Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39.4-40.7) to 50.3% (50.0-50.5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46.3% (95% UI 46.1-46.5) in 2017, compared with 28.7% (28.5-29.0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88.6% (95% UI 87.2-89.7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76.1% (95% UI 71.6-80.7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53.9% (50.6-59.6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Rör på er! : Användning av rörelsesensorer i smartphones för att skapa fysisk aktivitet i en föreläsningspublik

It takes only about 10-30 minutes into a sedentary lecture before audience attention is decreasing. There are different ways to avoid this. One is to use a web-based audience response systems (ARS), where the audience interact with the lecturer through their smartphones, and another is to take short breaks, including physical movements, to re-energize both the body and the brain. In this study, these two methods have been combined and explored. By utilizing the motion sensors that are integrated in almost every smartphone, a physical activity for a lecture audience was created and implemented in the ARS platform Mentimeter. The proof of concept was evaluated in two lectures, based on O’Brien and Toms' model of engagement. The aim was to explore the prerequisites, both in terms of design and implementation, for creating an engaging physical activity within a lecture audience, using smartphone motion sensors to capture movements and a web-based ARS to present the data. The results showed that the proof of concept was perceived as fun and engaging, where important factors for creating engagement were found to be competition and a balanced level of task difficulty. The study showed that feedback is complicated when it comes to motion gesture interactions, and that there are limitations as to what can be done with smartphone motion sensors using web technologies. There is great potential for further research in how to design an energizing lecture activity using smartphones, as well as in exploring the area of feedback in motion gesture interaction.Efter bara 10-30 minuter på en stillasittande föreläsning börjar publiken tappa i koncentration. Det går undvika på olika sätt. Ett sätt kan vara genom att låta publiken bli mer aktiva i föreläsningen med hjälp av ett webb-baserat röstningsverktyg, där de använder sina smartphones för att interagera med föreläsaren, och ett annat sätt kan vara att ta korta pauser där publiken får röra på sig för att syresätta hjärna och kropp. I den här studien kombinerades dessa två metoder genom att utnyttja rörelsesensorerna som finns inbyggda i de flesta smartphones. En fysisk aktivitet för en föreläsningspublik togs fram och implementerades i ARS-plattformen Mentimeter och konceptet utvärderades sedan under två föreläsningar baserat på O’Brien and Toms' modell för engagemang. Målet var att utforska förutsättningarna, både inom teknik och design, för att skapa en engagerande fysisk aktivitet för en föreläsningspublik, där smartphonens rörelsesensorer används för att fånga rörelse och ett webb-baserat röstningssystem för att presentera data. Resultatet visade att konceptet upplevdes som kul och engagerande, där viktiga faktorer för att skapa engagemang fanns i att ha ett tävlingsmoment och en lagom svårighetsgrad. Studien visade även att feedback är komplicerat när det kommer till rörelseinteraktion, och att det finns begräsningarna i vad som kan göras med rörelsesensorerna i en smartphone med hjälp av webbteknologi. Det finns stor potential för ytterligare undersökningar både inom hur man kan skapa interaktiva aktiviteter på föreläsningar som ger publiken mer energi, men också inom området kring feedback för rörelseinteraktion

Deciphering the recent phylogenetic expansion of the originally deeply rooted Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineage 7

Background A deeply rooted phylogenetic lineage of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) termed lineage 7 was discovered in Ethiopia. Whole genome sequencing of 30 lineage 7 strains from patients in Ethiopia was performed. Intra-lineage genome variation was defined and unique characteristics identified with a focus on genes involved in DNA repair, recombination and replication (3R genes). Results More than 800 mutations specific to M. tuberculosis lineage 7 strains were identified. The proportion of non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs) in 3R genes was higher after the recent expansion of M. tuberculosis lineage 7 strain started. The proportion of nsSNPs in genes involved in inorganic ion transport and metabolism was significantly higher before the expansion began. A total of 22346 bp deletions were observed. Lineage 7 strains also exhibited a high number of mutations in genes involved in carbohydrate transport and metabolism, transcription, energy production and conversion. Conclusions We have identified unique genomic signatures of the lineage 7 strains. The high frequency of nsSNP in 3R genes after the phylogenetic expansion may have contributed to recent variability and adaptation. The abundance of mutations in genes involved in inorganic ion transport and metabolism before the expansion period may indicate an adaptive response of lineage 7 strains to enable survival, potentially under environmental stress exposure. As lineage 7 strains originally were phylogenetically deeply rooted, this may indicate fundamental adaptive genomic pathways affecting the fitness of M. tuberculosis as a species

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Clinical characterization and the mutation spectrum in Swedish adenomatous polyposis families

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The dominantly inherited condition familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) is caused by germline mutations in the <it>APC </it>gene. Finding the causative mutations has great implications for the families. Correlating the genotypes to the phenotypes could help to improve the diagnosis and follow-up of patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Mutation screening of <it>APC </it>and the clinical characterization of 96 unrelated FAP patients from the Swedish Polyposis Registry was performed. In addition to generally used mutation screening methods, analyses of splicing-affecting mutations and investigations of the presence of low-frequency mutation alleles, indicating mosaics, have been performed, as well as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction to detect lowered expression of <it>APC</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty-one different <it>APC </it>mutations in 81 of the 96 families were identified and 27 of those are novel. We have previously shown that 6 of the 96 patients carried biallelic <it>MUTYH </it>mutations. The 9 mutation-negative cases all display an attenuated or atypical phenotype. Probands with a genotype (codon 1250–1464) predicting a severe phenotype had a median age at diagnosis of 21.8 (range, 11–49) years compared with 34.4 (range, 14–57) years among those with mutations outside this region (<it>P </it>< 0.017). Dense polyposis (> 1000) occurred in 75% of the probands with a severe phenotype compared with 30% in those with mutations outside this region. The morbidity in colorectal cancer among probands was 25% at a mean age of 37.5 years and 29% at a mean age of 46.6 years.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Using a variety of mutation-detection techniques, we have achieved a 100% detection frequency in classical FAP. Probands with <it>APC </it>mutations outside codon 1250–1464, although exhibiting a less-severe phenotype, are at high risk of having a colorectal cancer at diagnosis indicating that age at diagnosis is as important as the severity of the disease for colorectal cancer morbidity.</p