Trends in, projections of, and inequalities in reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health service coverage in Vietnam 2000-2030: A Bayesian analysis at national and sub-national levels

Background: To assess the reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) service coverage in Vietnam with trends in 2000-2014, projections and probability of achieving targets in 2030 at national and sub-national levels; and to analyze the socioeconomic, regional and urban-rural inequalities in RMNCH service indicators. Methods: We used national population-based datasets of 44,624 households in Vietnam from 2000 to 2014. We applied Bayesian regression models to estimate the trends in and projections of RMNCH indicators and the probabilities of achieving the 2030 targets. Using the relative index, slope index, and concentration index of inequality, we examined the patterns and trends in RMNCH coverage inequality. Findings: We projected that 9 out of 17 health service indicators (53%) would likely achieve the 2030 targets at the national level, including at least one and four ANC visits, BCG immunization, access to improved water and adequate sanitation, institutional delivery, skilled birth attendance, care-seeking for pneumonia, and ARI treatment. We observed very low coverages and zero chance of achieving the 2030 targets at national and sub-national levels in early initiation and exclusive breastfeeding, family planning needs satisfied, and oral rehydration therapy. The most deprived households living in rural areas and the Northwest, Northeast, North Central, Central Highlands, and Mekong River Delta regions would not reach the 80% immunization coverage of DPT3, Polio3, Measles and full immunization. We found socioeconomic, regional, and urban-rural inequalities in all RMNCH indicators in 2014 and no change in inequalities over 15 years in the lowest-coverage indicators. Interpretation: Vietnam has made substantial progress toward UHC. By improving the government\u27s health system reform efforts, re-allocating resources focusing on people in the most impoverished rural regions, and restructuring and enhancing current health programs, Vietnam can achieve the UHC targets and other health-related SDGs

Addressing unintentional exclusion of vulnerable and mobile households in traditional surveys in Kathmandu, Dhaka and Hanoi : a mixed methods feasibility study

The methods used in low- and middle-income countries’ (LMICs) household surveys have not changed in four decades; however, LMIC societies have changed substantially and now face unprecedented rates of urbanization and urbanization of poverty. This mismatch may result in unintentional exclusion of vulnerable and mobile urban populations. We compare three survey method innovations with standard survey methods in Kathmandu, Dhaka, and Hanoi and summarize feasibility of our innovative methods in terms of time, cost, skill requirements, and experiences. We used descriptive statistics and regression techniques to compare respondent characteristics in samples drawn with innovative versus standard survey designs and household definitions, adjusting for sample probability weights and clustering. Feasibility of innovative methods was evaluated using a thematic framework analysis of focus group discussions with survey field staff, and via survey planner budgets. We found that a common household definition excluded single adults (46.9%) and migrant-headed households (6.7%), as well as non-married (8.5%), unemployed (10.5%), disabled (9.3%), and studying adults (14.3%). Further, standard two-stage sampling resulted in fewer single adult and non-family households than an innovative area-microcensus design; however, two-stage sampling resulted in more tent and shack dwellers. Our survey innovations provided good value for money, and field staff experiences were neutral or positive. Staff recommended streamlining field tools and pairing technical and survey content experts during fieldwork. This evidence of exclusion of vulnerable and mobile urban populations in LMIC household surveys is deeply concerning and underscores the need to modernize survey methods and practices

How Well Does Societal Mobility Restriction Help Control the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from Real-Time Evaluation

One of the most widely implemented policy response to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has been the imposition of restrictions on mobility (1). These restrictions have included both incentives, encouraging working from home, supported by a wide range of online activities such as meetings, lessons, and shopping, and sanctions, such as stay at home orders, restrictions on travel, and closure of shops, offices, and public transport (2-5). The measures constitute a major component of efforts to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to previous epidemic responses, they are unprecedented in both scale and scope (6). The rationale underpinning these public health measures is that restricting normal activities decreases the number, duration, and proximity of interpersonal contacts and thus the potential for viral transmission. Transmission simulations using complex mathematical modelling have built on past experience such as the 1918 influenza epidemic (7), as well as assumptions about the contemporary scale and nature of contact in populations (8). However, the initial models were not always founded on empirical evidence from behavioral scientists on the feasibility or sustainability of mass social and behavior change in contemporary society. While reductions in interpersonal contact and increases in physical distancing are known to decrease respiratory infection spread (9), the paucity of recent examples of large-scale restrictions on mobility has limited the scope for research on their impact on transmission. Where restrictions have been imposed, as with Ebola, they have involved diseases with a different mode of transmission. Nonetheless, the rapidity of progression of this pandemic has forced many governments into trialing various approaches to containment with limited evidence of effectiveness (10). More conventional public health prevention measures (such as quarantine of contacts, isolation of infected individuals and contact tracing) and control measures in health systems (such as patient flow segregation, negative pressure ventilation, and use of personal protective equipment) (11-14), have been applied widely to control the epidemic in many countries as part of a portfolio of policy responses. However, mobility restriction as a new large-scale mass behavioral and social prescription has incurred considerable costs (15, 16). Estimates suggest global GDP growth has fallen by as much as 10% (17), at least in part due to mobility restriction policies. Although views differ, not least because of the lack of information of what would happen if the disease was unchecked and the emerging evidence of persisting disability in survivors, some have argued that this is greater than would be accounted for by the economic impact of direct illness and deaths from COVID-19 (18, 19). To inform decisions on large scale restrictions of mobility, there is an urgent need to assess their effectiveness in limiting pandemic spread. To this end, we examined the association of mobility with COVID-19 incidence in Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and equivalent economies such as Singapore and Taiwan

Mobility restrictions were associated with reductions in COVID-19 incidence early in the pandemic: evidence from a real-time evaluation in 34 countries

Most countries have implemented restrictions on mobility to prevent the spread of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), entailing considerable societal costs but, at least initially, based on limited evidence of effectiveness. We asked whether mobility restrictions were associated with changes in the occurrence of COVID-19 in 34 OECD countries plus Singapore and Taiwan. Our data sources were the Google Global Mobility Data Source, which reports different types of mobility, and COVID-19 cases retrieved from the dataset curated by Our World in Data. Beginning at each country's 100th case, and incorporating a 14-day lag to account for the delay between exposure and illness, we examined the association between changes in mobility (with January 3 to February 6, 2020 as baseline) and the ratio of the number of newly confirmed cases on a given day to the total number of cases over the past 14 days from the index day (the potentially infective 'pool' in that population), per million population, using LOESS regression and logit regression. In two-thirds of examined countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility (to workplaces, transit stations, retailers, and recreation) were associated with decreased cases, especially early in the pandemic. Once both mobility and incidence had been brought down, further restrictions provided little additional benefit. These findings point to the importance of acting early and decisively in a pandemic

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Safety and efficacy of fluoxetine on functional outcome after acute stroke (AFFINITY): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Trials of fluoxetine for recovery after stroke report conflicting results. The Assessment oF FluoxetINe In sTroke recoverY (AFFINITY) trial aimed to show if daily oral fluoxetine for 6 months after stroke improves functional outcome in an ethnically diverse population. Methods AFFINITY was a randomised, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial done in 43 hospital stroke units in Australia (n=29), New Zealand (four), and Vietnam (ten). Eligible patients were adults (aged ≥18 years) with a clinical diagnosis of acute stroke in the previous 2–15 days, brain imaging consistent with ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke, and a persisting neurological deficit that produced a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 1 or more. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 via a web-based system using a minimisation algorithm to once daily, oral fluoxetine 20 mg capsules or matching placebo for 6 months. Patients, carers, investigators, and outcome assessors were masked to the treatment allocation. The primary outcome was functional status, measured by the mRS, at 6 months. The primary analysis was an ordinal logistic regression of the mRS at 6 months, adjusted for minimisation variables. Primary and safety analyses were done according to the patient's treatment allocation. The trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12611000774921. Findings Between Jan 11, 2013, and June 30, 2019, 1280 patients were recruited in Australia (n=532), New Zealand (n=42), and Vietnam (n=706), of whom 642 were randomly assigned to fluoxetine and 638 were randomly assigned to placebo. Mean duration of trial treatment was 167 days (SD 48·1). At 6 months, mRS data were available in 624 (97%) patients in the fluoxetine group and 632 (99%) in the placebo group. The distribution of mRS categories was similar in the fluoxetine and placebo groups (adjusted common odds ratio 0·94, 95% CI 0·76–1·15; p=0·53). Compared with patients in the placebo group, patients in the fluoxetine group had more falls (20 [3%] vs seven [1%]; p=0·018), bone fractures (19 [3%] vs six [1%]; p=0·014), and epileptic seizures (ten [2%] vs two [<1%]; p=0·038) at 6 months. Interpretation Oral fluoxetine 20 mg daily for 6 months after acute stroke did not improve functional outcome and increased the risk of falls, bone fractures, and epileptic seizures. These results do not support the use of fluoxetine to improve functional outcome after stroke

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Health-related quality of life of the Vietnamese during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BackgroundVietnam applied strict quarantine measures to mitigate the rapid transmission of the SARS-COV-2 virus. Central questions were how the COVID-19 pandemic affected health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of the Vietnamese general population, and whether there is any difference in HRQOL among people under different quarantine conditions.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was conducted during 1 April- 30 May 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic was at its peak in Vietnam. Data was collected via an online survey using Google survey tool. A convenient sampling approach was employed, with participants being sorted into three groups: people who were in government quarantine facilities; people who were under self-isolation at their own place; and the general population who did not need enforced quarantine. The Vietnamese EQ-5D-5L instrument was used to measure HRQOL. Differences in HRQOL among people of isolation groups and their socio-demographic characteristics were statistically tested.ResultsA final sample was made of 406 people, including 10 persons from government quarantine facilities, 57 persons under self-isolation at private places, and the rest were the general population. The mean EQ-VAS was reported the highest at 90.5 (SD: 7.98) among people in government quarantine facilities, followed by 88.54 (SD: 12.24) among general population and 86.54 (SD 13.69) among people in self-isolation group. The EQ-5D-5L value was reported the highest among general population at 0.95 (SD: 0.07), followed by 0.94 (SD: 0.12) among people in government quarantine facilities, and 0.93 (SD: 0.13) among people who did self-isolation. Overall, most people, at any level, reported having problems with anxiety and/or depression in all groups.ConclusionWhile there have been some worries and debates on implementing strict quarantine measures can hinder people's quality of life, Vietnam showed an opposite tendency in people's HRQOL even under the highest level of enforcement in the prevention and control of COVID-19

Clustering lifestyle risk behaviors among Vietnamese adolescents and roles of school: A Bayesian multilevel analysis of global school-based student health survey 2019

Background Adolescence is a vulnerable period for many lifestyle risk behaviors. In this study, we aimed to 1) examine a clustering pattern of lifestyle risk behaviors; 2) investigate roles of the school health promotion programs on this pattern among adolescents in Vietnam. Methods We analyzed data of 7,541 adolescents aged 13–17 years from the 2019 nationally representative Global School-based Student Health Survey, conducted in 20 provinces and cities in Vietnam. We applied the latent class analysis to identify groups of clustering and used Bayesian 2-level logistic regressions to evaluate the correlation of school health promotion programs on these clusters. We reassessed the school effect size by incorporating different informative priors to the Bayesian models. Findings The most frequent lifestyle risk behavior among Vietnamese adolescents was physical inactivity, followed by unhealthy diet, and sedentary behavior. Most of students had a cluster of at least two risk factors and nearly a half with at least three risk factors. Latent class analysis detected 23% males and 18% females being at higher risk of lifestyle behaviors. Consistent through different priors, high quality of health promotion programs associated with lower the odds of lifestyle risk behaviors (highest quality schools vs. lowest quality schools; males: Odds ratio (OR) = 0·67, 95% Highest Density Interval (HDI): 0·46 – 0·93; females: OR = 0·69, 95% HDI: 0·47 – 0·98). Interpretation Our findings demonstrated the clustering of specific lifestyle risk behaviors among Vietnamese in-school adolescents. School-based interventions separated for males and females might reduce multiple health risk behaviors in adolescence. Funding The 2019 Global School-based Student Health Survey was conducted with financial support from the World Health Organization. The authors received no funding for the data analysis, data interpretation, manuscript writing, authorship, and/or publication of this article.PRIFPRI3; ISI; DCAPHN

Development of an Artificial Intelligence-Based Breast Cancer Detection Model by Combining Mammograms and Medical Health Records

Background: Artificial intelligence (AI)-based computational models that analyze breast cancer have been developed for decades. The present study was implemented to investigate the accuracy and efficiency of combined mammography images and clinical records for breast cancer detection using machine learning and deep learning classifiers. Methods: This study was verified using 731 images from 357 women who underwent at least one mammogram and had clinical records for at least six months before mammography. The model was trained on mammograms and clinical variables to discriminate benign and malignant lesions. Multiple pre-trained deep CNN models to detect cancer in mammograms, including X-ception, VGG16, ResNet-v2, ResNet50, and CNN3 were employed. Machine learning models were constructed using k-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) in the clinical dataset. Results: The detection performance obtained an accuracy of 84.5% with a specificity of 78.1% at a sensitivity of 89.7% and an AUC of 0.88. When trained on mammography image data alone, the result achieved a slightly lower score than the combined model (accuracy, 72.5% vs. 84.5%, respectively). Conclusions: A breast cancer-detection model combining machine learning and deep learning models was performed in this study with a satisfactory result, and this model has potential clinical applications