Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents’ growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents’ growth and development

AbstractOptimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was &lt;1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.</jats:p

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI 2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/images/research_banner_face_lab_290.jpgunderweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity

Clinical Correlates of Periodic Discharges and Nonconvulsive Seizures in Posterior Reversible Encephalopathy Syndrome (PRES)

Importance: The pathophysiological mechanisms of Posterior Reversible Encephalopathy Syndrome (PRES) and related seizures remain poorly understood. The prevalence and clinical significance of nonconvulsive seizures (NCSz) and related epileptiform patterns during continuous electroencephalography monitoring (CEEG) in PRES have not been well described. Objective: To report the prevalence, characteristics and risk factors for NCSz and related highly epileptiform patterns in patients with PRES, and to determine their relation to imaging abnormalities and outcome. Design, Setting and Participants: From a prospective CEEG database, we retrospectively identified patients with PRES and reviewed their medical charts. Based on CEEG findings, we designed a retrospective cohort study comparing two groups defined based on the presence or the absence of NCSz and/or periodic discharges (PDs). Main outcomes and Measures: The prevalence and risk factors for PDs and NCSz, description of EEG and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) abnormalities and functional outcome as measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) at hospital discharge. Results: Among 37 eligible patients, 23 (62%) had PDs or NCSz. The presence of NCSz was associated with the presence of PDs (15/22 vs. 1/15; p = 0.0002). NCSz and PDs were usually either lateralized or bilateral independent and predominated in the posterior regions. No clinical features were associated with the occurrence of PDs or NCSz. Cortical restricted diffusion on MRI was more frequent in the PDs/NCSz group (17/23 vs. 1/14; p < 0.001). PDs/NCSz were associated with worse outcome, with 3 deaths vs. 0 in the no PDs/NCSz group and fewer cases with low disability (4 vs. 9 cases with GOS = 5, p < 0.04). Conclusions and Relevance: Our results reveal a high prevalence of NCSz and PDs in critically ill patients with PRES and an association with restricted diffusion and worse outcome, whether treating or preventing these EEG findings can improve outcome requires further research.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Time-dependent risk of seizures in critically ill patients on continuous electroencephalogram

Objective: Find the optimal continuous electroencephalographic (CEEG) monitoring duration for seizure detection in critically ill patients. Methods: We analyzed prospective data from 665 consecutive CEEGs, including clinical factors and time-to-event emergence of electroencephalographic (EEG) findings over 72 hours. Clinical factors were selected using logistic regression. EEG risk factors were selected a priori. Clinical factors were used for baseline (pre-EEG) risk. EEG findings were used for the creation of a multistate survival model with 3 states (entry, EEG risk, and seizure). EEG risk state is defined by emergence of epileptiform patterns. Results: The clinical variables of greatest predictive value were coma (31% had seizures; odds ratio [OR] = 1.8, p < 0.01) and history of seizures, either remotely or related to acute illness (34% had seizures; OR = 3.0, p < 0.001). If there were no epileptiform findings on EEG, the risk of seizures within 72 hours was between 9% (no clinical risk factors) and 36% (coma and history of seizures). If epileptiform findings developed, the seizure incidence was between 18% (no clinical risk factors) and 64% (coma and history of seizures). In the absence of epileptiform EEG abnormalities, the duration of monitoring needed for seizure risk of <5% was between 0.4 hours (for patients who are not comatose and had no prior seizure) and 16.4 hours (comatose and prior seizure). Interpretation: The initial risk of seizures on CEEG is dependent on history of prior seizures and presence of coma. The risk of developing seizures on CEEG decays to <5% by 24 hours if no epileptiform EEG abnormalities emerge, independent of initial clinical risk factors. Ann Neurol 2017;82:177–185.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Cyclic seizures in critically ill patients: Clinical correlates, DC recordings and outcomes

Objective To describe EEG and clinical correlates, DC recordings and prognostic significance of cyclic seizures (CS). Methods We reviewed our prospective continuous EEG database to identify patients with CS, controls with non-cyclic status epilepticus (SE) and controls without seizure matched for age and etiology. EEG was reviewed with DC settings. Results 39/260 (15%) patients with electrographic seizures presented with CS. These patients were older (62 vs. 54 years; p = 0.04) and more often had acute or progressive brain injury (77% vs. 52%; p = 0.03) than patients with non-cyclic SE and had a lower level of consciousness, were more severely ill, than matched controls. CS almost always had focal onset, often from posterior regions. Patients with CS trended towards worse prognosis. When available (12 patients), DC recordings showed an infraslow cyclic oscillation of EEG baseline synchronized to the seizures in all cases. Conclusions CS occur mostly in older patients with acute or progressive brain injury, are more likely to be associated with poor outcome than patients with other forms of nonconvulsive SE, and are accompanied by synchronous oscillations of the EEG baseline on DC recordings. Significance CS are a common form of non-convulsive status epilepticus in critically ill patients and provide further insights into the relationship between infraslow activity and seizures; further study on this relationship may shed light on the mechanisms of seizure initiation and termination.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Clinical Correlates and Prognostic Significance of Lateralized Periodic Discharges in Patients Without Acute or Progressive Brain Injury: A Case-Control Study

Purpose: Lateralized periodic discharges (LPDs, also known as periodic lateralized epileptiform discharges) in conjunction with acute brain injuries are known to be associated with worse prognosis but little is known about their importance in absence of such acute injuries. We studied the clinical correlates and outcome of patients with LPDs in the absence of acute or progressive brain injury. Methods: This is a case-control study of 74 patients with no acute brain injury undergoing continuous EEG monitoring, half with LPDs and half without, matched for age and etiology of remote brain injury, if any, or history of epilepsy. Results: Lateralized periodic discharges were found in 145/1785 (8.1%) of subjects; 37/145 (26%) had no radiologic evidence of acute or progressive brain injury. Those with LPDs were more likely to have abnormal consciousness (86% vs. 57%; P 0.005), seizures (70% vs. 24%; P 0.0002), and functional decline (62% vs. 27%; P 0.005), and were less likely to be discharged home (24% vs. 62%; P 0.002). On multivariate analysis, LPDs and status epilepticus were associated with abnormal consciousness (P 0.009; odds ratio 5.2, 95% CI 1.60-20.00 and P 0.017; odds ratio 5.0, 95% CI 1.4-21.4); and LPDs were independently associated with functional decline (P 0.001; odds ratio 4.8, 95% CI 1.6-15.4) and lower likelihood of being discharged home (P 0.009; odds ratio 0.2, 95% CI 0.04-0.6). Conclusions: Despite absence of acute or progressive brain injury, LPDs were independently associated with abnormal consciousness and worse outcome at hospital discharge.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe