Model Informed Drug Development and Precision Dosing for Drug-Drug-Gene-Interactions: Application of Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling

The global demand for pharmaceuticals is continuously growing. As a result, one can observe an increase in adverse drug reactions, which pose a critical risk to patients. The primary triggers for adverse drug reactions are drug-drug- and drug-gene-interactions. Model-informed drug discovery and development as well as model-informed precision dosing can help to mitigate the risks of drug-drug and drug-gene interactions. Thus, this work aimed to improve and to apply physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling strategies in the context of model-informed drug discovery and development as well as model-informed precision dosing. For this purpose, best practices for data digitization as an essential step in the development process of most physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models have been established. Moreover, models for zoptarelin doxorubicin and simvastatin were developed and evaluated. The zoptarelin doxorubicin model was used to guide the development process of this drug. In contrast, the simvastatin model was utilized in a drug-drug-gene interaction network to generate 10368 dose recommendations for different interaction scenarios, which were made available in a digital decision support system. In conclusion, the work can be seen as a beacon project to illustrate how physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling of drug-drug and drug-gene interactions can be applied in model-informed drug discovery and development as well as in model-informed precision dosing.Der globale Arzneimittelbedarf steigt kontinuierlich an. Infolgedessen kommt es vermehrt zu unerwünschten Arzneimittelwirkungen, die eine Gefahr für Patienten darstellen. Eine wichtige Rolle beim Auftreten unerwünschter Arzneimittelwirkungen spielen Arzneimittel-Arzneimittel- und Arzneimittel-Gen-Wechselwirkungen. Um das Risiko solcher Wechselwirkungen zu minimieren, kann die modellgestützte Arzneimittelentwicklung und Präzisionsdosierung angewendet werden. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, physiologie-basierte pharmakokinetische Modelle zum Zweck der modellgestützten Arzneimittelentwicklung und Präzisionsdosierung einzusetzen. Dafür wurde die Datendigitalisierung als wesentlicher Bestandteil der Entwicklung neuer physiologie-basierter pharmakokinetischer Modelle untersucht. Außerdem wurden Modelle für Zoptarelin Doxorubicin und Simvastatin entwickelt. Das Zoptarelin Doxorubicin Modell wurde verwendet, um die Entwicklung dieses Medikaments zu unterstützen. Mittels des Simvastatin Modells wurden in einem Interaktionsnetzwerk 10368 Dosisempfehlungen für verschiedene Szenarien generiert und in einem digitalen Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem verfügbar gemacht. Zusammenfassend kann die Arbeit als Leuchtturmprojekt gesehen werden, das zeigt, wie die physiologie-basierte pharmakokinetische Modellierung von Arzneimittel-Arzneimittel- und Arzneimittel-Gen-Wechselwirkungen in der modellgestützte Arzneimittelentwicklung und Präzisionsdosierung angewendet werden kann

Physiologically Based Precision Dosing Approach for Drug-Drug-Gene Interactions: A Simvastatin Network Analysis

Drug‐drug interactions (DDIs) and drug‐gene interactions (DGIs) are well known mediators for adverse drug reactions (ADRs), which are among the leading causes of death in many countries. Because physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling has demonstrated to be a valuable tool to improve pharmacotherapy affected by DDIs or DGIs, it might also be useful for precision dosing in extensive interaction network scenarios. The presented work proposes a novel approach to extend the prediction capabilities of PBPK modeling to complex drug‐drug‐gene interaction (DDGI) scenarios. Here, a whole‐body PBPK network of simvastatin was established, including three polymorphisms (SLCO1B1 (rs4149056), ABCG2 (rs2231142), and CYP3A5 (rs776746)) and four perpetrator drugs (clarithromycin, gemfibrozil, itraconazole, and rifampicin). Exhaustive network simulations were performed and ranked to optimize 10,368 DDGI scenarios based on an exposure marker cost function. The derived dose recommendations were translated in a digital decision support system, which is available at simvastatin.precisiondosing.de. Although the network covers only a fraction of possible simvastatin DDGIs, it provides guidance on how PBPK modeling could be used to individualize pharmacotherapy in the future. Furthermore, the network model is easily extendable to cover additional DDGIs. Overall, the presented work is a first step toward a vision on comprehensive precision dosing based on PBPK models in daily clinical practice, where it could drastically reduce the risk of ADRs

Data Digitizing: Accurate and Precise Data Extraction for Quantitative Systems Pharmacology and Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling

In quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling, data digitizing is a valuable tool to extract numerical information from published data presented as graphs. To quantify their relevance, a literature search revealed a remarkable mean increase of 16% per year in publications citing digitizing software together with QSP or PBPK. Accuracy, precision, confounder influence, and variability were investigated using scaled median symmetric accuracy (ζ), thus finding excellent accuracy (mean ζ = 0.99%). Although significant, no relevant confounders were found (mean ζ ± SD circles = 0.69% ± 0.68% vs. triangles = 1.3% ± 0.62%). Analysis of 181 literature peak plasma concentration values revealed a considerable discrepancy between reported and post hoc digitized data with 85% having ζ > 5%. Our findings suggest that data digitizing is precise and important. However, because the greatest pitfall comes from pre-existing errors, we recommend always making published data available as raw values

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Metoprolol Enantiomers and α-Hydroxymetoprolol to Describe CYP2D6 Drug-Gene Interactions

The beta-blocker metoprolol (the sixth most commonly prescribed drug in the USA in 2017) is subject to considerable drug–gene interaction (DGI) effects caused by genetic variations of the CYP2D6 gene. CYP2D6 poor metabolizers (5.7% of US population) show approximately five-fold higher metoprolol exposure compared to CYP2D6 normal metabolizers. This study aimed to develop a whole-body physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict CYP2D6 DGIs with metoprolol. The metoprolol (R)- and (S)-enantiomers as well as the active metabolite α-hydroxymetoprolol were implemented as model compounds, employing data of 48 different clinical studies (dosing range 5–200 mg). To mechanistically describe the effect of CYP2D6 polymorphisms, two separate metabolic CYP2D6 pathways (α-hydroxylation and O-demethylation) were incorporated for both metoprolol enantiomers. The good model performance is demonstrated in predicted plasma concentration–time profiles compared to observed data, goodness-of-fit plots, and low geometric mean fold errors of the predicted AUClast (1.27) and Cmax values (1.23) over all studies. For DGI predictions, 18 out of 18 DGI AUClast ratios and 18 out of 18 DGI Cmax ratios were within two-fold of the observed ratios. The newly developed and carefully validated model was applied to calculate dose recommendations for CYP2D6 polymorphic patients and will be freely available in the Open Systems Pharmacology repository

A Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model of Ketoconazole and Its Metabolites as Drug–Drug Interaction Perpetrators

The antifungal ketoconazole, which is mainly used for dermal infections and treatment of Cushing’s syndrome, is prone to drug–food interactions (DFIs) and is well known for its strong drug– drug interaction (DDI) potential. Some of ketoconazole’s potent inhibitory activity can be attributed to its metabolites that predominantly accumulate in the liver. This work aimed to develop a wholebody physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of ketoconazole and its metabolites for fasted and fed states and to investigate the impact of ketoconazole’s metabolites on its DDI potential. The parent–metabolites model was developed with PK-Sim® and MoBi® using 53 plasma concentration-time profiles. With 7 out of 7 (7/7) DFI AUClast and DFI Cmax ratios within two-fold of observed ratios, the developed model demonstrated good predictive performance under fasted and fed conditions. DDI scenarios that included either the parent alone or with its metabolites were simulated and evaluated for the victim drugs alfentanil, alprazolam, midazolam, triazolam, and digoxin. DDI scenarios that included all metabolites as reversible inhibitors of CYP3A4 and P-gp performed best: 26/27 of DDI AUClast and 21/21 DDI Cmax ratios were within two-fold of observed ratios, while DDI models that simulated only ketoconazole as the perpetrator underperformed: 12/27 DDI AUClast and 18/21 DDI Cmax ratios were within the success limits

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio : a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and nonHDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results: Since similar to 1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at similar to 0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as similar to 0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to similar to 26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.Peer reviewe

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe