Current Perspectives on Viral Disease Outbreaks

The COVID-19 pandemic has reminded the world that infectious diseases are still important. The last 40 years have experienced the emergence of new or resurging viral diseases such as AIDS, ebola, MERS, SARS, Zika, and others. These diseases display diverse epidemiologies ranging from sexual transmission to vector-borne transmission (or both, in the case of Zika). This book provides an overview of recent developments in the detection, monitoring, treatment, and control of several viral diseases that have caused recent epidemics or pandemics

Comprehensive Survey of Using Machine Learning in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Since December 2019, the global health population has faced the rapid spreading of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). With the incremental acceleration of the number of infected cases, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported COVID-19 as an epidemic that puts a heavy burden on healthcare sectors in almost every country. The potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in this context is difficult to ignore. AI companies have been racing to develop innovative tools that contribute to arm the world against this pandemic and minimize the disruption that it may cause. The main objective of this study is to survey the decisive role of AI as a technology used to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Five significant applications of AI for COVID-19 were found, including (1) COVID-19 diagnosis using various data types (e.g., images, sound, and text); (2) estimation of the possible future spread of the disease based on the current confirmed cases; (3) association between COVID-19 infection and patient characteristics; (4) vaccine development and drug interaction; and (5) development of supporting applications. This study also introduces a comparison between current COVID-19 datasets. Based on the limitations of the current literature, this review highlights the open research challenges that could inspire the future application of AI in COVID-19This work was supported by a 2021 Incheon National University Research Grant. This work was also supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No. 2020R1A4A4079299)S

Emerg Infect Dis

PMC4550154611

Mathematical Modeling of Biological Systems

Mathematical modeling is a powerful approach supporting the investigation of open problems in natural sciences, in particular physics, biology and medicine. Applied mathematics allows to translate the available information about real-world phenomena into mathematical objects and concepts. Mathematical models are useful descriptive tools that allow to gather the salient aspects of complex biological systems along with their fundamental governing laws, by elucidating the system behavior in time and space, also evidencing symmetry, or symmetry breaking, in geometry and morphology. Additionally, mathematical models are useful predictive tools able to reliably forecast the future system evolution or its response to specific inputs. More importantly, concerning biomedical systems, such models can even become prescriptive tools, allowing effective, sometimes optimal, intervention strategies for the treatment and control of pathological states to be planned. The application of mathematical physics, nonlinear analysis, systems and control theory to the study of biological and medical systems results in the formulation of new challenging problems for the scientific community. This Special Issue includes innovative contributions of experienced researchers in the field of mathematical modelling applied to biology and medicine

Network resilience

Many systems on our planet are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across a "tipping point," such as mass extinctions in ecological networks, cascading failures in infrastructure systems, and social convention changes in human and animal networks. Such a regime shift demonstrates a system's resilience that characterizes the ability of a system to adjust its activity to retain its basic functionality in the face of internal disturbances or external environmental changes. In the past 50 years, attention was almost exclusively given to low dimensional systems and calibration of their resilience functions and indicators of early warning signals without considerations for the interactions between the components. Only in recent years, taking advantages of the network theory and lavish real data sets, network scientists have directed their interest to the real-world complex networked multidimensional systems and their resilience function and early warning indicators. This report is devoted to a comprehensive review of resilience function and regime shift of complex systems in different domains, such as ecology, biology, social systems and infrastructure. We cover the related research about empirical observations, experimental studies, mathematical modeling, and theoretical analysis. We also discuss some ambiguous definitions, such as robustness, resilience, and stability.Comment: Review chapter

Statistical physics of vaccination

Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease dynamics and inform prevention strategies. Vaccination–one of the most important preventive measures of modern times–is of great interest both theoretically and empirically. And in contrast to traditional approaches, recent research increasingly explores the pivotal implications of individual behavior and heterogeneous contact patterns in populations. Our report reviews the developmental arc of theoretical epidemiology with emphasis on vaccination, as it led from classical models assuming homogeneously mixing (mean-field) populations and ignoring human behavior, to recent models that account for behavioral feedback and/or population spatial/social structure. Many of the methods used originated in statistical physics, such as lattice and network models, and their associated analytical frameworks. Similarly, the feedback loop between vaccinating behavior and disease propagation forms a coupled nonlinear system with analogs in physics. We also review the new paradigm of digital epidemiology, wherein sources of digital data such as online social media are mined for high-resolution information on epidemiologically relevant individual behavior. Armed with the tools and concepts of statistical physics, and further assisted by new sources of digital data, models that capture nonlinear interactions between behavior and disease dynamics offer a novel way of modeling real-world phenomena, and can help improve health outcomes. We conclude the review by discussing open problems in the field and promising directions for future research

Classification and detection of Critical Transitions: from theory to data

From population collapses to cell-fate decision, critical phenomena are abundant in complex real-world systems. Among modelling theories to address them, the critical transitions framework gained traction for its purpose of determining classes of critical mechanisms and identifying generic indicators to detect and alert them (“early warning signals”). This thesis contributes to such research field by elucidating its relevance within the systems biology landscape, by providing a systematic classification of leading mechanisms for critical transitions, and by assessing the theoretical and empirical performance of early warning signals. The thesis thus bridges general results concerning the critical transitions field – possibly applicable to multidisciplinary contexts – and specific applications in biology and epidemiology, towards the development of sound risk monitoring system

Re-emergence of Neglected Tropical Diseases amid the COVID-19 Pandemic : Epidemiology, Transmission, Mitigation Strategies, and Recent Advances in Chemotherapy and Vaccines

The current re-emergence of neglected tropical diseases (NTD) amid the global COVID-19 pandemic requires increased attention. These include communicable and vector-borne diseases caused by various fungi, bacteria (e.g. tuberculosis), viruses (e.g. dengue, Chikungunya fever, monkeypox, Marburg and Ebola virus disease, poliomyelitis, rabies), and parasites (e.g. filariasis, malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis). Whilst the vast majority of such diseases remain endemic to specific regions of the world (e.g. tropical Africa), some - like those caused by the Ebola virus, the Marburg virus, and more recently the Monkeypox virus - have been reported elsewhere (e.g. Europe and America), forcing public health boards in various countries to take all necessary precautions to control such a spread. The Department for Control of Neglected Tropical Disease was created in 2005 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to tackle NTD. In 2021, the 74th World Health Assembly proposed a 9-year plan (2021-2030) intended to eradicate neglected diseases. Over the past three years, COVID-19 has had a significant impact on socio-economic activities and healthcare systems worldwide. With the WHO recently declaring the global monkeypox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, a coordinated effort among high-income and low/middle-income countries is now more than ever recommended to address the threat posed by the worldwide re-emergence of some NTD. There is currently a lack of knowledge on understanding how such diseases are transmitted and what mitigation strategies should be put in place to control their spread. Better availability of diagnostic tests, vaccines, and drugs in affected countries is also required. In this Research Topic, we wish to address how to best tackle the re-emergence of NTD in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This collection welcomes a range of articles including opinion, commentary, systematic reviews, and original research articles on epidemiology, transmission, mitigation strategies, and recent advances in chemotherapy and vaccines for these NTD

Statistical Inference for Propagation Processes on Complex Networks

Die Methoden der Netzwerktheorie erfreuen sich wachsender Beliebtheit, da sie die Darstellung von komplexen Systemen durch Netzwerke erlauben. Diese werden nur mit einer Menge von Knoten erfasst, die durch Kanten verbunden werden. Derzeit verfügbare Methoden beschränken sich hauptsächlich auf die deskriptive Analyse der Netzwerkstruktur. In der hier vorliegenden Arbeit werden verschiedene Ansätze für die Inferenz über Prozessen in komplexen Netzwerken vorgestellt. Diese Prozesse beeinflussen messbare Größen in Netzwerkknoten und werden durch eine Menge von Zufallszahlen beschrieben. Alle vorgestellten Methoden sind durch praktische Anwendungen motiviert, wie die Übertragung von Lebensmittelinfektionen, die Verbreitung von Zugverspätungen, oder auch die Regulierung von genetischen Effekten. Zunächst wird ein allgemeines dynamisches Metapopulationsmodell für die Verbreitung von Lebensmittelinfektionen vorgestellt, welches die lokalen Infektionsdynamiken mit den netzwerkbasierten Transportwegen von kontaminierten Lebensmitteln zusammenführt. Dieses Modell ermöglicht die effiziente Simulationen verschiedener realistischer Lebensmittelinfektionsepidemien. Zweitens wird ein explorativer Ansatz zur Ursprungsbestimmung von Verbreitungsprozessen entwickelt. Auf Grundlage einer netzwerkbasierten Redefinition der geodätischen Distanz können komplexe Verbreitungsmuster in ein systematisches, kreisrundes Ausbreitungsschema projiziert werden. Dies gilt genau dann, wenn der Ursprungsnetzwerkknoten als Bezugspunkt gewählt wird. Die Methode wird erfolgreich auf den EHEC/HUS Epidemie 2011 in Deutschland angewandt. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Methode die aufwändigen Standarduntersuchungen bei Lebensmittelinfektionsepidemien sinnvoll ergänzen kann. Zudem kann dieser explorative Ansatz zur Identifikation von Ursprungsverspätungen in Transportnetzwerken angewandt werden. Die Ergebnisse von umfangreichen Simulationsstudien mit verschiedenstensten Übertragungsmechanismen lassen auf eine allgemeine Anwendbarkeit des Ansatzes bei der Ursprungsbestimmung von Verbreitungsprozessen in vielfältigen Bereichen hoffen. Schließlich wird gezeigt, dass kernelbasierte Methoden eine Alternative für die statistische Analyse von Prozessen in Netzwerken darstellen können. Es wurde ein netzwerkbasierter Kern für den logistischen Kernel Machine Test entwickelt, welcher die nahtlose Integration von biologischem Wissen in die Analyse von Daten aus genomweiten Assoziationsstudien erlaubt. Die Methode wird erfolgreich bei der Analyse genetischer Ursachen für rheumatische Arthritis und Lungenkrebs getestet. Zusammenfassend machen die Ergebnisse der vorgestellten Methoden deutlich, dass die Netzwerk-theoretische Analyse von Verbreitungsprozessen einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Beantwortung verschiedenster Fragestellungen in unterschiedlichen Anwendungen liefern kann