Computing the Expected Value of Sample Information Efficiently: Practical Guidance and Recommendations for Four Model-Based Methods

Value of information (VOI) analyses can help policy makers make informed decisions about whether to conduct and how to design future studies. Historically a computationally expensive method to compute the expected value of sample information (EVSI) restricted the use of VOI to simple decision models and study designs. Recently, 4 EVSI approximation methods have made such analyses more feasible and accessible. Members of the Collaborative Network for Value of Information (ConVOI) compared the inputs, the analyst's expertise and skills, and the software required for the 4 recently developed EVSI approximation methods. Our report provides practical guidance and recommendations to help inform the choice between the 4 efficient EVSI estimation methods. More specifically, this report provides: (1) a step-by-step guide to the methods' use, (2) the expertise and skills required to implement the methods, and (3) method recommendations based on the features of decision-analytic problems

U.S. medical resident familiarity with national tuberculosis guidelines

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The ability of medical residents training at U.S. urban medical centers to diagnose and manage tuberculosis cases has important public health implications. We assessed medical resident knowledge about tuberculosis diagnosis and early management based on American Thoracic Society guidelines.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 20-question tuberculosis knowledge survey was administered to 131 medical residents during a single routinely scheduled teaching conference at four different urban medical centers in Baltimore and Philadelphia. Survey questions were divided into 5 different subject categories. Data was collected pertaining to institution, year of residency training, and self-reported number of patients managed for tuberculosis within the previous year. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to detect differences in median percent of questions answered correctly based on these variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The median percent of survey questions answered correctly for all participating residents was 55%. Medical resident knowledge about tuberculosis did not improve with increasing post-graduate year of training or greater number of patients managed for tuberculosis within the previous year. Common areas of knowledge deficiency included the diagnosis and management of latent tuberculosis infection (median percent correct, 40.7%), as well as the interpretation of negative acid-fast sputum smear samples.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Many medical residents lack adequate knowledge of recommended guidelines for the management of tuberculosis. Since experience during training influences future practice pattterns, education of medical residents on guidelines for detection and early management of tuberculosis may be important for future improvements in national tuberculosis control strategies.</p

Has the DOTS Strategy Improved Case Finding or Treatment Success? An Empirical Assessment

Background: Nearly fifteen years after the start of WHO's DOTS strategy, tuberculosis remains a major global health problem. Given the lack of empirical evidence that DOTS reduces tuberculosis burden, considerable debate has arisen about its place in the future of global tuberculosis control efforts. An independent evaluation of DOTS, one of the most widely-implemented and longest-running interventions in global health, is a prerequisite for meaningful improvements to tuberculosis control efforts, including WHO's new Stop TB Strategy. We investigate the impact of the expansion of the DOTS strategy on tuberculosis case finding and treatment success, using only empirical data. Methods and Findings: We study the effect of DOTS using time-series cross-sectional methods. We first estimate the impact of DOTS expansion on case detection, using reported case notification data and controlling for other determinants of change in notifications, including HIV prevalence, GDP, and country-specific effects. We then estimate the effect of DOTS expansion on treatment success. DOTS programme variables had no statistically significant impact on case detection in a wide range of models and specifications. DOTS population coverage had a significant effect on overall treatment success rates, such that countries with full DOTS coverage benefit from at least an 18% increase in treatment success (95% CI: 5–31%). Conclusions: The DOTS technical package improved overall treatment success. By contrast, DOTS expansion had no effect on case detection. This finding is less optimistic than previous analyses. Better epidemiological and programme data would facilitate future monitoring and evaluation efforts

Inhibition of cerebrovascular raf activation attenuates cerebral blood flow and prevents upregulation of contractile receptors after subarachnoid hemorrhage

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Late cerebral ischemia carries high morbidity and mortality after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) due to reduced cerebral blood flow (CBF) and the subsequent cerebral ischemia which is associated with upregulation of contractile receptors in the vascular smooth muscle cells (SMC) via activation of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK)1/2 signal pathway. We hypothesize that SAH initiates cerebrovascular ERK1/2 activation, resulting in receptor upregulation. The raf inhibitor will inhibit the molecular events upstream ERK1/2 and may provide a therapeutic window for treatment of cerebral ischemia after SAH.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here we demonstrate that SAH increases the phosphorylation level of ERK1/2 in cerebral vessels and reduces the neurology score in rats in additional with the CBF measured by an autoradiographic method. The intracisternal administration of SB-386023-b, a specific inhibitor of raf, given 6 h after SAH, aborts the receptor changes and protects the brain from the development of late cerebral ischemia at 48 h. This is accompanied by reduced phosphorylation of ERK1/2 in cerebrovascular SMC. SAH per se enhances contractile responses to endothelin-1 (ET-1), 5-carboxamidotryptamine (5-CT) and angiotensin II (Ang II), upregulates ET_B, 5-HT_1Band AT₁receptor mRNA and protein levels. Treatment with SB-386023-b given as late as at 6 h but not at 12 h after the SAH significantly decreased the receptor upregulation, the reduction in CBF and the neurology score.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results provide evidence for a role of the ERK1/2 pathway in regulation of expression of cerebrovascular SMC receptors. It is suggested that raf inhibition may reduce late cerebral ischemia after SAH and provides a realistic time window for therapy.</p

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

A Mycobacterium tuberculosis cluster demonstrating the use of genotyping in urban tuberculosis control

Background: DNA fingerprinting of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates offers better opportunities to study links between tuberculosis (TB) cases and can highlight relevant issues in urban TB control in low-endemic countries. Methods: A medium-sized molecular cluster of TB cases with identical DNA fingerprints was used for the development of a visual presentation of epidemiologic links between cases. Results: Of 32 cases, 17 (53%) were linked to the index case, and 11 (34%) to a secondary case. The remaining four (13%) could not be linked and were classified as possibly caused by the index patient. Of the 21 cases related to the index case, TB developed within one year of the index diagnosis in 11 patients (52%), within one to two years in four patients (19%), and within two to five years in six patients (29%). Conclusion: Cluster analysis underscored several issues for TB control in an urban setting, such as the recognition of the outbreak, the importance of reinfections, the impact of delayed diagnosis, the contribution of pub-related transmissions and its value for decision-making to extend contact investigations. Visualising cases in a cluster diagram was particularly useful in finding transmission locations and the similarities and links between patients

Using ELISPOT to Expose False Positive Skin Test Conversion in Tuberculosis Contacts

BACKGROUND: Repeat tuberculin skin tests may be false positive due to boosting of waned immunity to past mycobacterial exposure. We evaluated whether an ELISPOT test could identify tuberculosis (TB) contacts with boosting of immunity to non-tuberculous mycobacterial exposure. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted tuberculin and ELISPOT tests in 1665 TB contacts: 799 were tuberculin test negative and were offered a repeat test after three months. Those with tuberculin test conversion had an ELISPOT, chest X-ray and sputum analysis if appropriate. We compared converters with non-converters, assessed the probability of each of four combinations of ELISPOT results over the two time points and estimated boosting with adjustment for ELISPOT sensitivity and specificity. 704 (72%) contacts had a repeat tuberculin test; 176 (25%) had test conversion, which increased with exposure to a case (p = 0.002), increasing age (p = 0.0006) and BCG scar (p = 0.06). 114 tuberculin test converters had ELISPOT results: 16(14%) were recruitment positive/follow-up positive, 9 (8%) positive/negative, 34 (30%) negative/positive, and 55 (48%) were negative/negative. There was a significant non-linear effect of age for ELISPOT results in skin test converters (p = 0.038). Estimates of boosting ranged from 32%–41% of skin test converters with increasing age. Three converters were diagnosed with TB, two had ELISPOT results: both were positive, including one at recruitment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We estimate that approximately one third of tuberculin skin test conversion in Gambian TB case contacts is due to boosting of immunity to non-tuberculous mycobacterial exposure. Further longitudinal studies are required to confirm whether ELISPOT can reliably identify case contacts with tuberculin test conversion that would benefit most from prophylactic treatment

Novel Structurally Designed Vaccine for S. aureus α-Hemolysin: Protection against Bacteremia and Pneumonia

Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) is a human pathogen associated with skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) and life threatening sepsis and pneumonia. Efforts to develop effective vaccines against S. aureus have been largely unsuccessful, in part due to the variety of virulence factors produced by this organism. S. aureus alpha-hemolysin (Hla) is a pore-forming toxin expressed by most S. aureus strains and reported to play a key role in the pathogenesis of SSTI and pneumonia. Here we report a novel recombinant subunit vaccine candidate for Hla, rationally designed based on the heptameric crystal structure. This vaccine candidate, denoted AT-62aa, was tested in pneumonia and bacteremia infection models using S. aureus strain Newman and the pandemic strain USA300 (LAC). Significant protection from lethal bacteremia/sepsis and pneumonia was observed upon vaccination with AT-62aa along with a Glucopyranosyl Lipid Adjuvant-Stable Emulsion (GLA-SE) that is currently in clinical trials. Passive transfer of rabbit immunoglobulin against AT-62aa (AT62-IgG) protected mice against intraperitoneal and intranasal challenge with USA300 and produced significant reduction in bacterial burden in blood, spleen, kidney, and lungs. Our Hla-based vaccine is the first to be reported to reduce bacterial dissemination and to provide protection in a sepsis model of S. aureus infection. AT62-IgG and sera from vaccinated mice effectively neutralized the toxin in vitro and AT62-IgG inhibited the formation of Hla heptamers, suggesting antibody-mediated neutralization as the primary mechanism of action. This remarkable efficacy makes this Hla-based vaccine a prime candidate for inclusion in future multivalent S. aureus vaccine. Furthermore, identification of protective epitopes within AT-62aa could lead to novel immunotherapy for S. aureus infection

Global plagues and the Global Fund: Challenges in the fight against HIV, TB and malaria

BACKGROUND: Although a grossly disproportionate burden of disease from HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria remains in the Global South, these infectious diseases have finally risen to the top of the international agenda in recent years. Ideal strategies for combating these diseases must balance the advantages and disadvantages of 'vertical' disease control programs and 'horizontal' capacity-building approaches. DISCUSSION: The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) represents an important step forward in the struggle against these pathogens. While its goals are laudable, significant barriers persist. Most significant is the pitiful lack of funds committed by world governments, particularly those of the very G8 countries whose discussions gave rise to the Fund. A drastic scaling up of resources is the first clear requirement for the GFATM to live up to the international community's lofty intentions. A directly related issue is that of maintaining a strong commitment to the treatment of the three diseases along with traditional prevention approaches, with the ensuing debates over providing affordable access to medications in the face of the pharmaceutical industry's vigorous protection of patent rights. SUMMARY: At this early point in the Fund's history, it remains to be seen how these issues will be resolved at the programming level. Nevertheless, it is clear that significant structural changes are required in such domains as global spending priorities, debt relief, trade policy, and corporate responsibility. HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria are global problems borne of gross socioeconomic inequality, and their solutions require correspondingly geopolitical solutions