de la gestión de riesgos a menudo se enfrentan a la difícil tarea de determinar la importancia relativa de las diversas fuentes de riesgo que afectan al proyecto. Esta priorización es crucial para dirigir los esfuerzos de gestión para garantizar una mayor rentabilidad del proyecto. Las matrices de riesgos son herramientas ampliamente reconocidas por académicos y profesionales de diversos sectores para evaluar y clasificar los riesgos según su probabilidad de ocurrencia y su impacto en los objetivos del proyecto. Sin embargo, la literatura existente destaca varias limitaciones para utilizar la matriz de riesgos. En respuesta a las debilidades de su uso, este artículo propone un enfoque novedoso para priorizar los riesgos del proyecto. La simulación Monte Carlo (MCS) se utiliza para realizar una priorización cuantitativa de riesgos con el software de simulación MCSimulRisk. Junto con la definición de las actividades del proyecto, la simulación incluye los riesgos identificados modelando su probabilidad e impacto en el costo y la duración. Con esta novedosa metodología se proporciona una evaluación cuantitativa del impacto de cada riesgo, medido por el efecto que tendría sobre la duración del proyecto y su coste total. Esto permite diferenciar los riesgos críticos según su impacto en la duración del proyecto, que puede diferir si se toma el coste como objetivo prioritario. Esta propuesta es interesante para los gestores de proyectos porque, por un lado, conocerán el impacto absoluto de cada riesgo en la duración de su proyecto y los objetivos de costes y, por otro lado, podrán discriminar los impactos de cada riesgo de forma independiente en la duración. objetivo y el objetivo de costes.The project managers who deal with risk management are often faced with the difficult task of determining the relative importance of the various sources of risk that affect the project. This prioritisation is crucial to direct management efforts to ensure higher project profit- ability. Risk matrices are widely recognised tools by academics and practitioners in various sectors to assess and rank risks according to their likelihood of occurrence and impact on project objectives. However, the existing literature highlights several limitations to use the risk matrix. In response to the weaknesses of its use, this paper proposes a novel approach for prioritising project risks. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to perform a quantitative prioritisation of risks with the simulation software MCSimulRisk. Together with the definition of project activities, the simulation includes the identified risks by modelling their probability and impact on cost and duration. With this novel methodology, a quantitative assessment of the impact of each risk is provided, as measured by the effect that it would have on project duration and its total cost. This allows the differentiation of critical risks according to their impact on project duration, which may differ if cost is taken as a priority objective. This proposal is interesting for project managers because they will, on the one hand, know the absolute impact of each risk on their project duration and cost objectives and, on the other hand, be able to discriminate the impacts of each risk independently on the duration objective and the cost objective.This research has been partially funded by the Regional Government of Castile and Leon (Spain) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF, FEDER) with grant VA180P20

On the project risk baseline: Integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling

Producción CientíficaObtaining a viable schedule baseline that meets all project constraints is one of the main issues for project managers. The literature on this topic focuses mainly on methods to obtain schedules that meet resource restrictions and, more recently, financial limitations. The methods provide different viable schedules for the same project, and the solutions with the shortest duration are considered the best-known schedule for that project. However, no tools currently select which schedule best performs in project risk terms. To bridge this gap, this paper aims to propose a method for selecting the project schedule with the highest probability of meeting the deadline of several alternative schedules with the same duration. To do so, we propose integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling by quantifying the risk of several execution alternatives for the same project. The proposed method, tested with a well-known repository for schedule benchmarking, can be applied to any project type to help managers to select the project schedules from several alternatives with the same duration, but the lowest risk

Characterization of a clinical olfactory test with an artificial nose

Clinical olfactory tests are used to address hyposmia/anosmia levels in patients with different types of olfactory impairments. Typically, a given test is employed clinically and then replaced by a new one after a certain period of use which can range from days to several months. There is a need to assess control quality of these tests and also for a procedure to quantify their degradation over time. In this paper we propose a protocol to employ low-cost artificial noses for the quantitative characterization of olfactory tests used in clinical studies. In particular, we discuss a preliminary study on the Connecticut Chemosensorial Clinical Research Center Test kit which shows that some odorants, as sensed by an artificial nose, seem to degrade while others are potentiated as the test ages. We also discuss the need to establish a map of correspondence between human and machine olfaction when artificial noses are used to characterize or compare human smell performance in research and clinical studies

Peatonalización y nueva sociabilidad en los centros de Sevilla y Málaga

De entre todas las políticas de intervención urbanística, la peatonalización es sin duda una de las que suscita más debate ciudadano, antes, durante y después de habilitar ciertos espacios para el acceso preferente de los peatones, en detrimento de los vehículos. Los procesos de peatonalización llevados a cabo en los últimos años en los centros históricos de Sevilla y Málaga, son un claro exponente de una tendencia urbanística generalizada en toda Europa, pero que presenta sus lógicas singularidades, derivadas del contexto y de los actores que intervienen en cada lugar. Con el objeto de conocer el alcance y las consecuencias de estas intervenciones, hemos llevado a cabo una investigación socioantropológica durante el año 2008 centrada en varios espacios recientemente peatonalizados de estas dos ciudades (la plaza del Carbón, la calle Larios y la plaza de la Constitución en Málaga, la Avenida de la Constitución y la Alfalfa en Sevilla). Esta comunicación presenta algunos de los resultados del estudio, centrándose en la sociabilidad y los usos instaurados en estos espacios.Universidad Pablo de OlavideMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación CSO2009-06819-EUniversidad de Granada 1975-200

New Business Models for Sustainable Spare Parts Logistics: A Case Study

Producción CientíficaAdditive manufacturing of spare parts significantly impacts industrial, social, and environmental aspects. However, a literature review shows that: (i) academic papers on the adoption of additive manufacturing have focused mainly on large companies; (ii) the methods required by SMEs to adopt new technologies differ from those employed by large companies; and (iii) recent studies suggest that a suitable way to help small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to adopt new additive manufacturing technologies from the academic world is by presenting case studies in which SMEs are involved. Given the increasing number of global SMEs (i.e., SMEs that manufacture locally and sell globally), we claim that these companies need to be assisted in adopting spare-parts additive manufacturing for the sake of resource and environmental sustainability. To bridge this gap, the purpose of this article is to present a case study approach that shows how a digital supply chain for spare parts has the potential to bring about changes in business models with significant benefits for both global SMEs (more effective logistic management), customers (response time), and the environment (reduced energy, emissions, raw materials, and waste).Junta de Castilla y León - Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (grant VA049P17

Photonic microfluidic technologies for phytoplankton research

Phytoplankton is a crucial component for the correct functioning of different ecosystems, climate regulation and carbon reduction. Being at least a quarter of the biomass of the world’s vegetation, they produce approximately 50% of atmospheric O2 and remove nearly a third of the anthropogenic carbon released into the atmosphere through photosynthesis. In addition, they support directly or indirectly all the animals of the ocean and freshwater ecosystems, being the base of the food web. The importance of their measurement and identification has increased in the last years, becoming an essential consideration for marine management. The gold standard process used to identify and quantify phytoplankton is manual sample collection and microscopy-based identification, which is a tedious and time-consuming task and requires highly trained professionals. Microfluidic Lab-on-a-Chip technology represents a potential technical solution for environmental monitoring, for example, in situ quantifying toxic phytoplankton. Its main advantages are miniaturisation, portability, reduced reagent/sample consumption and cost reduction. In particular, photonic microfluidic chips that rely on optical sensing have emerged as powerful tools that can be used to identify and analyse phytoplankton with high specificity, sensitivity and throughput. In this review, we focus on recent advances in photonic microfluidic technologies for phytoplankton research. Different optical properties of phytoplankton, fabrication and sensing technologies will be reviewed. To conclude, current challenges and possible future directions will be discussed.This work was supported by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and Agencia Estatal de Investigación (PID2019-107270RB-C21/AIE/10.13039/501100011033. J.F.A. received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades of Spain under Juan de la Cierva Incorporación grant

Density estimation of the main structuring sessile species in underwater marine caves with a deep learning approach

Monitoring marine biodiversity is a challenge in some vulnerable and difficult-to-access habitats, such as underwater caves. Underwater caves are a great focus of biodiversity, concentrating a large number of species in their environment. However, most of the sessile species that live on the rocky walls are very vulnerable, and they are often threatened by different pressures. The use of these spaces as a destination for recreational divers can cause different impacts on the benthic habitat. In this work, we propose a methodology based on video recordings of cave walls and image analysis with deep learning algorithms to estimate the spatial density of structuring species in a study area. We propose a combination of automatic frame overlap detection, estimation of the actual extent of surface cover, and semantic segmentation of the main 10 species of corals and sponges to obtain species density maps. These maps can be the data source for monitoring biodiversity over time. In this paper, we analyzed the performance of three different semantic segmentation algorithms and backbones for this task and found that the Mask R-CNN model with the Xception101 backbone achieves the best accuracy, with an average segmentation accuracy of 82%.This work was supported by the Organismo Autónomo de Parques Nacionales, Ministerio para Figure 7. Relative abundance of species. 10 la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico, Gobierno de España, Project VirtualMAR (codes 2470-S/2017 and 2493-S/2017); by IP INTEMARES project (LIFE15 IPE/ES/000012); by the R+D project PID2019-107270RB-C21 (funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033); by Plan Nacional de I+D+I; and by Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Subdirección General de Redes y Centros de Investigación Cooperativa, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades

Expression and activity profiles of DPP IV/CD26 and NEP/CD10 glycoproteins in the human renal cancer are tumor-type dependent

[Background] Cell-surface glycoproteins play critical roles in cell-to-cell recognition, signal transduction and regulation, thus being crucial in cell proliferation and cancer etiogenesis and development. DPP IV and NEP are ubiquitous glycopeptidases closely linked to tumor pathogenesis and development, and they are used as markers in some cancers. In the present study, the activity and protein and mRNA expression of these glycoproteins were analysed in a subset of clear-cell (CCRCC) and chromophobe (ChRCC) renal cell carcinomas, and in renal oncocytomas (RO).[Methods] Peptidase activities were measured by conventional enzymatic assays with fluorogen-derived substrates. Gene expression was quantitatively determined by qRT-PCR and membrane-bound protein expression and distribution analysis was performed by specific immunostaining.Peer reviewe

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks