Geodetic fault slip rates on active faults in the Baza sub-Basin (SE Spain): Insights for seismic hazard assessment

One of the most significant parameters for seismic hazard assessment analyses is the fault slip rate. The combination of both geological (long-term) and geodetic (short-term) data offers a more complete characterization of the seismic potential of active faults. Moreover, geodetic data are also a helpful tool for the analysis of geodynamic processes. In this work, we present the results of a local GPS network from the Baza sub-Basin (SE Spain). This network, which includes six sites, was established in 2008 and has been observed for seven years. For the first time, we obtain short-term slip rates for the two active faults in this area. For the normal Baza Fault, we estimate slip rates ranging between 0.3 ± 0.3 mm/yr and 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr. For the strike-slip Galera Fault, we quantify the slip rate as 0.5 ± 0.3 mm/yr. Our GPS study shows a discrepancy for the Baza Fault between the short-term slip rates and previously reported long-term rates. This discrepancy indicates that the fault could be presently in a period with a displacement rate higher than the mean of the magnitude 6 seismic cycle. Moreover, the velocity vectors that we obtained also show the regional tectonic significance of the Baza Fault, as this structure accommodates one-third of the regional extension of the Central Betic Cordillera. Our GPS-related slip rates form the basis for future seismic hazard analysis in this area. Our results have further implications, as they indicate that the Baza and Galera Faults are kinematically coherent and they divide the Baza sub-Basin into two tectonic blocks. This points to a likely physical link between the Baza and Galera Faults; hence, a potential complex rupture involving both faults should be considered in future seismic hazard assessment studies.We acknowledge the comments of Editor Prof. Irina M. Artemieva and two anonymous reviewers, which significantly improved the quality of this paper. This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and University (Research Projects: RTI2018-100737-BI00 and CGL2016-80687-R), the University of Alicante (Research Project: VIGROB053), the University of Jaén (PAIUJA 2019-2020 and Programa Operativo FEDER Andalucía 2014-2020 - call made by UJA 2018), the University of Granada (B-RNM-301-UGR18) and the Junta de Andalucía regional government (RNM148, RNM282, and RNM370 and P18-RT-3275 research groups). We thank all observers who collected the data of survey-mode GPS measurements

Crustal velocity field in Baza and Galera faults: A new estimation from GPS position time series in 2009 - 2018 time span

The Baza and Galera faults are two active geologic structures located in the central area of the Betic Cordillera (Southern Spain). The goal of our research is to constrain the activity of this faults from high quality GPS measurements to obtain precise deformation rates. In 2008 a GPS survey – mode network was installed to monitor this area. In previous works, we presented a velocity field based on the analysis of some GPS campaigns. Here we show the new results computed from nine GPS campaigns in the timespan 2009-2018. The measurements were done in September 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018. The data process and analysis were performed in Precise Point Positioning by using GIPSYX 1.6 software. GIPSY is a GNSS-inferred positioning software developed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Then, the new estimation of the crustal velocity field is computed from the IGb14 time series by SARI software. The model applied to the original time series, using weighted least squares, consists of an intercept, a site rate and an offset to account for an antenna change. The error term is composed of white noise and temporally correlated random error. The colored noise is described by a random-walk process. We have assumed a typical magnitude for this process of 1.0 mm/√yr. Finally, we discuss the implications of the new results for the tectonic setting and seismic hazard assessment of this key tectonic area of the Betic Cordillera.This work has been funded by Programa Operativo FEDER Andalucía 2014-2020 - call made by University of Jaen in 2018, Ref. 1263446, POAIUJA 2021/2022, CEACTEMA, and RNM148 and RNM282 research groups of Junta de Andalucía

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research.Peer reviewe

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Antenatal counselling for families whose fetus has neurological anomalies: Part two –risks of adverse outcome in common abnormalities

Following diagnosis of a fetal neurological abnormality, prospective parents want to know the best and worst-case scenarios and an estimation of the risk for their fetus having atypical developmental outcome. The literature on developmental outcomes for fetal neurological abnormalities is poor: studies are characterised by retrospective design, small sample size, often no standardised assessment of development, and differing definitions of abnormality. This paper provides an aide-memoir on the risks of adverse neurodevelopmental outcome for ventriculomegaly, cortical abnormalities, microcephaly, macrocephaly, agenesis of the corpus callosum, posterior fossa abnormalities, and myelomeningocele to assist health care professionals in counselling. The data in this paper should be used alongside recommendations on counselling and service design in paper one to provide antenatal counselling