Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Clustering of (auto)immune diseases with early-onset and complicated inflammatory bowel disease

Studies in adult inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients have highlighted associations with genetic and serologic markers and suggest an association with disease location, behaviour and natural history. Data on patients with Crohn's disease (CD, n = 80), ulcerative colitis (UC, n = 15) and indeterminate colitis (n = 4) were collected. All individuals were analysed for CARD15 R702W, G908R and L1007fs for toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) Asp299Gly and for anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies (ASCA) and atypical perinuclear antineutrophil cytoplasmatic antibodies (pANCA). After a mean of 10.7 years of follow up, the disease behaviour changed in 45% of CD patients, in contrast to disease location, where only 12.5% had a change (p < 0.001). The younger the age at diagnosis, the more patients presented with colonic disease (p = 0.021). Also, more TLR4 Asp299 Gly variants were found when the age at onset was younger (p = 0.018). A large number of concomitant diseases were observed. There was no difference in the prevalence of TLR4 variants nor ASCA or pANCA between the patients with or without concomitant diseases. Patients who progressed more often needed surgery as compared to patients who remained free of stenosing or fistulising disease (27/32 or 84% versus 3/35 or 8.6%, respectively, p < 0.0001) and more often had concomitant immune-mediated diseases and a trend for more seroreactivity towards ASCA

Glycemic load, glycemic index, and pancreatic cancer risk in the Netherlands Cohort Study

Background: Recent studies of pancreatic cancer suggest a role for hyperinsulinemia in carcinogenesis. Because insulin is secreted in response to elevated blood glucose concentrations, dietary factors that increase these concentrations may be important in pancreatic carcinogenesis. Objective: The objective was to examine prospectively the relation between pancreatic cancer risk and dietary glycemic load (GL), overall glycemic index (GI), and intake of total carbohydrates and mono- and disaccharides. Design: The Netherlands Cohort Study consisted of 120 852 men and women who completed a baseline questionnaire in 1986. After 13.3 y of follow-up, 408 pancreatic cancer cases were detected, 66% of which were microscopically confirmed. A validated 150-item food-frequency questionnaire, completed at baseline, was used to calculate carbohydrate and mono- and disaccharide intakes and the GL and GI of the diet. Results: Dietary GL, GI, or intake of carbohydrates and mono- and disaccharides were not associated with pancreatic cancer risk in this cohort. Also, the associations were not modified by sex. Our results did not change after the analysis was restricted to microscopically confirmed pancreatic cancer cases or after individuals who reported a history of diabetes at baseline were excluded from the analyses. Conclusions: Overall, our findings do not support the hypothesis that GL, GI, or intake of carbohydrates and mono- and disaccharides are positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk. This is in agreement with previous prospective studies that investigated the relation between GL and GI and pancreatic cancer risk. © 2008 American Society for Nutrition

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions