COVID-19 vaccine uptake, confidence and hesitancy in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa between April 2021 and April 2022: A continuous cross-sectional surveillance study

High COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in South Africa limits protection against future epidemic waves. We evaluated how vaccine hesitancy and its correlates evolved April 2021-April 2022 in a well-characterized rural KwaZulu-Natal setting. All residents aged >15 in the Africa Health Research Institute's surveillance area were invited to complete a home-based, in-person interview. We described vaccine uptake and hesitancy trends, then evaluated associations with pre-existing personal factors, dynamic environmental context, and cues to action using ordinal logistic regression. Among 10,011 respondents, vaccine uptake rose as age-cohorts became vaccine-eligible before levelling off three months post-eligibility; younger age-groups had slower uptake and plateaued faster. Lifetime receipt of any COVID-19 vaccine rose from 3.0% in April-July 2021 to 32.9% in January-April 2022. Among 7,445 unvaccinated respondents, 47.7% said they would definitely take a free vaccine today in the first quarter of the study time period, falling to 32.0% in the last. By March/April 2022 only 48.0% of respondents were vaccinated or said they would definitely would take a vaccine. Predictors of lower vaccine hesitancy included being male (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.70, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65-0.76), living with vaccinated household members (aOR:0.65, 95%CI: 0.59-0.71) and knowing someone who had had COVID-19 (aOR: 0.69, 95%CI: 0.59-0.80). Mistrust in government predicted greater hesitancy (aOR: 1.47, 95%CI: 1.42-1.53). Despite several COVID-19 waves, vaccine hesitancy was common in rural South Africa, rising over time and closely tied to mistrust in government. However, interpersonal experiences countered hesitancy and may be entry-points for interventions

Improving Estimates of Social Contact Patterns for Airborne Transmission of Respiratory Pathogens.

Data on social contact patterns are widely used to parameterize age-mixing matrices in mathematical models of infectious diseases. Most studies focus on close contacts only (i.e., persons spoken with face-to-face). This focus may be appropriate for studies of droplet and short-range aerosol transmission but neglects casual or shared air contacts, who may be at risk from airborne transmission. Using data from 2 provinces in South Africa, we estimated age mixing patterns relevant for droplet transmission, nonsaturating airborne transmission, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission, an airborne infection where saturation of household contacts occurs. Estimated contact patterns by age did not vary greatly between the infection types, indicating that widespread use of close contact data may not be resulting in major inaccuracies. However, contact in persons >50 years of age was lower when we considered casual contacts, and therefore the contribution of older age groups to airborne transmission may be overestimated

Access to primary healthcare during lockdown measures for COVID-19 in rural South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated whether implementation of lockdown orders in South Africa affected ambulatory clinic visitation in rural Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN). DESIGN: Observational cohort SETTING: Data were analysed from 11 primary healthcare clinics in northern KZN. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 46 523 individuals made 89 476 clinic visits during the observation period. EXPOSURE OF INTEREST: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis to estimate changes in clinic visitation with a focus on transitions from the prelockdown to the level 5, 4 and 3 lockdown periods. OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily clinic visitation at ambulatory clinics. In stratified analyses, we assessed visitation for the following subcategories: child health, perinatal care and family planning, HIV services, non-communicable diseases and by age and sex strata. RESULTS: We found no change in total clinic visits/clinic/day at the time of implementation of the level 5 lockdown (change from 90.3 to 84.6 mean visits/clinic/day, 95% CI -16.5 to 3.1), or at the transitions to less stringent level 4 and 3 lockdown levels. We did detect a >50% reduction in child healthcare visits at the start of the level 5 lockdown from 11.9 to 4.7 visits/day (-7.1 visits/clinic/day, 95% CI -8.9 to 5.3), both for children aged <1 year and 1-5 years, with a gradual return to prelockdown within 3 months after the first lockdown measure. In contrast, we found no drop in clinic visitation in adults at the start of the level 5 lockdown, or related to HIV care (from 37.5 to 45.6, 8.0 visits/clinic/day, 95% CI 2.1 to 13.8). CONCLUSIONS: In rural KZN, we identified a significant, although temporary, reduction in child healthcare visitation but general resilience of adult ambulatory care provision during the first 4 months of the lockdown. Future work should explore the impacts of the circulating epidemic on primary care provision and long-term impacts of reduced child visitation on outcomes in the region

Publisher Correction: Computer-aided interpretation of chest radiography reveals the spectrum of tuberculosis in rural South Africa

The original version of this Article contained errors in the affiliations of members of the Vukuzazi Team. Anand Ramnanan, Anele Mkhwanazi, Antony Rapulana, Anupa Singh, Ashentha Govender, Ayanda Zungu, Bongani Magwaza, Bongumenzi Ndlovu, Clive Mavimbela, Costa Criticos, Day Munatsi, Dilip Kalyan, Doctar Mlambo, Fezeka Mfeka, Freddy Mabetlela, Gregory Ording-Jespersen, Hannah Keal, Hlengiwe Dlamini, Hlengiwe Khathi, Hlobisile Chonco, Hlobisile Gumede, Hlolisile Khumalo, Hloniphile Ngubane, Hollis Shen, Innocentia Mpofana, Jaco Dreyer, Jade Cousins, Kandaseelan Chetty, Kayleen Brien, Khadija Khan, Khanyisani Buthelezi, Kimeshree Perumal, Kobus Herbst, Lindani Mthembu, Logan Pillay, Mandisi Dlamini, Mandlakayise Zikhali, Mbali Mbuyisa, Mbuti Mofokeng, Melusi Sibiya, Mlungisi Dube, Mpumelelo Steto, Mzamo Buthelezi, Nagavelli Padayachi, Nceba Gqaleni, Ngcebo Mhlongo, Nokukhanya Ntshakala, Nomathamsanqa Majozi, Nombuyiselo Zondi, Nomfundo Luthuli, Nomfundo Ngema, Nompilo Buthelezi, Nonceba Mfeka, Nondumiso Khuluse, Nondumiso Mabaso, Nondumiso Zitha, Nonhlanhla Mfekayi, Nonhlanhla Mzimela, Nozipho Mbonambi, Ntombiyenhlanhla Mkhwanazi, Ntombiyenkosi Ntombela, Pamela Ramkalawon, Phakamani Mkhwanazi, Philippa Mathews, Phumelele Mthethwa, Phumla Ngcobo, Raynold Zondo, Rochelle Singh, Rose Myeni, Sanah Bucibo, Sandile Mthembu, Sashin Harilall, Senamile Makhari, Seneme Mchunu, Senzeni Mkhwanazi, Sibahle Gumbi, Siboniso Nene, Sibusiso Mhlongo, Sibusiso Mkhwanazi, Sibusiso Nsibande, Simphiwe Ntshangase, Siphephelo Dlamini, Sithembile Ngcobo, Siyabonga Nsibande, Siyabonga Nxumalo, Sizwe Ndlela, Skhumbuzo Mthombeni, Smangaliso Zulu, Sphiwe Clement Mthembu, Sphiwe Ntuli, Talente Ntimbane, Thabile Zondi, Thandeka Khoza, Thengokwakhe Nkosi, Thokozani Bhengu, Thokozani Simelane, Tshwaraganang Modise, Tumi Madolo, Welcome Petros Mthembu, Xolani Mkhize, Zamashandu Mbatha, Zinhle Buthelezi, Zinhle Mthembu and Zizile Sikhosana were incorrectly associated with “Digital Health & Machine Learning, Hasso Plattner Institute for Digital Engineering, Berlin, Germany” and the affiliation “Africa Health Research Institute, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa” was inadvertently omitted. This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article

Computer-aided interpretation of chest radiography reveals the spectrum of tuberculosis in rural South Africa.

Computer-aided digital chest radiograph interpretation (CAD) can facilitate high-throughput screening for tuberculosis (TB), but its use in population-based active case-finding programs has been limited. In an HIV-endemic area in rural South Africa, we used a CAD algorithm (CAD4TBv5) to interpret digital chest x-rays (CXR) as part of a mobile health screening effort. Participants with TB symptoms or CAD4TBv5 score above the triaging threshold were referred for microbiological sputum assessment. During an initial pilot phase, a low CAD4TBv5 triaging threshold of 25 was selected to maximize TB case finding. We report the performance of CAD4TBv5 in screening 9,914 participants, 99 (1.0%) of whom were found to have microbiologically proven TB. CAD4TBv5 was able to identify TB cases at the same sensitivity but lower specificity as a blinded radiologist, whereas the next generation of the algorithm (CAD4TBv6) achieved comparable sensitivity and specificity to the radiologist. The CXRs of people with microbiologically confirmed TB spanned a range of lung field abnormality, including 19 (19.2%) cases deemed normal by the radiologist. HIV serostatus did not impact CAD4TB's performance. Notably, 78.8% of the TB cases identified during this population-based survey were asymptomatic and therefore triaged for sputum collection on the basis of CAD4TBv5 score alone. While CAD4TBv6 has the potential to replace radiologists for triaging CXRs in TB prevalence surveys, population-specific piloting is necessary to set the appropriate triaging thresholds. Further work on image analysis strategies is needed to identify radiologically subtle active TB

Convergence of infectious and non-communicable disease epidemics in rural South Africa: a cross-sectional, population-based multimorbidity study.

BACKGROUND: There has been remarkable progress in the treatment of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa, but there are few data on the prevalence and overlap of other significant causes of disease in HIV endemic populations. Our aim was to identify the prevalence and overlap of infectious and non-communicable diseases in such a population in rural South Africa. METHODS: We did a cross-sectional study of eligible adolescents and adults from the Africa Health Research Institute demographic surveillance area in the uMkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The participants, who were 15 years or older, were invited to participate at a mobile health camp. Medical history for HIV, tuberculosis, hypertension, and diabetes was established through a questionnaire. Blood pressure measurements, chest x-rays, and tests of blood and sputum were taken to estimate the population prevalence and geospatial distribution of HIV, active and lifetime tuberculosis, elevated blood glucose, elevated blood pressure, and combinations of these. FINDINGS: 17 118 adolescents and adults were recruited from May 25, 2018, to Nov 28, 2019, and assessed. Overall, 52·1% (95% CI 51·3-52·9) had at least one active disease. 34·2% (33·5-34·9) had HIV, 1·4% (1·2-1·6) had active tuberculosis, 21·8% (21·2-22·4) had lifetime tuberculosis, 8·5% (8·1-8·9) had elevated blood glucose, and 23·0% (22·4-23·6) had elevated blood pressure. Appropriate treatment and optimal disease control was highest for HIV (78·1%), and lower for elevated blood pressure (42·5%), active tuberculosis (29·6%), and elevated blood glucose (7·1%). Disease prevalence differed notably by sex, across age groups, and geospatially: men had a higher prevalence of active and lifetime tuberculosis, whereas women had a substantially high prevalence of HIV at 30-49 years and an increasing prevalence of multiple and poorly controlled non-communicable diseases when older than 50 years. INTERPRETATION: We found a convergence of infectious and non-communicable disease epidemics in a rural South African population, with HIV well treated relative to all other diseases, but tuberculosis, elevated blood glucose, and elevated blood pressure poorly diagnosed and treated. A public health response that expands the successes of the HIV testing and treatment programme to provide multidisease care targeted to specific populations is required to optimise health in such settings in sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the South African Department of Science and Innovation, South African Medical Research Council, and South African Population Research Infrastructure Network. TRANSLATION: For the isiZulu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

The met and unmet health needs for HIV, hypertension, and diabetes in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: analysis of a cross-sectional multimorbidity survey.

BACKGROUND: The convergence of infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases in South Africa is challenging to health systems. In this analysis, we assessed the multimorbidity health needs of individuals and communities in rural KwaZulu-Natal and established a framework to quantify met and unmet health needs for individuals living with infectious and non-communicable diseases. METHODS: We analysed data collected between May 25, 2018, and March 13, 2020, from participants of a large, community-based, cross-sectional multimorbidity survey (Vukuzazi) that offered community-based HIV, hypertension, and diabetes screening to all residents aged 15 years or older in a surveillance area in the uMkhanyakude district in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Data from the Vukuzazi survey were linked with data from demographic and health surveillance surveys with a unique identifier common to both studies. Questionnaires were used to assess the diagnosed health conditions, treatment history, general health, and sociodemographic characteristics of an individual. For each condition (ie, HIV, hypertension, and diabetes), individuals were defined as having no health needs (absence of condition), met health needs (condition that is well controlled), or one or more unmet health needs (including diagnosis, engagement in care, or treatment optimisation). We analysed met and unmet health needs for individual and combined conditions and investigated their geospatial distribution. FINDINGS: Of 18 041 participants who completed the survey (12 229 [67·8%] were female and 5812 [32·2%] were male), 9898 (54·9%) had at least one of the three chronic diseases measured. 4942 (49·9%) of these 9898 individuals had at least one unmet health need (1802 [18·2%] of 9898 needed treatment optimisation, 1282 [13·0%] needed engagement in care, and 1858 [18·8%] needed a diagnosis). Unmet health needs varied by disease; 1617 (93·1%) of 1737 people who screened positive for diabetes, 2681 (58·2%) of 4603 people who screened positive for hypertension, and 1321 (21·7%) of 6096 people who screened positive for HIV had unmet health needs. Geospatially, met health needs for HIV were widely distributed and unmet health needs for all three conditions had specific sites of concentration; all three conditions had an overlapping geographical pattern for the need for diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: Although people living with HIV predominantly have a well controlled condition, there is a high burden of unmet health needs for people living with hypertension and diabetes. In South Africa, adapting current, widely available HIV care services to integrate non-communicable disease care is of high priority. FUNDING: Fogarty International Center and the National Institutes of Health, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the South African Department of Science and Innovation, the South African Medical Research Council, the South African Population Research Infrastructure Network, and the Wellcome Trust. TRANSLATION: For the isiZulu translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe