Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Length of the second stage of labor and preterm delivery risk in the subsequent pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Cervical injury is regarded as an important risk factor for preterm delivery. A prolonged second stage of labor may increase the risk of cervical injury that, in turn, may be associated with increased risk of spontaneous preterm delivery in the subsequent pregnancy. OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate whether the duration of the second stage of labor in a term primiparous singleton delivery is associated with an increased risk of singleton spontaneous preterm delivery (\u3c37 \u3eweeks) in the second pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: We carried out a retrospective cohort analysis of women with 2 consecutive pregnancies: a first term (≥37 weeks) delivery and second birth. Data were derived from a single institution\u27s prospectively collected obstetrical database from January 2005 through January 2015. Duration of the second stage of labor was examined as a continuous variable, modeled based on nonparametric restricted cubic regression spline with 4 degrees of freedom. Second-stage duration was also examined as short (\u3c30 \u3eminutes), normal (30-179 minutes), and prolonged, defined as ≥180 minutes. The association between the duration of the second stage of labor in the first term pregnancy and the risk for spontaneous preterm delivery in the second pregnancy was evaluated before and after adjusting for potential confounders based on the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Associations were expressed based on the adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: In all, 6715 women met inclusion criteria. The hazard of spontaneous preterm delivery in the second pregnancy trended higher with both shorter and longer second-stage labors. The length of the second stage of labor in the first term delivery was categorized as short (\u3c30 \u3eminutes) in 1749 (26.0%), normal (30-179 minutes) in 4551 (67.8%), and prolonged (≥180 minutes), in 415 (6.2%) women. Of these 6715 women with a first term delivery, 4.2% (n = 279) delivered spontaneously preterm in the second pregnancy. The risks of spontaneous preterm delivery among women with prolonged (≥180 minutes) second stage of labor and normal labor duration (30-179 minutes) were 5.4% (n = 22) and 3.5% (n = 158), respectively (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.84). This increased risk for prolonged second stage of labor was primarily seen among women who underwent a cesarean (hazard ratio, 3.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-10.49), but was imprecise among women who delivered vaginally (hazard ratio, 1.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-3.74). The risk of spontaneous preterm delivery among women with short second stage of labor (\u3c30 \u3eminutes) in their first term pregnancy was 5.8% (n = 99; hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.67). CONCLUSION: The risk of spontaneous preterm delivery in the second pregnancy was increased in women with a prolonged (≥180 minutes) second stage in the first term pregnancy. This risk was even greater among women who were delivered by cesarean in the first pregnancy

Predictors of changes in sick leave in workers with asthma: a follow-up study.

Contains fulltext : 49216.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)OBJECTIVE: The aim of this prospective study was to investigate predictors of 1-year changes in sick leave in workers with asthma. METHODS: The initial cohort consisted of 111 workers with asthma. One-hundred and one participants completed the follow-up after 1 year. Self-reported sick leave over the past 12 months was reported at baseline and at follow-up. At the start of this study, all participants completed questionnaires on adaptation to functional limitations, psychosocial variables, working conditions, lung function characteristics, disease history characteristics, health complaints and functional limitations, and person characteristics ('potential predictors'). Three multivariate logistic regression models were calculated, with an increase in sick leave, a decrease in sick leave, and stable high sick leave as dependent (outcome) variables, and the potential predictors as independent (explanatory) variables. RESULTS: An increase in sick leave was predicted by a lower level of education and perceiving more functional limitations in activities of daily life. A decrease in sick leave was predicted by spending all energy at work less often and perceiving fewer health complaints in social activities (adaptation criteria 4 and 5). Stable high sick leave was predicted by less job satisfaction, perceiving more support from the employer and perceiving more health complaints in social activities (adaptation criterion 5). Lung function characteristics, or disease history characteristics were not predictive for changes in sick leave in any of the groups. CONCLUSION: We conclude that adaptation to functional limitations played a major role in changes in sick leave in workers with asthma. Lung function characteristics hardly played a role