Estimation of error rate for linear discriminant functions by resampling: Non-Gaussian populations

AbstractThis article presents simulation results comparing various resampling estimators of classification error rate for linear discriminant type classification algorithms. Three non-Gaussian multivariate populations are studied namely, exponential, Cauchy and uniform. Simulations are conducted for small sample sizes, two-class and three-class problems and 2-D, 3-D and 5-D distributions. Estimation procedures and sample sizes are the same as in our previous study of Gaussian populations; again 200 bootstrap replications are used for each simulation trial. For exponential and uniform distributions the 0.632 estimator generally performs best. However, for Cauchy distributions the convex bootstrap and the e0 often outperform the 0.632 estimator

Martensitic transition and magnetoresistance in a Cu-Al-Mn shape memory alloy. Influence of aging

We have studied the effect of ageing within the miscibility gap on the electric, magnetic and thermodynamic properties of a non-stoichiometric Heusler Cu-Al-Mn shape-memory alloy, which undergoes a martensitic transition from a $bcc$-based ($\beta$-phase) towards a close-packed structure ($M$-phase). Negative magnetoresistance which shows an almost linear dependence on the square of magnetization with different slopes in the $M$- and $\beta$-phases, was observed. This magnetoresistive effect has been associated with the existence of Mn-rich clusters with the Cu$_2$AlMn-structure. The effect of an applied magnetic field on the martensitic transition has also been studied. The entropy change between the $\beta$- and $M$-phases shows negligible dependence on the magnetic field but it decreases significantly with annealing time within the miscibility gap. Such a decrease is due to the increasing amount of Cu$_2$MnAl-rich domains that do not transform martensitically.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in PR

SL(2,R)/U(1) Supercoset and Elliptic Genera of Non-compact Calabi-Yau Manifolds

We first discuss the relationship between the SL(2;R)/U(1) supercoset and N=2 Liouville theory and make a precise correspondence between their representations. We shall show that the discrete unitary representations of SL(2;R)/U(1) theory correspond exactly to those massless representations of N=2 Liouville theory which are closed under modular transformations and studied in our previous work hep-th/0311141. It is known that toroidal partition functions of SL(2;R)/U(1) theory (2D Black Hole) contain two parts, continuous and discrete representations. The contribution of continuous representations is proportional to the space-time volume and is divergent in the infinite-volume limit while the part of discrete representations is volume-independent. In order to see clearly the contribution of discrete representations we consider elliptic genus which projects out the contributions of continuous representations: making use of the SL(2;R)/U(1), we compute elliptic genera for various non-compact space-times such as the conifold, ALE spaces, Calabi-Yau 3-folds with A_n singularities etc. We find that these elliptic genera in general have a complex modular property and are not Jacobi forms as opposed to the cases of compact Calabi-Yau manifolds.Comment: 39 pages, no figure; v2 references added, minor corrections; v3 typos corrected, to appear in JHEP; v4 typos corrected in eqs. (3.22) and (3.44

Total Cross Section Measurements with pi-, Sigma- and Protons on Nuclei and Nucleons around 600 GeV/c

Total cross sections for Sigma- and pi- on beryllium, carbon, polyethylene and copper as well as total cross sections for protons on beryllium and carbon have been measured in a broad momentum range around 600GeV/c. These measurements were performed with a transmission technique adapted to the SELEX hyperon-beam experiment at Fermilab. We report on results obtained for hadron-nucleus cross sections and on results for sigma_tot(Sigma- N) and sigma_tot(pi- N), which were deduced from nuclear cross sections.Comment: 42 pages, submitted to Nucl.Phys.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Peer reviewe