Substantial variation across geographic regions in the obesity prevalence among 6–8 years old Hungarian children (COSI Hungary 2016)

Abstract Background There have been previous representative nutritional status surveys conducted in Hungary, but this is the first one that examines overweight and obesity prevalence according to the level of urbanization and in different geographic regions among 6–8-year-old children. We also assessed whether these variations were different by sex. Methods This survey was part of the fourth data collection round of World Health Organization (WHO) Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative which took place during the academic year 2016/2017. The representative sample was determined by two-stage cluster sampling. A total of 5332 children (48.4% boys; age 7.54 ± 0.64 years) were measured from all seven geographic regions including urban (at least 500 inhabitants per square kilometer; n = 1598), semi-urban (100 to 500 inhabitants per square kilometer; n = 1932) and rural (less than 100 inhabitants per square kilometer; n = 1802) areas. Results Using the WHO reference, prevalence of overweight and obesity within the whole sample were 14.2, and 12.7%, respectively. According to the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) reference, rates were 12.6 and 8.6%. Northern Hungary and Southern Transdanubia were the regions with the highest obesity prevalence of 11.0 and 12.0%, while Central Hungary was the one with the lowest obesity rate (6.1%). The prevalence of overweight and obesity tended to be higher in rural areas (13.0 and 9.8%) than in urban areas (11.9 and 7.0%). Concerning differences in sex, girls had higher obesity risk in rural areas (OR = 2.0) but boys did not. Odds ratios were 2.0–3.4 in different regions for obesity compared to Central Hungary, but only among boys. Conclusions Overweight and obesity are emerging problems in Hungary. Remarkable differences were observed in the prevalence of obesity by geographic regions. These variations can only be partly explained by geographic characteristics. Trial registration Study protocol was approved by the Scientific and Research Ethics Committee of the Medical Research Council (61158–2/2016/EKU)

The makeshift city: towards a global geography of squatting

This paper introduces a set of analytical frames that explore the possibilities of conceiving, researching and writing a global geography of squatting. The paper argues that it is possible to detect, in the most tenuous of urban settings, ways of thinking about and living urban life that have the potential to reanimate the city as a key site of geographical inquiry. The paper develops a modest theory of ‘urban combats’ to account for the complexity and provisionality of squatting as an informal set of practices, as a makeshift approach to housing and as a precarious form of inhabiting the city

Radiocarbon dating and cultural dynamics across Mongolia’s early pastoral transition

All necessary permits were obtained for the described study, which complied with all relevant regulations. Collaboration contract between the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human HIstory and the National University of Mongolia began on the 10th November, 2016. Export number 10/413 (7b/52) was received on the 2nd Feb, 2017 (#A0109258, MN DE 7 643). This research was supported by the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History. Special thanks to Dr. Katerina Douka and the Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Laboratory for conducting 14C analysis, and to all of the original excavators and authors who published the radiocarbon dates cited in this study.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

New light on plant ash glass found in Africa: evidence for Indian Ocean Silk Road trade using major, minor, trace element and lead isotope analysis of glass from the 15th—16th century AD from Malindi and Mambrui, Kenya

Seventeen glass vessels and twenty glass beads recovered from the excavations at the ancient city of Malindi and the archaeological site of Mambrui in Kenya, east Africa were analysed using electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). The results show that all of the glass samples are soda-lime-silica glass. They belong to the high alumina -plant ash glass type, characterised by high alumina and relatively low calcium contents, widely distributed in eastern (10th- 16th centuries AD) and southern Africa (13th - 15th centuries AD), Central Asia (9th- 14th centuries AD) and southeast Asia (12th- 13th centuries AD), made with plant ashes and sands. This is an understudied glass type for which previous research has indicated there were three types. When compared with published research on such glasses using Zr, Ti, Ba, Cr, La, Li, Cs, Na2O, MgO and CaO we have identified at least four different compositional groups of v-Na-Al glass: Types A, B, C and D. By comparing the results with contemporary v-Na-Al glass vessels and beads from Central Asia, Africa, and southeast Asia we show that most of the Malindi and Mambrui glass share similar characteristics to the compositions of Mapungubwe Oblate and some of the Madagascar glass beads from southern Africa. They belong to Type A v-Na-Al glass which is characterised by an elevated level of Ti and Ba and a relatively high ratios of Cr/La, relatively low Zr concentrations and low ratios of Zr/ Ti. Differences in Zr, Li, MgO and Na2O concentrations in Type A glass indicates that there are subgroups which might derive from different glass workshop(s) specialising in Type A v- Na-Al glass production. Comparison with the chemical compositions of glass from Ghazni, Afghanistan and Termez, Uzbekistan, and by using lead isotope analysis, we suggest v-Na- Al glass was manufactured in Central Asia and possibly worked into vessels and beads there. Copyright: © 2020 Siu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults.

BACKGROUND: Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. METHODS: We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). FINDINGS: Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese. INTERPRETATION: The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme