Trends in obesity and diabetes across Africa from 1980 to 2014: an analysis of pooled population-based studies

Background: The 2016 Dar Es Salaam Call to Action on Diabetes and Other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) advocates national multi-sectoral NCD strategies and action plans based on available data and information from countries of sub-Saharan Africa and beyond. We estimated trends from 1980 to 2014 in age-standardized mean body mass index (BMI) and diabetes prevalence in these countries, in order to assess the co-progression and assist policy formulation. Methods: We pooled data from African and worldwide population-based studies which measured height, weight and biomarkers to assess diabetes status in adults aged ≥ 18 years. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate trends by sex for 200 countries and territories including 53 countries across five African regions (central, eastern, northern, southern and western), in mean BMI and diabetes prevalence (defined as either fasting plasma glucose of ≥ 7.0 mmol/l, history of diabetes diagnosis, or use of insulin or oral glucose control agents). Results: African data came from 245 population-based surveys (1.2 million participants) for BMI and 76 surveys (182 000 participants) for diabetes prevalence estimates. Countries with the highest number of data sources for BMI were South Africa (n = 17), Nigeria (n = 15) and Egypt (n = 13); and for diabetes estimates, Tanzania (n = 8), Tunisia (n = 7), and Cameroon, Egypt and South Africa (all n = 6). The age-standardized mean BMI increased from 21.0 kg/m2 (95% credible interval: 20.3–21.7) to 23.0 kg/m2 (22.7–23.3) in men, and from 21.9 kg/m2 (21.3–22.5) to 24.9 kg/m2 (24.6–25.1) in women. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes increased from 3.4% (1.5–6.3) to 8.5% (6.5–10.8) in men, and from 4.1% (2.0–7.5) to 8.9% (6.9–11.2) in women. Estimates in northern and southern regions were mostly higher than the global average; those in central, eastern and western regions were lower than global averages. A positive association (correlation coefficient ≃ 0.9) was observed between mean BMI and diabetes prevalence in both sexes in 1980 and 2014. Conclusions: These estimates, based on limited data sources, confirm the rapidly increasing burden of diabetes in Africa. This rise is being driven, at least in part, by increasing adiposity, with regional variations in observed trends. African countries’ efforts to prevent and control diabetes and obesity should integrate the setting up of reliable monitoring systems, consistent with the World Health Organization’s Global Monitoring System Framework

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: A comparative risk assessment

Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Global variations in diabetes mellitus based on fasting glucose and haemogloblin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but may identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening had elevated FPG, HbA1c, or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardised proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed, and detected in survey screening, ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the agestandardised proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global gap in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.peer-reviewe

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Differences in rates of obstructive lung disease between Africans and African Americans

Objective: The prevalence of obstructive lung disease is rising in the United States, particularly among those of African descent. Rates of ventilatory impairment and reported respiratory symptoms were examined in a cross-sectional study of urban Nigerian civil servants who are in transition to a westernized lifestyle. Design: 410 civil servants (235 men, 175 women) aged 30-69 years in Benin City, Nigeria (West Africa) were recruited for a cross-sectional study on respiratory health and compared to 3,397 African Americans enrolled in NHANES III between 1988 and 1994. Methods: Forced vital capacity (FVC), expiratory flow rate in 1 sec (FEV1), FEV1/FVC ratio, and peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) were measured by spirometry. Demographic characteristics and respiratory symptoms were ascertained by questionnaire. Results: Nigerians had lower age and height adjusted FVC and FEV1 than African Americans in both genders, independent of smoking and respiratory disease. However, relative lung function was better among Nigerians. Fewer Nigerians had an age-adjusted FEV1/FVC ratio below 0.70 than African Americans (10.54 vs 14.10/100 men, 6.29 vs 8.67/100 women). Overall, Nigerians had a lower age-adjusted prevalence of any self-reported respiratory symptoms than African Americans (3.65 vs 22.90/100 men, 4.57 vs 35.38/100 women). Similarly, Nigerians had a lower age-adjusted prevalence of current smoking than African Americans (10.82 vs 46.50/100 in men and 0 vs 30.93/100 in women). Conclusions: Urban Nigerians who have limited exposure to cigarette smoke and who work in a non-industrial setting have a low prevalence of obstructive lung disease

Apolipoprotein A Kringle 4 Polymorphism and Serum Lipoprotein (a) Concentrations in African Blacks

Several epidemiological studies have established that elevated serum lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] levels are independent risk factors for coronary heart disease, stroke, and restenosis of coronary lesions in white and Asian populations. Serum Lp(a) levels vary over a 1000-fold range among individuals and are under strict genetic control. Serum Lp(a) levels are significantly higher in populations with African ancestry than in populations of European ancestry. The APOA gene exhibits hypervariable length polymorphism resulting from a variable number of expressed kringle 4 repeats. An inverse relationship exists between the size of kringle 4 repeats and serum Lp(a) levels. However, most studies have been conducted in whites, and the data are scanty in African populations. To explore this relationship among Africans, we determined serum Lp(a) levels and APOA Kringle 4 size polymorphisms in 781 unrelated Africans (490 men, 291 women) from Benin City, Nigeria. Mean and median serum Lp(a) values were 25.6 ± 0.6 mg/dl and 20.9 mg/dl, respectively. Although there was no difference in mean Lp(a) values between men and women, median Lp(a) values were higher in women than in men (p = 0.02). Using SDS-agarose gel electrophoresis, we detected 38 APOA isoforms, the highest number recorded to date. There were 10 consecutive medium-size alleles whose frequencies ranged between 4.2% and 10.9%, and together they accounted for 72.8% of the alleles observed in this population. Spearman’s correlation coefficients showed an inverse relationship between the size of the APOA isoform and Lp(a) levels using either single-banded (r = 0.46; p \u3c 0.0001) or double-banded (r = 0.42; p \u3c 0.0001) phenotypes. Using random effects analysis of variance on the entire sample, the APOA size polymorphism explained about 15% of the phenotypic variation in Lp(a) levels. These data suggest that despite significant correlation between the APOA kringle 4 size polymorphism and Lp(a) levels, other sequence variations either in the APOA gene or closely linked genes may account for relatively higher Lp(a) levels found in Africans