Distinguishing Land Change from Natural Variability and Uncertainty in Central Mexico with MODIS EVI, TRMM Precipitation, and MODIS LST Data

Precipitation and temperature enact variable influences on vegetation, impacting the type and condition of land cover, as well as the assessment of change over broad landscapes. Separating the influence of vegetative variability independent and discrete land cover change remains a major challenge to landscape change assessments. The heterogeneous Lerma-Chapala-Santiago watershed of central Mexico exemplifies both natural and anthropogenic forces enacting variability and change on the landscape. This study employed a time series of Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) composites from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer (MODIS) for 2001–2007 and per-pixel multiple linear regressions in order to model changes in EVI as a function of precipitation, temperature, and elevation. Over the seven-year period, 59.1% of the variability in EVI was explained by variability in the independent variables, with highest model performance among changing and heterogeneous land cover types, while intact forest cover demonstrated the greatest resistance to changes in temperature and precipitation. Model results were compared to an independent change uncertainty assessment, and selected regional samples of change confusion and natural variability give insight to common problems afflicting land change analyses

The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability

Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research. This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand the dynamics of land cover and land use as a coupled human-environment system to address theory, concepts, models, and applications relevant to environmental and societal problems, including the intersection of the two. The major components and advances in land change are addressed: observation and monitoring; understanding the coupled system-causes, impacts, and consequences; modeling; and synthesis issues. The six articles of the special feature are introduced and situated within these components of study. Land Change and Its Science H uman-driven changes in the terrestrial surface of the earth hold wide-ranging significance for the structure and function of ecosystems to the earth system, with equally far-reaching consequences for human well-being (1). The antiquity of the unintended impacts of these changes is well documented for locales and regions (2, 3), and those linked to megafauna losses obtained a global reach by 10,000 B.P. (4-6). Deforestation and irrigation were the largest sources of human-released greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere until the advent of industrial era fossil-fuel burning, and as much as 35% of the human-induced CO 2 equivalents in the atmosphere today can be traced to the totality of landuse/cover changes Today, as much as 50% of the earth's ice-free land surface has been transformed (9, 10), and virtually all land has been affected in some way by such processes as coadapted landscapes, climate change, and tropospheric pollution ʈ In the face of these global dimensions, local to regional land changes remain important. For example, the largescale replacement of natural land cover by urban and agricultural land uses in southern Florida has reduced precipitation there (19), consistent with land changeregional climate impacts found elsewhere (20). Even more dramatically, massive irrigated agricultural projects triggered the collapse of the Aral Sea and its fishing industry, with feedbacks that include wind-dispersed deposition of surface salts from the dry sea bed on adjacent agricultural lands and even on the glacial sources of rivers feeding the sea (21). Changes in land and ecosystems and their implications for global environmental change and sustainability are a major research challenge for the humanenvironmental sciences The daunting objectives of LCS The Dimensions of LCS: Advances, Implications, and Challenges Observation, Monitoring, and Land Characterization. The number of and improvements in air-and space-borne sensors over the past two decades have fundamentally altered the capacity to observe Author contributions: B.L.T., E.F.L., and A.R. wrote the paper. The authors declare no conflict of interest. † To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: [email protected]. ¶ ''Land transformation'' refers to radical changes in land use and cover, usually over the long term, such as forest to row crop cultivation, or wetlands to urban settlement. The various estimates of these changes differ owing to the use of different metrics and measures and the uncertainties involved. Regardless, transformations are sizable as proportion of the ice-free land surface. If lands altered by human activity-lands retaining their base land cover but configured differently than in the ''wildland'' state-are included, a much larger estimate would result. Examples include degraded arid lands, pasture and grasslands invaded by or planted to exotic flora, and coadapted forests and grassland. Coadapted land covers are shaped and maintained by prolonged and repeated human activity, such as burning, that enlarges land use or land production: for example, annual burning that expands savanna grasses relative to woody species and enlarges food stocks for livestock and native grazers. ʈ As with estimates of land transformations and alterations, there is little doubt that human activity usurps a large proportion of terrestrial net primary productivity, but the uncertainty in the estimates remains large (16)

Ecosystem services from converted land: the importance of tree cover in Amazonian pastures.

Deforestation is responsible for a substantial fraction of global carbon emissions and changes in surface energy budgets that affect climate. Deforestation losses include wildlife and human habitat, and myriad forest products on which rural and urban societies depend for food, fiber, fuel, fresh water, medicine, and recreation. Ecosystem services gained in the transition from forests to pasture and croplands, however, are often ignored in assessments of the impact of land cover change. The role of converted lands in tropical areas in terms of carbon uptake and storage is largely unknown. Pastures represent the fastest-growing form of converted land use in the tropics, even in some areas of rapid urban expansion. Tree biomass stored in these areas spans a broad range, depending on tree cover. Trees in pasture increase carbon storage, provide shade for cattle, and increase productivity of forage material. As a result, increasing fractional tree cover can provide benefits land managers as well as important ecosystem services such as reducing conversion pressure on forests adjacent to pastures. This study presents an estimation of fractional tree cover in pasture in a dynamic region on the verge of large-scale land use change. An appropriate sampling interval is established for similar studies, one that balances the need for independent samples of sufficient number to characterize a pasture in terms of fractional tree cover. This information represents a useful policy tool for government organizations and NGOs interested in encouraging ecosystem services on converted lands. Using high spatial resolution Rio Branco, Brazil. A semivariogram and devolving spatial resolution are employed to determine the coarsest sampling interval that may be used, minimizing effects of spatial autocorrelation. The coarsest sampling interval that minimizes spatial dependence was about 22 m. The area-weighted fractional tree cover for the study area was 1.85 %, corrected for a slight bias associated with the coarser sampling resolution. The pastures sampled for fractional tree cover were divided between ?high? and ?low? tree cover, which may be the result of intentional incorporation of arboreal species in pasture. Further research involving those ranchers that have a higher fractional tree cover may indicate ways to promote the practice on a broader scale in the region

Biodiversity and ecosystem services science for a sustainable planet: the DIVERSITAS vision for 2012–20

DIVERSITAS, the international programme on biodiversity science, is releasing a strategic vision presenting scientific challenges for the next decade of research on biodiversity and ecosystem services: “Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Science for a Sustainable Planet”. This new vision is a response of the biodiversity and ecosystem services scientific community to the accelerating loss of the components of biodiversity, as well as to changes in the biodiversity science-policy landscape (establishment of a Biodiversity Observing Network — GEO BON, of an Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services — IPBES, of the new Future Earth initiative; and release of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020). This article presents the vision and its core scientific challenges.Fil: Larigauderie, Anne. DIVERSITAS. Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle; FranciaFil: Prieur Richard, Anne Helene. DIVERSITAS. Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle; FranciaFil: Mace, Georgina. Imperial College London. Center for Population Biology; Reino UnidoFil: Londsdale, Mark. CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences; AustraliaFil: Mooney, Harold A.. Stanford University. Department of Biological Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Brussaard, Lijbert. Wageningen University, Soil Quality Department; Países BajosFil: Cooper, David. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity; CanadáFil: Wolfgang, Cramer. Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale; FranciaFil: Daszak, Peter. EcoHealth Alliance. Wildlife Trust; Estados UnidosFil: Diaz, Sandra Myrna. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal; ArgentinaFil: Duraiappah, Anantha. International Human Dimensions Programme; AlemaniaFil: Elmqvist, Thomas. University of Stockholm. Department of Systems Ecology and Stockholm Resilience Center; SueciaFil: Faith, Daniel. The Australian Museum; AustraliaFil: Jackson, Louise. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Krug, Cornelia. DIVERSITAS. Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle; FranciaFil: Leadley, Paul. Université Paris. Laboratoire Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Ecologie des Populations et Communautés; FranciaFil: Le Prestre, Philippe. Laval University; CanadáFil: Matsuda, Hiroyuki. Yokohama National University; JapónFil: Palmer, Margaret. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Perrings, Charles. Arizona State University; Estados UnidosFil: Pulleman, Mirjam. Wageningen University; Países BajosFil: Reyers, Belinda. Natural Resources and Environment; SudáfricaFil: Rosa, Eugene A.. Washington State University; Estados UnidosFil: Scholes, Robert J.. Natural Resources and Environment; SudáfricaFil: Spehn, Eva. Universidad de Basilea; SuizaFil: Turner II, B. L.. Arizona State University; Estados UnidosFil: Yahara, Tetsukazu. Kyushu University; Japó

Why dig looted tombs? Two examples and some answers from Keushu (Ancash highlands, Peru)

Looted tombs at Andean archaeological sites are largely the result of a long tradition of trade in archaeological artefacts coupled with the 17th century policy of eradicating ancestor veneration and destroying mortuary evidence in a bid to “extirpate idolatry”. On the surface, looted funerary contexts often present abundant disarticulated and displaced human remains as well as an apparent absence of mortuary accoutrements. What kind of information can archaeologists and biological anthropologists hope to gather from such contexts? In order to gauge the methodological possibilities and interpretative limitations of targeting looted tombs, we fully excavated two collective funerary contexts at the archaeological site of Keushu (district and province of Yungay, Ancash, Peru; c. 2000 B.C.-A.D. 1600), which includes several dozen tombs, many built under large boulders or rock shelters, all of which appear disturbed by looting. The first is located in the ceremonial sector and excavation yielded information on four individuals; the second, in the funerary and residential sector, held the remains of seventy individuals - adults and juveniles. Here, we present and discuss the recovered data and suggest that careful, joint excavations by archaeologists and biological anthropologists can retrieve evidence of past mortuary practices, aid the biological characterisation of mortuary populations and help distinguish between a broad range of looting practices and post-depositional processes

Depression and anxiety symptoms post-stroke/TIA:prevalence and associations in cross-sectional data from a regional stroke registry

BACKGROUND: Mood disorders are commonly seen in those with cerebrovascular disease. Literature to-date has tended to focus on depression and on patients with stroke, with relatively little known about post-stroke anxiety or mood disorder in those with transient ischaemic attack (TIA). We aimed to describe prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms in stroke and TIA cohorts and to explore association with clinical and socio-demographic factors. METHODS: We used a city wide primary care stroke registry (Glasgow Local Enhanced Service for Stroke - LES). All community dwelling stroke-survivors were included. We described cross-sectional prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Data on clinical and demographic details was collected and univariable and multivariable analyses performed to describe associations with HADS scores. We examined those with a diagnosis of 'stroke' and 'TIA' as separate cohorts. RESULTS: From 13,283 potentially eligible stroke patients in the registry, we had full HADS data on 4,079. Of the 3,584 potentially eligible TIA patients, we had full HADS data on 1,247 patients. Across the stroke cohort, 1181 (29%) had HADS anxiety scores suggestive of probable or possible anxiety; 993 (24%) for depression. For TIA patients, 361 (29%) had anxiety and 254 (21%) had depression. Independent predictors of both depression and anxiety symptoms were female sex, younger age and higher socioeconomic deprivation score (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Using HADS, we found a high prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms in a community-based cohort of patients with cerebrovascular disease

Planck 2013 results. XXII. Constraints on inflation

We analyse the implications of the Planck data for cosmic inflation. The Planck nominal mission temperature anisotropy measurements, combined with the WMAP large-angle polarization, constrain the scalar spectral index to be ns = 0:9603 _ 0:0073, ruling out exact scale invariance at over 5_: Planck establishes an upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of r < 0:11 (95% CL). The Planck data thus shrink the space of allowed standard inflationary models, preferring potentials with V00 < 0. Exponential potential models, the simplest hybrid inflationary models, and monomial potential models of degree n _ 2 do not provide a good fit to the data. Planck does not find statistically significant running of the scalar spectral index, obtaining dns=dln k = 0:0134 _ 0:0090. We verify these conclusions through a numerical analysis, which makes no slowroll approximation, and carry out a Bayesian parameter estimation and model-selection analysis for a number of inflationary models including monomial, natural, and hilltop potentials. For each model, we present the Planck constraints on the parameters of the potential and explore several possibilities for the post-inflationary entropy generation epoch, thus obtaining nontrivial data-driven constraints. We also present a direct reconstruction of the observable range of the inflaton potential. Unless a quartic term is allowed in the potential, we find results consistent with second-order slow-roll predictions. We also investigate whether the primordial power spectrum contains any features. We find that models with a parameterized oscillatory feature improve the fit by __2 e_ _ 10; however, Bayesian evidence does not prefer these models. We constrain several single-field inflation models with generalized Lagrangians by combining power spectrum data with Planck bounds on fNL. Planck constrains with unprecedented accuracy the amplitude and possible correlation (with the adiabatic mode) of non-decaying isocurvature fluctuations. The fractional primordial contributions of cold dark matter (CDM) isocurvature modes of the types expected in the curvaton and axion scenarios have upper bounds of 0.25% and 3.9% (95% CL), respectively. In models with arbitrarily correlated CDM or neutrino isocurvature modes, an anticorrelated isocurvature component can improve the _2 e_ by approximately 4 as a result of slightly lowering the theoretical prediction for the ` <_ 40 multipoles relative to the higher multipoles. Nonetheless, the data are consistent with adiabatic initial conditions

Midgut microbiota of the malaria mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and Interactions with plasmodium falciparum Infection

The susceptibility of Anopheles mosquitoes to Plasmodium infections relies on complex interactions between the insect vector and the malaria parasite. A number of studies have shown that the mosquito innate immune responses play an important role in controlling the malaria infection and that the strength of parasite clearance is under genetic control, but little is known about the influence of environmental factors on the transmission success. We present here evidence that the composition of the vector gut microbiota is one of the major components that determine the outcome of mosquito infections. A. gambiae mosquitoes collected in natural breeding sites from Cameroon were experimentally challenged with a wild P. falciparum isolate, and their gut bacterial content was submitted for pyrosequencing analysis. The meta-taxogenomic approach revealed a broader richness of the midgut bacterial flora than previously described. Unexpectedly, the majority of bacterial species were found in only a small proportion of mosquitoes, and only 20 genera were shared by 80% of individuals. We show that observed differences in gut bacterial flora of adult mosquitoes is a result of breeding in distinct sites, suggesting that the native aquatic source where larvae were grown determines the composition of the midgut microbiota. Importantly, the abundance of Enterobacteriaceae in the mosquito midgut correlates significantly with the Plasmodium infection status. This striking relationship highlights the role of natural gut environment in parasite transmission. Deciphering microbe-pathogen interactions offers new perspectives to control disease transmission.Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); French Agence Nationale pour la Recherche [ANR-11-BSV7-009-01]; European Community [242095, 223601]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente